22022 more than half , No new air outlet

source ： Deep burning （ID：shenrancaijing） author ： Wang min.   edit ： Xiang Xiaoyuan

The investment rhythm of the whole market is slowing down .

2022 More than half a year , The wind stopped .

In the first half of the year , The pace of the entire investment market has slowed down significantly , The investment amount in the first quarter decreased by nearly half compared with the same period last year . Relevant data of Zero2IPO Research Center shows that ,2022 In the first quarter of, there were... In China's equity investment market 2155 Starting investment , Year-on-year decline in 27.5%; The disclosed investment amount is 1968.22 RMB 100 million , Year-on-year decline in 47.1%.

In the past six months , Complex international environment 、 A global economy full of uncertainty , And Beijing 、 The epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places has been repeated , The institutional fund-raising environment is worse 、 Activity decreased significantly . Many investors have been on the sidelines for a long time , Getting more and more cautious . Although there was no online education in the market last year 、 Community group buying and other large-scale track collective contraction events , But the overall trend is not good , There is not even a new air outlet .

After the cold of new consumption last year , Investors focus on two main directions , It represents the next generation Internet and the future Web3、 Metacosmic plate , And carbon neutrality with obvious policy and capital dividends 、 Hard technology sector . among ,Web3、 Related companies in the field of new energy , In the first half of the year, the valuation increased significantly .

In the cold winter of the market , Whether these directions are real future or short-term foam , There is no final conclusion yet , But this is one of the few places in the current market where we can see the direction of growth .

Carbon neutralization 、 Hard technology ： The remaining tuyere new energy ：“ Do not invest in new energy now , Like 20 I didn't buy a house years ago ”

“ Do not invest in new energy now , It's like 20 I didn't buy a house years ago ”, Recently, economist renzeping's sentence has been widely spread . In his opinion , The present , New energy related industries are the most promising industries for China's economy in the future 、 The most explosive field .

“ Hard technology is one of the few industries that is still relatively prosperous this year ”, Hard technology investor linjialiang also expressed to shenran ,“ First half of this year , In particular, some new energy projects are developing at a faster pace .”

With some track investors affected by the economic environment 、 Policy factors affect the initiative to slow down the pace of investment , An investor in the field of new energy pointed out , The agency wants to speed up , But affected by the epidemic , Forced to slow down the pace .

For example, Zhang Hong, a new energy investor in Beijing, said ,“ Many projects , Don't go to the site to make adjustments , It is impossible to make the final investment decision .” Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year , He missed two projects that he had been following for a long time .

Under the influx of capital , The valuations of some projects in the field of new energy have gone up . A hard technology investor mentioned , An insignificant new energy company , Just after mass production , Valuation is the first step 20 $ ,“ It's really crazy ”.

Subdivisions in the new energy sector , In the secondary market , This 6 month , Wind power 、 Photovoltaic 、 Lithium battery in A Stocks and related sectors rose sharply . In the primary market , Energy storage 、 Hydrogen energy is the focus in the first half of this year .

As a photovoltaic 、 The energy storage industry, which is an important supporting link for the development of new energy such as wind power , It has become the focus of energy transformation , It's the realization of “ Double carbon ” The only way . According to the forecast of Everbright Securities , To 2025 year , China's energy storage investment market space will reach 0.45 Trillion yuan ,2030 Annual growth to 1.30 About trillion yuan . According to linjialiang , Some companies in the field of energy storage , The annual revenue can increase several times .

The specific term , At present, the main energy storage methods are , Electrochemical energy storage is widely used 、 The development potential is the greatest , At present, lithium batteries are the main products , And has entered the stage of large-scale commercial application .

According to the data of Zero2IPO Research Center ,2016 year -2022 First quarter , The number of investment cases in China's clean energy sector is mainly concentrated in new energy power generation 、 Energy storage field , The proportion of investment cases is 38%、34%; Investment in energy storage , The investment activity of energy storage lithium battery is the highest , The number of investment cases accounts for... Of the total investment cases in the energy storage field 75.9%.

Hydrogen energy is another focus , This year 3 Released on 《 Medium and long term planning for the development of hydrogen energy industry （2021-2035 year ）》 of . It means , Hydrogen energy has risen to the strategic position of national energy .

The industry also knows , Hydrogen energy is still a long way from large-scale industrial implementation .“ Storage and transportation of hydrogen energy , The cost is too high ”, Zhang Hong pointed out , But this does not affect the high attention of the market .

Semiconductor chip ： Heat does not decrease. , But valuation correction

With continuous policy support , The domestic substitution in the field of semiconductor chips has accelerated in the past two years . Relevant reports of Zero2IPO research show that ,2022 In the equity investment market in the first quarter of , Semiconductor and electronic equipment industry is the industry with the highest amount of investment , reach 448.02 One hundred million yuan , Compared with the second largest industry IT In the field of 353.03 Billion yuan is nearly 100 Billion .

