Metaverse "Drummer" Unity: Crazy expansion, suspense still exists

When yuan heat cooling of the universe,Some call themselves“筑基者”Enterprises and institutions began to intense vocal,试图为“元宇宙”正名.

其中UnityCan be said to be one of the most active players in.

6月份举行的2022 年增强现实世界博览会上,Unity CEO John RiccitielloIn his speech, high-profile for yuan endorsed in the universe：“Yuan the universe is a new generation of Internet,Is characterized by real time always、3D 为主、Highly interactive、Highly social and steady.”

UnityGreater China region President Zhang Junbo also repeatedly in the media interview that：“The future yuan universe will penetrate into every aspect of life,Scale is the game industry thousands of times.UnityShould not be just a few games and technical personnel dedicated tools,RMB should assist people to better participate in the creation of the universe.”

As the universe industry“卖铲人”,In the game engine market occupy halfUnityWhy force hold yuan universe？May have driven industry up the beginner's mind,Also hides a multivariate money“私心”.

01 On apple,Rapid development of

Unity的历史可以追溯到2004年.Three young people love games in Copenhagen a basement,Made a calledGooBall的游戏.

It is said that because of the deep experience of difficulties in the development of independent games,In the face of such predecessors as unreal engine at hundreds of thousands of dollars in licensing fees,Three young people came up with a bold idea——Let the game development engine popularization,Turn intoUnity 1.0版本的研发.

在UnityThe growth of,Apple always plays an indispensable role,Even said that for a long time in depth both bound.

2005年的苹果Worldwide Developers Conference大会上,Unity作为Mac端的扩展工具发布,同时拿下了MacOSBest system frame design.With apple's endorsement,Unity拿到了红杉资本的投资,And the headquarters moved to San Francisco from Copenhagen.

时间来到2007年10月份,新一代iPhone横空出世,Apple officially moved into an era of mobile,Can new products also lacks a game development tool effectively.短短一年时间后,UnityFormal supportiOS平台,And for a long timeiOSPlatform is the only game development tools available.

2010年的时候,UnityThe registered developers has been achieved10万人,In the same year to support the just was born two yearsAndroid,And gradually increased toPS、Xbox等平台的支持.Doing a contrast with rival unreal engine,UnityAgility is far higher than the opponent on the mobile end,虚幻引擎在2010At the end of the year to supportiOS,对AndroidPlatform support to wait2014年,为UnityLeft a rare window of time.

截止到2021年底,App Store和Google Play上前1000的游戏,超过70%使用Unity制作,The overall market share nearly50%,Second unreal engine only9.68%.包括《炉石传说》《王者荣耀》《崩坏3》《原神》, such as well-known game,均是通过Unity开发的.

后起之秀的Unity,Quietly beatQuake、Veteran unreal engine, etc,Has absolute power in the industry of game engine.The causes of which does not exclude the element of luck,But also has the necessity of tho.

Mainstream game engine currently on the market,UnityIs the only game is not based on the initial product research and development of general engine,There is no burden on multi-platform support.At the same time is different from the unreal engine developersEpicAnd apple's lawsuit,Unity与苹果、Google and other channels to maintain harmonious relationship.

比起EpicRich game company colors,UnityMore like an Internet platform,This is the rapid rise of favorable factors,Also for the permalink for its commercialization behind.

02 A bet on AD,Revenue disappointed

Compared with market share of excellence,UnityThe commercial performance of said only adequate,The market share far into revenue and profit margins.

根据Unity 2022年第一季度的财报,In the first quarter revenue of3.201亿美元,同比增长36%,Loss in the same period is about1.712亿美元,在营收中的占比为53%.UnitySynchronous cut2022财年的预期,Revenue growth is expected to22%到28%之间,不敌2021年44%的增长.

Want to sort out in the middle of the causal logic,There seems to be necessary to answer what is the game engine,以及UnityWhat are the main sales channels of？

Before the game engine appear,Game production must write code from scratch,Development not only low efficiency,There are a lot of repetitive work.The game engine provides developers with a set of reusable framework,Generic code modularity for developers to call,And like“搭积木”一样“拼”出游戏.

2007年到2012年的时间里,UnityEnergy is mainly put on the market expansion,At that time the entire mobile game market is still at the outbreak of eve.2013年,前EA全球CEO John Riccitiello加盟Unity,And the next year was appointedUnity的新任CEO,随后Unity Ads正式上线,Try to through the built-in advertisement in-game advertising revenue system and developers to share.

在John Riccitiello的主导下,UnityBusiness model gradually establish,Formed the three major sources of income,The developed solution、Operations solutions and strategies customized programs.

Development of solution mainly provide creative and development platform for developers,Profit model for the subscription,包括Unity Pro、Unity Plus、Unity Enterprise等产品;Operational solutions designed to help developers on game content to liquidate,譬如Unity Ads、Cloud hosting services, and so on,UnityCan undertake profit to smoke,Or monthly charge service fee.

This is a poison the unreal engine.

2014In the market share of the unreal engine has low to3%,Epic的灵魂人物Tim SweeneyForced to blowing the horn of counter-offensive：UE4Engine officially open source,Developers can get freeUE4 的所有工具、所有功能、All platform availability、全部源代码、完整项目、Sample content、Regular updates and Bug 修复,Only to the application after the release of quarterly earnings more than3000Work charge $5%的版权费.

结果就是,The market share of the unreal engine is not high,But a lot of big development team's heart;UnityAdvertisements divided into there is topic,For a lot of games is just,Advertising is equal to the sacrifice to some extent the user experience,最终Unity AdsThe customer is given priority to with long tail game,Although dominated the game engine half,Ability to revenue is less than a millions of active users of mobile game.

