Guo Mingxuan: meta contraction is conducive to the development of VR competitors, and apple XR headshow will change the industry rules

Guomingyu of Tianfeng securities recently released a lot about VR、AR Forecast data of products , such as Meta、 Apples, etc. , such as 21 Right Meta The prediction was then corrected , And said that it was only his own prediction of the market , Not official data .

today , Guo Mingxuan once again aims at the recent AR/VR Changes in the market release essay 《 after Meta Time VR/ Head shows new growth points ：Meta competitors 、 Chinese Market 、 Apple / Apple supply chain 》, Make a preliminary judgment on the above industries .

Here is the original ：

Conclusion 1

(1) In the past 2-3 year VR One of the keys to the rapid growth of the industry is Meta Sell at a loss VR Head display , And actively promote VR Business .VR industry / The ecosystem has matured , Even if Meta It's slowing down right now Reality Labs/VR Investment in business , It won't hinder VR The continuous growth of the industry .

(2) stay VR Under the background of continuous growth of the industry ,Meta Reduce VR Hardware investment will benefit others VR Head show brand . Besides , There is huge potential and demand in the Chinese market . At the same time, it is expected that 2023 year 1 Apple released in June AR/MR, It will also be conducive to the sustained and rapid growth of the head display industry .

Two 、 Affected by the economic downturn ,Meta Hardware investment is slowing ( Mainly to reduce VR Hardware investment and postponement of server orders ).

But here's the thing ,Meta Of VR Another reason for the decrease in head up display orders is the structural challenges of its core business advertising and social networking platforms ( Such as iPhone Changes in privacy policy ) The risk of recession .

(1) However ,VR In the game / The demand of multimedia entertainment has been proved ,VR The continuous growth of the industry is an obvious trend .

(2) Meta Sell at a loss VR Head gear , Take advantage of the price advantage to obtain a higher market share , But under the risk of core business recession , This strategy is unsustainable , This will benefit other existing VR The increase of brand market share .

3、 ... and 、VR/ New structural changes are emerging in the head display industry , Include :

(1) Meta stay VR The slowdown in hardware investment is beneficial to other existing VR Head show brand .

(2) China VR The industry started slowly , But hardware and content / The service market grows rapidly .

(3)Metaverse The establishment of the standard forum is conducive to the development of the industry .

(4) Apple is a game changer in the HUD industry .

Four 、 At present, it is worth paying attention to VR/ The head display brand includes Sony 、 Microsoft 、Valve、Pico、HTC etc. .

(1) Sony is playing games / The influence ratio of multimedia entertainment industry Meta stronger .PS VR2 May be in 23 Released in the first quarter of , The supply chain will be in 22 In the first 2 Quarterly shipment is about 150 Ten thousand units . It is expected that there will be more AAA Level II games support Sony PS VR2, This will improve VR Head show in the game / The influence of multimedia entertainment industry .

(2) Pico It's China's leading VR Head show brand , It's growing fast , Benefit from the huge potential demand in the Chinese market . To 2022 year ,Pico VR The shipment of head display equipment will increase by at least 40-50%, achieve 100 - 150 Ten thousand units .Meta stay VR The slowdown in hardware investment helps Pico Growth in non Chinese markets .

(3) To 2022 year ,HTC Of VR Helmet shipments will grow year on year 30-40% Or more .HTC The non Chinese market will benefit from Meta stay VR The slowdown in hardware investment . Cooperation with Lenovo Research Institute will also help HTC Of VR Business in the world , Especially the growth in China .

(4) Microsoft will be in 2H22 Release new HoloLens,Valve At present, a new headwear device is being developed . Both are beneficial to the whole industry .

5、 ... and 、 Apple will become a game changer in the head display industry .

(1) Although Apple has repeatedly reiterated its focus on AR On , But I believe in Apple AR/MR Support video perspective （VST） It can also provide an excellent immersive experience . therefore , Apple AR/MR The launch of will further promote immersive Games / The demand of multimedia entertainment .

(2) Apple AR/MR Probably the most complex product Apple has ever designed , So many existing suppliers are also Apple AR/MR In the supply chain .

(3) Benefit from Apple AR/MR Innovative experience , future 2-3 Apple and its supply chain will be re rated , Conducive to the stock price .

(4) Apple is an industry leader with significant competitive advantages , There is no need to join Metaverse Standards Forum .

(5) Apple launched AR/MR After head display , I think Apple's global competitors will compete to imitate , Lead the head display hardware industry into the next stage of rapid growth , And benefit relevant service and content ecosystems .

original text ： Ming Ming Guo