While absorbing countless amounts of money , There is also a foam in the semiconductor field . As early as 2021 year , The seizing of high-quality projects in the semiconductor field has been very fierce , The early financing amount of the industry is basically hundreds of millions of yuan . There is a view that , At that time, it had become the hardest hit area of the foam .

Zhang Hong will focus on new energy this year 、 The new material , It is because of the semiconductor project , It is often the head star and large organization involved .“ These large institutions have raised the valuation of the project especially high , Split up the share .” His organization began to worry , The valuation of the primary and secondary markets of the semiconductor sector is seriously inverted , Whether we can still get a reasonable return in the end , therefore , We are very cautious about investing in the semiconductor field .

“ last year , The market is expecting too much from the semiconductor field , This year is somewhat lower than last year .” Linjialiang pointed out , since this year on , The valuation of some semiconductor projects in the primary market has been loosened , The rise of valuation has slowed down significantly .

Part of the reason why valuations tend to be conservative is , The growth rate of the global semiconductor market is declining . The data recently released by the world semiconductor association shows that , expect 2022 The growth rate of the semiconductor market in 15%, The growth rate is lower than that of the previous year 10% about , and 2023 The growth rate slowed down further in , Expected to be 5%. The demand for mobile phones and other terminal markets is declining , It also leads to overcapacity in the semiconductor field , There is “ Chopping single tide ”.

The correction of the secondary market is also part of the reason .A The stock market on the field , Semiconductor projects have broken one after another 、 Valuation decline .4 month ,5 home IPO Of semiconductor companies ,4 Home breaking , Among them, Weijie Chuangxin fell by... On the first day of listing 36%, The market value has evaporated nearly 10 billion yuan . Including Aojie technology 、 A large number of semiconductor companies, including Guoxin technology, still suffered long-term losses after listing . from 2021 year 11 Month begins , At home A The semiconductor sector continued to decline , By the end of this year 4 End of month , The sector index fell more than 30%.

Although the semiconductor industry received the most funds in the first quarter , But the financing amount , Compared with last year, there has been a decline . Relevant reports of Zero2IPO research show that , During the first quarter , The number of financing in the semiconductor and electronic equipment industries increased year on year 11.8%, And the amount decreased year on year 19%. Besides , Investment and M & A events at the industrial end of the semiconductor field are also increasing , Head institutions are expanding their industrial lines in the form of mergers and acquisitions , Build the advantage .

Against the background of the global slowdown , At home , The domestic substitution in the semiconductor field is still of great concern , After all, the overall localization rate of China's semiconductor equipment industry is still in its infancy . After the false fire of investment fades , The market can return to the law of rational development .

Meta universe 、Web3： Hot and controversial parallel metauniverse ： The time has not come , Bury your head in paving the road

Second half of last year , The concept of the meta universe , But it is also after the public realized that the meta universe can not be realized overnight , The heat went down .

however , Industrial end 、 The investor's enthusiasm for metauniverse has not decreased significantly . In the virtual human related to the meta universe 、 social contact 、VR/AR Other fields , There is no shortage of large companies .

Since the beginning of this year , Virtual digital people have become the darling of the investment community , In the first month, it raised nearly 100 funds , Accumulated amount exceeds 4 One hundred million yuan . Bytes to beat 、 Tencent and other Internet companies 、 Entertainment company , One after another, they are laying out virtual digital people , Release digital human products .

VR/AR Although there is no technical innovation in this field , However, it does not affect the industry's optimism in this field . Some people think that ByteDance has the potential to grow in the future , One is TikTok、 The other is VR equipment Pico The business division in which it is located . LuoYongHao also said publicly recently , The direction of starting a business again is AR, call AR It's the next generation of computing platforms .

Metacosmic social class APP They are constantly hatched . First, the gel goes online and then quickly goes off the shelf 、 The Party Island under byte, which is regarded as a meta universe social product by the outside world, is also under internal test .6 month , Once the “ Live first ” Yingke company changed its name to “ Reflect the universe ”, And to transform the business to the meta universe .

For the distant metauniverse , What investors pay close attention to is the technological innovation in the field of infrastructure construction . Wang Sheng, partner of Innolux angel fund, has been focusing on metauniverse in the past year , Pay special attention to relevant infrastructure projects .

“ Now let's talk about the realization of the metauniverse , It is equivalent to that the roads have not been repaired , Water and electricity have not been connected yet , Disney will be built ”, Wang Sheng pointed out , The basic construction of the meta universe is still at a very early stage . Take virtual digital people for example , One side ,3D The production cost of animation is very high and the cycle is long ; On the other hand , It should have been an immersive digital human 3D image , At present, it is still mostly presented in the form of short video .