03 Crazy expansion board,蓄水养鱼

UnityThe business model and have not logically self-consistent,As long as the developer's volume is big enough,盈利只是时间问题,And do not rule out the possibility of brewing out other revenue means.

所以Unity对“元宇宙”Has a heart of love,一旦“元宇宙”The concept of the ground,Game engine service object will no longer be confined to the product,建筑、汽车、工业、智慧城市……凡是需要3D内容的场景,都将是Unity的目标客户群.

In the days of yuan universe concept popular in,UnityQuietly turn in completed status,By the game engine gradually to“Digital productivity tools”转变.

An important node is2020年.之前的UnityNo shortage of m&a action,先后将Multiplay、Vivox、deltaDNA等收入囊中,But are to improve the ability of the game engine.2020年后UnityAcquisition speed faster and faster,Directed at yuan universe.

单单是2021年,Unity就收购了3D数据处理软件Pixyz、Vegetation and natural environment to generate softwareSpeedTree、Remote desktop and streaming media supplierParsec、Artificial intelligence (ai) audio chat analysis platformOto、The film and television special effects companyWeta Digital……At present many products have been included in theUnity的开发解决方案,Hope in yuan technology on the layout of the universe once again beat rival.

2022年1月24日,Unity宣布收购Ziva Dynamics,The latter is the core technology of by imitating the muscle、Fat and skin soft tissue such as the physical properties of the,Create the most vivid3D角色动态.At the same time using deep learning model to train all kinds of creatures and characters,通过ZivaRTThe expression of plug-in real-time drive.而后Unity将ZivaVirtual human dynamic advertising map on their website,And bending down into“虚拟人”Application of battle.

Crazy expansion in yuan universe trackUnity,Whether to take on the commercial synchrotron？2021In the second quarter earnings on the phone,Some analysts asked a similar question,但UnityManagement to give reply is：The next year or two strategic choice not to raise prices,But allow more users to useUnity.

正如Unity CEO John Riccitiello的观点：“Yuan universe will release massive real-time3D内容需求,This will pull the company continue to grow beyond the game field.”UnityGreater China region President Zhang Junbo also said：“If the game market is steadily linear growth,So the game market is exponentially growing.”

Compared with the rise in price increase,UnityStill in accordance with the strategy of water fish.Especially under the dongfeng yuan universe,If it can be used as a“Digital productivity tools”The creator of service the actual symbiosis times,等待UnityMarket prospect is not game market can match,也有利于UnityIn the next few years to maintain high growth momentum,And then to the capital market new vision and new story.

04 路径依赖,Suspense alive

就当下的市场格局而言,UnityMost likely to get the meta Julio cruz chess of the universe,Products and ecological integrity may be over old rivals, the unreal engine.

比如UnityThe number of developers have more than150万,In addition to the game also gradually realized with building、汽车、Retail scenarios such as cover;Unity Assest Store Provide source material for thousands of free or charge of plug-in set,Help save developers time energy;Unity ConnectIs for the game、美术师、XR Developers are looking for the right job;UnityThe developer community has a lot of answering questions、Explain the document scarce resources such as……

The uncertainty of yuan universe also indisputable fact that,可能要三五年,May 10 years can be born,留给UnityThe suspense is still there.

On the one hand is an external multiple pressure.Unreal engine not only see the meta window of opportunity to the universe,Some not commercially since research engine in life.One hand《堡垒之夜》等平台的Epic,频频在“元宇宙”In a concert、And diffuse power such as well-knownIP联动,And the same scenario that extends to construction、影视、直播等领域.Even in the layout asUnity那般激进,Depth and breadth is not lostUnity.

Besides, in the capital market to understand,UnityHas been engaged in binding and yuan universe.Unity在2016年和2017Years successively completed two financing,Background it isVR掀起的热潮,It was said that there are70%的VR和AR内容是使用Unity引擎开发的;2020年Unity的IPO进程,Is closely related to the rise of yuan universe,以至于UnityThe stock price and“元宇宙”The heat of the direct link.

On the other hand is inside the path dependence of.UnityBusiness ability has been criticised the object,A large part of the reason to blame for the advertising business.然而在2022年Q1财报中,John RiccitielloAt the performance of repeated advertising business growth of confidence on the game：“Prime-time television in about an hour18分钟的广告,The average per hour game players see only4分钟的广告.”

随后UnityWith mobile advertising platformironSource合并,UnityThe game engine and editor、Unity Ads、Unity Gaming Services将分别与ironSouce的Supersonic、LevelPlay,And the analysis of the game service to,You want to create a game that covers a complete life cycle、Game the category, as well as a large platform of upstream and downstream the link,进而增强Unity的盈利空间.

This doubt just that.

UnityOn the yuan universe layout of courage and boldness to let a person admire,But it is not the only option for developers,On the business model has failed to give a bright new plan.

Advertising not only is the most common way of cash on the Internet,To the user experience of games and yuan the universe,Immersive accounts for a considerable proportion of,Developers are willing to sacrifice the user experience and impose AD？Different choice corresponds to the different market outcomes.

The game market has at least verify,The main source of revenue is still the users to pay,Even some game in the use of advertising system,Also tend to be paid from AD version or functions,Game ads living space mainly concentrated in the long tail and paying willingness not to be strong in casual games.Yuan cosmic time users will love advertisement rather than experience first？

但愿这一次UnityNo bet on the wrong.