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Game NFT Market: opensea's most easily cut cake

2022-06-22 18:29:00 【Babbitt information】

Original author ：Peter,IOSG Ventures

This article is only for Industry learning and exchange , Does not constitute any investment reference

TL; DR

1、 Verticalize NFT The trading market will rise , erode OpenSea market share

2、 game NFT The trading market is expected to become one of the first successful vertical platforms

3、 The current game NFT Trading market ecology has taken shape

4、 game NFT The trading market will occupy a more important niche in the future

In the past year NFT The market is crazy . It seems that from a certain moment , Well-known stars have bought NFT, Replace twitter and other social media avatars with cartoon animal pictures , Plus the bull market hype and wealth effect, most people begin to understand from this time NFT And participate in it . Many companies will also NFT As one of the marketing means , Like Adidas 、 Lining 、 McDonald's 、 Louis Vuitton et al .

NFT It has become a cultural phenomenon . People buy NFT （ Especially the avatar PFP NFT）, Join a community that fits your personality , Through online and offline gatherings , Connect with like-minded people .NFT The key to becoming a community , It fills the sense of belonging that people need . Stimulated by the star and wealth effects , It gradually has the characteristics of luxury goods and investment goods .

Numbers can tell everything ： according to Nonfungible.com The data of ,2021 year NFT The size of the transaction is 170 Billion dollars . And the number is 2020 The year is just 8200 Thousands of dollars , Increased by more than 200 times .2021 Held or traded in NFT Your address exceeds 250 m , And this number 20 The year is just 8.9 m . And this among them , The vast majority of transactions take place in general motors NFT Trading market OpenSea, It once occupied more than 98% Market share . Lean on 2.5% Transaction fee of , Its maximum monthly income exceeds 3.5 Billion dollars .

However , With NFT The number of users has skyrocketed , Yes NFT There will also be different needs , And spawn more types and functions NFT Further development . On the premise of expanding the market value of the market segment , Universal NFT The trading market will gradually be replaced by the vertical market . This is nothing new , We are web2 The world has seen similar things happen , such as eBay The market share of is divided by several vertical markets with core categories .

The next cycle , yes OpenSea Representative General NFT Marketplace The moment of separation . We will see more vertical trading markets start to grab OpenSea Share . The author thinks , Benefit from real utility , game NFT The trading market is expected to become the first batch of successful vertical platforms .

Universal NFT The break-up time of the trading market

The current blockchain ecology is just like that of the last century 90 The Internet Ecology in the s . When eBay stay 1998 When listed in , its GMV have only 1.05 Billion dollars , But it already has the largest number of users in the global e-commerce website . In the U.S. , At that time, less than half of adults had used the Internet , Fewer people use e-commerce platforms , It is hard to imagine that a certain platform can survive by selling a certain category , But to 2013 year ,eBay Of GMV Already achieved 830 Billion dollars , Almost everyone has learned to use online stores to shop .

eBay It is still an online store containing everything , One can buy clothes 、 Books 、 Electronic products, 、 furniture 、 The real estate 、 Hotels and even places with all kinds of strange things . Although it once dominated the industry , But in the past few years , its GMV The growth rate has slowed down considerably . The most important reason is , More and more vertical platforms are slowly eroding eBay Market share , Subvert the original eBay Dominant areas .

source ：Disrupting eBay: The Rise of Vertical Marketplaces

Justine and Olivia Moore stay 2018 Year describes eBay The breakup trend . Once consumers focused on... In order to meet all their needs eBay Trading on the platform , And then gradually moved to a more professional vertical platform . In these vertical markets ,Etsy、1stdibs、 Airbnb、 Chegg and Zillow The total market value exceeds 1300 Billion dollars , yes eBay at present 300 Several times the estimated value of billion dollars . What can be seen from this ？ At the initial stage of e-commerce development , The number of users is not large ,eBay It has been able to meet the needs of this part . With the influx of new users , The demand for specific categories has expanded , The vertical market can carry these users , And create a bigger cake .

