Under inflation, how to operate in the future? 2021-05-14

 

5 month 13 Bad news suddenly came out of the No. 1 market ： First, the U.S. Department of justice and the internal revenue service will investigate the currency security ; Two is GBTC The negative premium is expanded to 20.48%, Set a new low in history .

I don't know whether it is affected by these messages , At that time, the market began to fall sharply , But I still think such a decline is a good thing , I hope the market can calm down in this fall , Investors can sort out their emotions in this fall , To better meet the next second half .

Such a decline is not worth paying too much attention to , On the contrary, another thing deserves our attention ： That is, the inflation index recently released by the United States has exceeded 4%---- This figure is much higher than that set by the Federal Reserve 2% The inflation target of , It also greatly surprised the market , Therefore, the market is worried about the Fed raising interest rates , So the news came out , US stocks plummeted .

Not only America , China's recent national assembly also began to focus on preparing for the rise in commodity prices , Next, a series of measures issued by China also show that the country is consciously tightening the liquidity of the market , Prevent runaway inflation .

All these data illustrate one point ： At present , The growth rate of inflation has been far faster than the market once predicted , If not controlled , Inflation will have serious side effects on the economy .

What does this have to do with our digital currency investors ？ The relationship is very close , Because the next trend of the overall digital currency market , In addition to the development of some projects within the market （ As I mentioned yesterday Uniswap The second level expansion and Ethereum EIP1559） Relevant external , It is more related to the degree of money drainage .

Now in my opinion, the next key factor is the degree of water release , The degree of water release is fundamentally determined by the U.S. government , What the U.S. government has publicly stated so far will affect the release of water is inflation and economic trends .

After the inflation index of the United States is released , What will the US government do next ？ We can also see one or two from the most common logic . That is, although the situation is extremely embarrassing , But I'm afraid the U.S. government dare not lightly say that the policy is tightened .

On twitter , Doctor Zhang Wenhong said in a video recently , Before the outbreak of the epidemic in India , The global expectation of epidemic control is optimistic , And after that , Expectations are pessimistic again --- I'm afraid full liberalization is unlikely in the short term .

If the world cannot resume normal traffic , The economy can't get through the meridians , Economic development cannot make people optimistic , So on this premise , If the government tightens policy 、 Check the drainage , Then the economy may deteriorate again . And for America , If the policy is tightened , Not only will the economy deteriorate again , And the stock market will plummet . And the stock market is one of the few bright spots in the current US economy , Therefore, the risk of tightening policy will be very large .

So I guess , The US government will face an embarrassing dilemma next ： On the one hand, the economy is still weak ; On the other hand, inflation soared . In this situation , The damage of the hatchback , Choose the lightest ---- Will continue to release water , Endure inflation .

Then what we will see is a soaring trend of everything ： Up to the incredible level we have today .

Is it possible that the U.S. government will start to control it ruthlessly ？ I don't think this possibility can be ruled out , And once the U.S. government does , The result will be a general market crash .

In order to cope with the above two possible situations , I suggest investors take a more eclectic approach in the next market ： Keep some assets for a long time , Wait until the U.S. government really adopts tightening policies before cashing in , The other part is realized in batches when the market is close to the estimated high according to the law of the past bull market .