The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, Powell "let go of doves" at 75 basis points, and US stocks reveled

7 month 28 Early morning 2 when , The Federal Reserve issued the latest interest rate decision , Raise the benchmark interest rate 75 BPS to 2.25% to 2.50% Section , thus ,6-7 The monthly cumulative interest rate increase reached 150 BPS , The range is 1980 Paul in the early S - Volcker is the biggest since he took charge of the Federal Reserve . At the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell talked about the possibility of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes , Interpreted by the market as a dove signal . Then U.S. stocks rose sharply , The dollar fell in the short term . The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by leaps and bounds , It means the end of the monetary easing cycle after the epidemic .

How about the market performance and the trend of interest rate hike in the future ？

After the Federal Reserve announced its decision to raise interest rates , There has been no major fluctuation in the financial market . But after Powell's press conference , US stocks soared , S & P closed higher than... For the first time in seven weeks 4000 spot , NASDAQ Index 100 rose 4% gen 20 Best month , The dollar fell to a session low , Two year Treasury yields fell below 3%. From the specific data , As of the close , Dow up 436.05 spot , Increase is 1.37%, newspaper 32197.59 spot ; Index inflation 469.85 spot , Increase is 4.06%, newspaper 12032.42 spot ; The s&p 500 rose 102.56 spot , Increase is 2.62%, newspaper 4023.61 spot .

source ：Wind

source ：Wind

source ： The Internet

According to the relationship between the reverse movement of interest rates and stock price changes , US stocks “ abnormal ” There may be two reasons behind the sharp rise , One is Powell's release of dove signals , Or ease the market's worries ; The other is that the market interprets it as a signal of all bad things , Market investment sentiment is gradually restored . however , It is worth noting that , US stocks in 5 month 、6 There has been a sharp rise in interest rates during the month 、 The drama of the next day's sharp fall . Local time 5 month 4 Japan , The Fed raised interest rates as scheduled 50 BPS , The Dow rose more than 900 spot , But on the next day, it was rare that it fell by more than a thousand points . Local time 6 month 15 Japan , The Fed raised interest rates as scheduled 75 BPS , U.S. stocks rose across the board that day , But the next day, the NASDAQ plunged more than 4%. Whether a similar situation will appear this time remains to be further observed .

For the Fed, which has attracted much attention from investors 9 The trend of interest rate hike in August , Powell said whether to implement the unconventional interest rate hike again depends on the economic data , If necessary, we will not hesitate to take greater action . As interest rates become more restrictive , It may be appropriate to slow down the pace of interest rate hike at some time . But the Federal Reserve has also learned from the lessons of previous forward-looking guidelines that have repeatedly failed , Not right 9 The monthly interest rate hike gives clear guidance . If next 7 The month and 8 The monthly inflation data showed a downward trend , be 9 The interest rate hike may slow down to 50bps, And if it reaches a new high or there is no obvious decline , It does not rule out the Fed continuing 75bps Interest rate hike ,9 month 13 Released by the day 8 month CPI The data may have important reference significance .

What impact does the Fed's unconventional and continuous interest rate hike have on China's economy ？

In terms of overall impact , if , The United States continues to tighten rapidly , For a period of time, the dollar is in a strong position , There is a pressure on the RMB , But if the United States can better control inflation , The inflationary pressure on China's imports will be less , It will reduce imported inflation . Because the demand of American goods market and energy market is not so strong , There will be no inflationary pressure on China . But it will have an impact on China's export demand , Looking back from now on , China will definitely increase domestic demand development , If the US economy slows down , It's bad for us .

Monetary policy , With Japan 、 Compared with EU countries , China is less dependent on energy imports , The impact of imported inflation is relatively low , Consumer prices are more stable , China's monetary policy operation pays more attention to the internal needs of economic development . Allocating RMB assets is conducive to dispersing risks . at present , Except Japan , The world's major central banks followed the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy , And China's monetary policy remains stable , There is still room , Marginal improvement of economic expectation , It will support RMB assets .

On the stock market , The Federal Reserve has entered a tightening cycle , For most risky assets , The valuation level may all decline . But yes A Shares are different , At the current time , The epidemic situation in China has been controlled in stages , The economy of major cities is recovering , At the same time, it should cooperate with the strong economic stabilization policy ,A Stocks will have strong support . When the valuation of global risky assets declines ,A The valuation of shares may remain stable , But the possibility of a substantial increase is not high .

Sum up , At the end of the day , The Fed's interest rate hike will have a negative impact on China's capital flows 、 Monetary policy 、 The exchange rate may cause a certain impact , But overall , The impact is relatively small , Our monetary policy is stable and unique , It has been proved that it can withstand the test and risk impact .