Follow eBay It's like ,OpenSea stay NFT The field is also a general-purpose trading market occupying an absolutely dominant position . It was built on the previous bull market , And become the market leader in this round , Once occupied 98% Market share . If you look back at history, you can see that the vertical platform has surpassed eBay It took nearly ten years , but Web3 Internal business changes are faster , We are expected to see an increase in Crypto The market is like OpenSea This kind of NFT General Marketplace The breakup of will happen faster , Here's why ：

1.OpenSea Non exclusive content providers 、 The commodity recommendation mechanism is relatively backward

First , All in OpenSea On the list NFT Assets are not the exclusive content of the platform . Simply speaking , Because of all NFT Assets are all on the chain , There is no such thing as OpenSea Exclusive and not available on other platforms NFT assets . Other platforms only need to read the contract on the chain to display all NFT series .

in addition ,OpenSea There is no perfect discovery and recommendation NFT The mechanism of . At present, we often take “ Recommend afterwards ” In the form of , For example, display the ranking list of transactions and recent hot projects . It's hard for creators to rely on OpenSea To increase their sales , And users can't get interesting and suitable projects from the recommendation mechanism , You can only get information about what projects are hot . The reason behind this is ： It is difficult to make recommendations for pure investment financial products , Only games and music with strong content NFT More suitable for recommendation mechanism .

2.Web3 The friction of user migration in the world is less

Because all assets are on the chain , The trading platform can easily read the data on the chain and put it on the shelves NFT series . Yes NFT Come on , The core of liquidity comes from the seller's pending order operation , Because many users use the aggregation platform （ Such as Gem） Search for low prices NFT. in other words , To rob OpenSea The liquidity of , The core is to encourage the seller to pay the bill . at present , The cost for the seller to migrate to other trading platforms lies in opening an account and authorizing NFT Of gas fee, comparison web2 The platform needs to fill in a lot of information 、 For a series of cumbersome operations such as qualification review and even deposit payment ,web3 The migration friction has been very small . For buyers , Connect your wallet and you can buy on different platforms .

3.OpenSea Liquidity barriers are not insurmountable

OpenSea Lack of user incentives , The liquidity business barriers established in the early stage are gradually losing . Earlier this year, , There comes OpenDAO,LooksRare And so on OpenSea Launch a vampire attack , Use platform token to reward OpenSea Loyal users of .LooksRare For a time, the trading volume of has exceeded OpenSea. burgeoning NFT Trading market X2Y2 Iterating with fast functionality 、 Experience better UI/UX And extremely low transaction rates （X2Y2: 0.5%,OpenSea: 2.5%） preemption OpenSea Market share . In order to avoid misleading volume trading （ According to the transaction amount ,OpenSea The market share is insufficient 20%）, We can also see from the proportion of active people OpenSea There is a downward trend in the share of .

in addition , And DeFi Different fields , The same NFT It can be put on the shelves in multiple trading markets at the same time , signify NFT Liquidity is more easily transferred and dispersed . Professional traders are often on the shelves of multiple trading markets at the same time NFT.

source ：Dune

4.OpenSea Mismanagement , There is no obvious gap in brand value

OpenSea The problem of poor management has been criticized by users for a long time . Its security , Also constantly questioned , The platform reputation is constantly stolen 、 Fraud and contracts bug And other malignant events .OpenSea There are a lot of fake and counterfeit NFT series , The platform takes a long time to accept complaints , The rights and interests of developers and users are not guaranteed . This may , Its home page incorrectly recommends a phishing PXN Of NFT series , The trading volume has reached as high as 3600ETH.OpenSea Our contract also had bug, Make many boring apes NFT So it was sold at a low price , Bring losses to collectors .OpenSea In terms of security and credibility , There are not too many competitive products , The brand moat has not been built yet .

NFT Trading market vertical ecology

Long term observation NFT Trading market circuit , I also saw things like Rarible, LooksRare, X2Y2 Of and OpenSea Positioning direct competitors that are more similar （ Some of them also have good trading volume ）, But we think we can make a bigger cake in the future 、 transcend OpenSea Not necessarily or probably OpenSea Direct competitors , Instead, a package focuses on the verticality of a certain segment NFT trading platform .