He thinks that , Metacosmic infrastructure should focus on the following directions , Including computing power and infrastructure , To support the massive computing needs of the meta universe ; Artificial intelligence technologies such as AI Perceptual algorithms to enhance the virtual real connection ;3D Construction of graphics and related production tools , To build a virtual digital space .

“ Next three to five years , The meta universe must first be upgraded at the infrastructure level , Only on the basis of continuous improvement of infrastructure construction , There will be rich content ecology .” Wang Sheng said .

Web3： The meta universe has not yet arrived ,“ Next generation Internet ” Go ahead ？

stay 2022 The concept of Nian yuan universe is relatively “ convergence ”、 Industrial end 、 When the investment side is laying the road ,Web3 It has become the hottest and most controversial outlet in the venture capital circle .

Web3 Based on blockchain , Emphasis on decentralization , Compare with Web1.0 The era can only read information in a static one-way way ,Web2.0 Era users can read 、 Writable information , Participate in interaction ,Web3.0 Time , Users can read and write information , And have ownership of the data .

In Wang Sheng's opinion , Compared with the meta universe, it is the innovation of productivity ,Web3 It is the innovation of production relations . On the basis of the gradual maturity of the underlying technology of blockchain , How to build an economic system 、 Accelerate the landing of applications , It's exploration Web3 The focus of the field .

Web3 Why can fire , Partly because , It is fast in the eyes of some investment institutions “ Make rich ” New areas of . Overseas , More and more companies are valued at ten times 、 A hundred fold increase , Bring ten times to investors 、 A hundredfold high yield .

Since last year ,a16z、Paradigm And other venture capital institutions , Have set up billions of dollars Web3 fund . This year, 6 month , Sequoia Capital has launched a total scale of 28.5 Two new funds worth billion dollars , Will expand Web3 Field investment , according to an uncompleted statistic , Only this year ago 4 It has been invested for nearly three months 20 home Web3 company .

Web3 Field unicorns also appear one after another .Web3 Safety company CertiK On 4 Announced the completion of 8800 Thousands of dollars in B3 Round of funding , The post investment valuation reached 20 Billion dollars （ about 120 RMB ） .5 month , Crypto financial service provider Babel Finance complete B round 8000 Ten thousand dollar financing , The valuation 20 Billion dollars .

“Move to Earn”Web3 game STEPN Also since last year 11 After the launch in June , It was announced that the valuation had broken through within half a year 10 Billion dollars , The circulating market value of platform tokens exceeded 200 Billion dollars .

An investor mentioned to shenran , It is different from the traditional primary market investment , some Web3 The investment mode of the project is to develop Token, After unlocking , The organization can exit quickly , The lock-in period is short , Liquidity is also better .“ Compared to the distant metauniverse ,Web3 The tempting thing is , It can be quickly realized and profitable ”.

however , The other side of high yield is high risk ,Token The token mechanism is Web3 A catalyst for ecological development . A huge complex 、 Fast growing and unregulated areas ,Token If the mechanism is not perfect , It may lead to disastrous consequences , Bring huge losses to investors and ordinary users .

In recent days, , By the Fed's interest rate hike 、Luna Thunderstorm and other factors , The price of bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, has also plunged one after another ,6 month 19 Early morning , Bitcoin once fell below 18000 dollar , Hit a 2020 The lowest since the end of the year .

Besides ,Web3 The risks of application cannot be ignored . With STEPN For example , Its presence 5 After the announcement of checking mainland users was released in late September , The price of tokens has been plunging , At one point it fell 40%.

so far ,Web3 There are still big disputes in China , Some people think , It cannot be defined by blockchain technology alone Web3. and , The circulation of cryptocurrency is restricted by compliance in China . Therefore , Dollar funds are flocking to Web3 Time of day , A lot of tradition VC Still skeptical .

however , Investors have a consensus that , about Web3 Learning and attention , Can't fall .

The new consumer 、TMT： Bring down a fever 、 Shift to new consumption ： From overheating to cooling

“ If we say that the new consumption investment in the second half of last year was a cooling down of the market , The situation in the first half of this year is full of sadness ”, Chenminghui, a consumer investor, describes it this way . According to his observation , since this year on , Many funds directly cut down the consumption group , There are many investors and friends who watch consumption , Or you can change your job and look in other directions , Or lose your job .

from 2018 In, he began to pay attention to the consumption field , Chenminghui can be said to have witnessed the whole cycle of new consumption from going up the wind to returning to rationality .

2019 The horn of new consumption sounded in the year , Perfect diary 、 Energetic Forest 、 New brands such as three and a half tons rely on Internet traffic , Soaring sales , The capital rushed into mass action , Rush for new consumption .

To 2021 In the first half of , The investment and financing of new consumption has made great progress , It has become the hottest track for investment and financing in the whole industry . The data show that ,2021 In the first half of, the number of consumer investment and financing reached 333 rise , The total amount of financing exceeds 500 One hundred million yuan , Than 2020 The total amount of financing for the whole year is even higher .

But since the second half of last year 7、8 Month begins , The number and scale of financing in the primary market began to decline significantly .2022 The year was even colder , According to incomplete statistics of blue shark consumption ,2022 year 4 month , A total of... Have been announced in the new consumption field 71 Investment and financing events , comparison 3 Of the month 98 rise , Reduction in chain ratio 27.6%; Compared with six months ago （2021 year 11 month ） Of 128 At first it was cut 44.5%.

Behind the cooling of the primary market , It is the stock price of new consumer brands that plummeted in the secondary market 、 Market capitalization . Since listing , The share price of Naixue's tea once plummeted by more than 75%, By 6 month 21 Japan , The share price of bubble mart is still lower than the issue price , Compared with the highest share price, MARUMI's market value evaporated more than 200 One hundred million yuan .

The secondary market does not pay , The operation of new consumer enterprises has also encountered difficulties . Since the beginning of the year , New areas of consumption , layoffs 、 Put up the shutters 、 The declining trend of continuous losses is getting worse .

“ Investors find , After the project growth fails to match the expectation , The valuation foam began to burst ”, Chenminghui pointed out . actually ,2021 Since the second half of , Practitioners gradually understand , New consumer brands have fallen into the dilemma of playing failure , Achieved explosive growth with Internet traffic , When the flow bonus ebbs , Brands that lack the motivation for sustainable growth will fall into a growth dilemma .

Now chenminghui's organization , Still looking at consumption , But more restrained and rational .“ The project we recently invested in , Both are minor innovations under the relatively mature market demand , Probably not very ‘ sexy ’, But it is relatively stable and visible growth and income ”, He said ,“ The basic price of China's consumer market is still , Every year, there will still be 35 segments of the head of the circuit , All we have to do is grab these heads ”.

TMT： High growth is no longer , Investors change careers

Insiders talk about the rise of new consumption outlets , It's always necessary 2019 That year TMT Investors' turn .

TMT By technology 、 The three English letters of media and communication are integrated , But in the last decade , The popularity of mobile Internet , Also let TMT The word "Internet" has become synonymous with the direction of the Internet .

However ,TMT But now it encounters periodic challenges .2019 in , The dollar fund has abundant funds , We are looking for the next air outlet . Mobile Internet Era , The market Matthew effect is obvious , The valuation of a leading company can rise 100 times a year .

but 2019 Since then , Investors find , There are few such opportunities in the market , byte 、 A lot of spelling 、 It is difficult to duplicate cases like meituan .2019 year , Li Kaifu, the founder of innovation factory, once pointed out , The dividend of mobile Internet is gradually disappearing , Investors should seize the next growth point driven by technology .

Since the third quarter of last year , The amount of investment and financing in China's Internet sector is declining ,2022 The decline was particularly evident during the first quarter of the year . According to the relevant reports of the Institute ,2022 First quarter of 2009 , The amount of Internet investment and financing in China 35.1 Billion dollars , Reduction in chain ratio 42.6%, fell 76.7%.

TMT Investment in the field has declined , It is closely related to the situation of the Internet companies . An investment banker said , Since last year 7 Since the month , Investment Banks' TMT The business presses the pause button , Into the cold winter . Once the high-speed development of the market led to monopoly 、 Excessive competition and other behaviors emerge in endlessly , In the past year , Regulatory authorities are also anti-monopoly 、 Oppose the disorderly expansion of capital and make great efforts to rectify . Closing of the listing channel , It also leads to more TMT Investors adjust their direction .

before , Some investors are switching to new consumption , But in the second half of last year , The investment logic in the Internet field is cold after the new consumption field , They are trying to turn to hard technology again . However , The threshold for hard technology investment is high , Investors with industrial background have more advantages , Many lack industrial background TMT investors , Then the yuan universe 、Web3 Looking for opportunities for new exports .

But all in all , In the field of investment , The myth of creating wealth in the mobile Internet era has disappeared .

“ Just stand on the tuyere , Pigs can fly ”, stay 21 In the golden age of Internet development in the first 20 years of the 20th century , Capital has created one outlet after another . Get into 2022 year , The Internet industry has entered a downward turning point , Coupled with the instability of the economic environment , Whether it's investors or entrepreneurs , Need to be more cautious .

* Respondent's request , In this article, Zhang Hong 、 Chenminghui is a pseudonym .