NFT Not only JPEG. In terms of format ,NFT Divide into JPEG、MP3、MP4、SVG、iframe、 Array 、 Matrix, etc . In terms of categories ,NFT Divided into collections （PFP）、 Pure art 、 Virtual world class 、 Games 、 Music 、 Sports 、 Equity, finance, etc .

Tasha Kim summary NFT The verticality of the trading market is as follows . In the main categories , We can see that the vertical ecology has been preliminarily established , Like games （Fractal, Lootex, DMarket）, Music （Catalog, Glass, Roya）, Arts （SuperRare , Sloika, Foundation） etc. . Some platforms have made good achievements , And the emerging platforms have also received a lot of financing .

source ：The Unbundling of OpenSea

that , What is the motivation for users to migrate to a vertical platform rather than stay on a common platform ？ Let's go back to tradition again Web2 Under the vertical evolution path of the platform eBay Reasons for eventually falling behind the vertical market ：

1、 Certification services ： For some products , People have a strong need for certification , Reduce the risk of buying fake goods . And in the eBay The goods on the shelves are not guaranteed to be authentic .

2、 The quality control ：eBay Do not control the quality of products on the platform , As a result, a large number of defective products and garbage fill the platform , It's hard to tell good from bad .

3、 Price guidance ：eBay Do not classify the same kind of goods , And give the lowest price reference , It is difficult for users to find a reasonable price in tens of thousands of returned results .

4、 The community is missing ：eBay Lack of a close sense of community , It is difficult to encourage users to repeat purchases and actively participate in both markets .

If the vertical market wants to compete OpenSea Market share , Also provide general NFT What the market cannot offer , such as ：

1、 Audit system improves content quality ： For subdivided areas , It is necessary to appropriately raise the threshold of access , Filter high-quality items for users , Reduce user losses .

2、 Targeted design in subdivided fields ： The platform can be optimized for specific categories UI/UX, For example, art can provide 3D Immersive gallery , For example, the music category introduces player settings, etc .

3、NFT Pricing services ： For certain NFT, Such as equity 、 Finance and games , Have the ability to generate interest , have access to DCF The model priced it .

4、 Building communities ： For segmented areas NFT More likely to build cohesive communities , For example, the game trading market guides players to exchange game experiences , Even facilitate the exchange of assets between different games .

game NFT The rise of the trading market

So in NFT The eve of the imminent outbreak of the vertical platform track , What kind of platform might be the first winner to come out ？ game NFT The trading market is the most potential seed player .

game NFT It has always been the second largest Collector's exchange NFT category . With NFT The arrival of the bear market , Collection categories whose hype value is greater than actual utility NFT Trading data may continue to decline .NFT It will evolve in the direction of paying more attention to intrinsic value . according to Nonfungible.com The data of ,2021 New year's game NFT The turnover reached $51.7 Billion , Plus the virtual world category that can be classified into the game category NFT $5.1 Billion , The total transaction amount can reach 56.8 Billion . Press 5% Royalty calculation , game NFT The profits generated are $2.84 Billion . According to the Nansen forecast , To 2023 year , The total profit of the game industry is about $2000 Billion , The profits of the blockchain game industry can reach $50 Billion , About of the addressable market 2.5%.

source ：Annual Research Report from Ark Invest

game NFT yes NFT The most obvious use case . game NFT It's nothing new . As early as 2017 year CryptoKitties Is the first batch deployed in Ethereum One of the games on . Although now PFP NFT Occupy a major share , But in the face of speculation in question , game NFT Always come forward with practical results .

For collectibles or works of art NFT Come on , The stories and collections behind it give it value . But the game NFT In addition to meeting the first two , It also provides the additional value of possibility , Users can really participate , Immerse yourself in it . Usability is a sustainable development direction , Expanded NFT Addressable market .

source ：The Compelling Case for NFT Gaming

Blue chip PFP NFT Also in the narrative of the game , Provide more value support .BAYC Series launched a game brand Otherside, future BAYC The holder can use... In the game NFT avatar . in addition , Such as Cool Cat, Doodle, Pudgy Penguins, Azuki And other series have plans to launch games .

Although large game developers are more likely to build in-game NFT Trading market , Users are also more likely to prefer to stay in the game and Trade , Instead of jumping to other platforms to buy and sell . however , An open platform can also bring many advantages to the game ：

1、 Game community ： The platform can provide a larger community than a single game , You can see the appreciation and evaluation of the game players on the above , The community leaderboard and achievement system make the platform a more immersive place than a single game .

2、 Cross selling opportunities ： Platform based data recommendation , It can also promote the cross selling of games and game assets . When different game assets converge on one platform , add NFT Interoperability of , It can realize the asset exchange of different games and the cross game migration of assets .

3、 Asset pricing and comparison ： In the short term, the power source that drives users to play chain games is Yield, Open platforms can take advantage of the rich attributes of game assets , And give price suggestions by referring to the prices of other interest bearing assets , Convenient for users to compare .

4、 Targeted improvement ： Official markets often have many disadvantages , Such as limiting the type of currency 、 Fixed price 、 High rate 、 Do not open aggregate transactions and batch transactions . Open platforms can make targeted improvements .

even web2 Relatively closed ecology , around CS:GO There are dozens of third-party trading platforms established , such as CSGORoll, Skinchshier, CSmoney, SkinMonkey, DMarket etc. . stay web3 The world , Because a trading market can cover multiple （ Theoretically infinite ） Game NFT assets , game NFT Trading market GMV Will be considerable .

game NFT Trading market ecological case

Eden Games： Universal NFT There is a game board in the trading market

Maigic Eden Is similar to OpenSea Common to NFT trading platform , Focus on Solana Public chain Ecology . and Eden Games yes Magic Eden Designed for game developers 、 A one-stop platform launched by game players .

Eden Games The following functions are temporarily included ：

1、 Special game list ： Each game introduction page contains a game trailer , The content display page shows the social content and description of the game , And the game contains NFT.

2、 Content center ： Game content recommendation mechanism , Help players quickly find what they need .

3、 Game channel ： Regularly hold game tournaments , Invite community members to participate , And offer rewards .

The platform provides ：NFT consulting 、 Customized casting 、 Promotion marketing 、 User security and other support services .

idea ：Magic Eden Itself is Solana Dominant in the chain NFT Trading market （ stay Solana The transaction volume ratio of OpenSea high ）, The platform has... Every day 150 Million active visitors , Monthly 1000 Million active visitors .Eden Games Preparing to make full use of Magic Eden The huge flow that comes with it , Become a game and a game NFT Discovery layer and distribution platform . The giant plays the game in person NFT The trading market has natural flow and liquidity advantages .

Eden Games

Fractal： Vertical game NFT Trading market

This platform is made up of Twitch Co-founder of Justin Khan The establishment of a , Focus on blockchain games and games NFT. It's designed for NFT Games create a more secure trading market , And provide them with promotion and distribution services .

Fractal The value of life comes from ：

1、 High quality games NFT Launchpad：Fractal Adopt a strict audit system , At present, only 5% The applicants for , There are more than in the pipeline 20 Items are waiting .

2、Fractal Provide game specific NFT-fi Related services , Such as borrowing 、 pledge 、 Fragmentation, etc .

3、Fractal Will be the best game management and discovery layer , Give game developers access to consumers .

idea ：Fractal It doesn't develop games , And the back is not backed by the already formed NFT giant （ Such as Magic Eden）. throughout web2 A successful game platform , Such as Steam、Epic even to the extent that TapTap, There are seed users brought by the parent company's self-developed game bundle .Fractal It is hoped that the positioning as the management and discovery layer of the game needs to overcome more resistance .

Fractal

DMarket： The fusion Web2&3 The platform of game assets

DMarket Designed for game developers 、 The player 、 The host 、 E-sports Club builds a digital asset trading platform worth billions of dollars . The difference is ,DMarket The blockchain technology is used to access web2 game （ Such as CS:GO and Dota2） As well as web3 game （ Such as Decentraland） Middle skin and other tradable game assets （ More than NFT）.

idea ： In traditional games , The most profitable game is often to own “ Skin economy ” The big DAU Free game , Billions of digital assets circulate in the secondary market every year . in fact , As early as 2016 Years ago , There are platforms that trade game assets with bitcoin, such as OPSkins, Such third-party platforms use Steam Of API Access to other payment systems , And bypass Steam Set many restrictions （ For example, each weapon cannot exceed 1800 dollar ）. Such platforms contain a large number of traditional players , It's transformation web2 Players to web3 An important entrance to .

DMarket

Looking forward to the future

There's no making without breaking .Axie Infinity In the last year 8.6 After reaching the profit peak （ Income of the day $17.5M）, Up to now, the daily income has been insufficient $10K. The narrative of blockchain games is changing ,play-to-earn The model of is also being questioned , And with Axie Infinity Of “ Failure ” Even gradually become an industry “ Consensus ”.

source ：

https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/projects/axie-infinity

But we should also see the good side ：Axie Infinity The total profit is as high as 13 Billion dollars , Its token AXS FDV Highest up to 430 Billion dollars . After the market goes down , Now there are 30 Billion dollars . Without cryptocurrency economy , use Web2 Development mode Axie Infinity It will never achieve what it is today .

Although in the past two years NFT The industry exploded , We are still in the early stages of the industry . according to Hootie Rashidifard The study of ,2021 year 6 Month data show , have only 13% The United States has bought cryptocurrencies , This figure is only 3%. Number one Axie Infinity current DAU about 300K, This number will only be less after removing accounts with multiple wallets . and Web2 DAU The highest game Roblox Data up to 8.6M. This shows that there is still a lot of room for blockchain .

source ：Am I Too Late?

NFT It's the primordial universe 、 The underlying elements of blockchain games ,NFT The trading market is the cornerstone of the digital asset economic system . Dedicated to the game NFT The trading market is expected to become the first successful vertical platform in the future . But in addition to the basic trading functions , We can see the game NFT The trading market is expected to become the discovery layer in the game ecosystem .Web3 How to get users of the game has always been a hot topic .

Web2 The game's customer acquisition method and profit calculation are very clear ： advertising → Get users → User retention → Compare LTV and CAC Calculation ROI. However ,Web3 The game is squeezed by regulatory compliance on the advertising buying side , The conversion rate on the user acquisition side is low , Difficult to estimate the profit side LTV And so on . Use the present web2 The way to promote web3 The game will encounter sky high prices CAC, Difficult to recover costs （ Unless free-to-play, The blockchain is built into the bottom layer to avoid being discovered by users ）. at present web3 The mainstream promotion method and profit source of ： Community seed user accumulation → Airdrop diffusion → Crypto In loop flow promotion → INO/IDO financing → NFT Secondary transaction fee + Token value （LTV）.

source ：

https://flow-with-heart.notion.site/Web2-Web3-075e6dc8b0a04afe9e46e13db8aa858c

such web3 Promotion depends on community fission , The requirements for the project founding team are quite high , Can't quickly reuse to other projects . Exaggeration point , This has CX attribute . Production and promotion processes that are difficult to reuse , Nor does it conform to the large number of projects approved by the game industry 、 Fast iteration 、 test 、 Optimized or obsolete production processes , In addition, the uncertain business model mainly relies on the transaction fees of the secondary market , Eventually lead to CAC and LTV Difficult to predict .

The business model of chain tour has not been realized yet , It just shows that the market pattern is far from finalized , There are still many opportunities for entrepreneurs . And web2 Our platform charges advertising share 、 Different business models such as game draw , game NFT The platform can only rely on one or two levels NFT transaction （ Or focus on secondary trading ） Keep the platform running , Greatly reduce the burden on game developers . With the large-scale adoption of blockchain games , Future games NFT The trading market can occupy a richer niche , Undertake user acquisition 、 Users find 、 User retention 、 Cross promotion between games and user migration , And lead the development of the industry .