Is it time to buy a house now that the mortgage interest rate has been lowered?

---

Preface

If we only look at the previous year 4 Months , That must not be . Data released by the Bureau of statistics shows ,4 In June, the growth rate of real estate development investment hit the lowest level in recent ten years . The sales area of commercial housing fell by 40% year-on-year , Property market “ Kim San Yin four ” and “ Indian summer ” I have broken my appointment .

But also from 4 In the beginning , The optimization policies of the real estate market have come one after another , Mortgage interest rates have also been lowered repeatedly , In particular, the lowest interest rate for the first house can reach 4.4%, Close to the lowest level in history . How should the property market go next , It has become a topic of common concern for the industry and property buyers .

With 5 The epidemic situation improved at the end of the month , The property market has finally improved . According to the data of Zhongzhi Research Institute , In addition to the decline in month on month transactions in first tier cities , The second line 、 Transactions in third tier cities have all recovered . For ordinary buyers , Whether you just need to live by yourself or improve and upgrade , Whether the policy and credit will be loosened , Usher in the window period of house purchase ？ In response to this question , The reporter of Beijing Youth Daily interviewed experts in the industry , From policy 、 Land supply 、 Market trends and other aspects of the property market to explain the latest changes . Can you buy a house ？ Perhaps you will have your own answer .

One , policy

1. Optimization of property market regulation

2. The threshold for buying a house has been lowered

Can I buy a house now ？ The policy is the first to bear the brunt of the impact on the property market .

according to an uncompleted statistic , By 2022 year 5 end of the month , There are already 150 Many cities have joined the camp of policy optimization , The number of regulation and control reaches 300 Times or so . According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute , only 5 In June, the new policies for the property market were released nationwide 110 More than one .

If you carefully summarize all the property market policies , It can be grouped into three main points ：

One 、 Make more people qualified to buy houses . Including relaxation of settlement conditions 、 Relax the purchase restriction period 、 Increase talent introduction, etc . since this year on , Including Changsha, Hunan 、 Suzhou, Jiangsu 、 Jiaxing, Zhejiang 、 Chengdu, sichuan province 、 Dongguan, Guangdong 、 Xi'an, Shaanxi 、 Tangshan, Hebei 、 Shenyang, Liaoning, Dalian and other cities have issued policies to relax settlement and purchase restrictions , Some are open and settled 、 Cancel or lower the purchase restriction threshold in this city , Lift the restrictions on outsiders to buy houses ; Some are to relax the purchase conditions for families with many children , Allow the introduction of talents to purchase houses, etc , Increase demand .

Two 、 Lower the purchase threshold . The main performance is to adjust the proportion of down payment , Give deed tax subsidies 、 Consumption voucher subsidies, etc . Some cities in order to stimulate the demand for housing , Make adjustment on the down payment . for example , Taiyuan, Shanxi 、 Luoyang, Henan 、 The proportion of down payment for the first set of housing in Nantong, Jiangsu and other cities decreased to 20%; Hainan has relaxed the down payment ratio of second-hand housing provident fund . Besides , There are also direct cash subsidies for house purchase , such as , Anhui Mount Huangshan 、 Luzhou, Sichuan and other cities will give the highest total housing payment 2% Subsidies for . Zhoukou, Henan 、 Yiwu, Zhejiang Province, subsidizes the deed tax on house purchase in a certain proportion .

3、 ... and 、 Lower mortgage interest rates . The central bank is 5 Announced in January , Down regulation 5 More than years LPR by 4.45% On the basis of , The minimum interest rate of the first house can be reduced 20 BPS , That is, the minimum loan interest rate for the first house is 4.25%. In the current Beijing property market , The interest rate cut is also the only deregulation policy that Beijing actively follows .

5 end of the month , Several banks in Beijing have confirmed , Beijing mortgage interest rate follows the latest issue 5 Market quotation rate of annual loan （LPR） It's down 15 BPS , At present, the interest rate of the first house loan has changed from the previous 5.15% Down to 5%, The loan interest rate of the second set of housing was increased from the previous 5.65% Down to 5.5%.

in fact , since this year on , Banks in many cities have gradually lowered their mortgage interest rates . Experts generally agree that ,LPR There is also the possibility of downward movement . Accordingly , In the future, the lower limit of the first mortgage interest rate may continue to be explored , So as to be closer to 2009 The lower limit of mortgage interest rate in . Buyers will also get more benefits .

Two , supply

1. High quality homestead increased

2. Lower land pricing

The present , The supply of land market can best reflect the future market trend . The supply of residential land has increased , Hot plots are sought after , The premium rate remains at 15% following , It means that the supply of real estate market will be sufficient in the future , The new price is still strictly restricted .

According to statistics , Beijing has provided land intensively twice this year , A total of 31 The land , The land transfer fee is nearly 980 One hundred million yuan .

From the shooting experience , The confidence of real estate enterprises in the Beijing market has been restored , The real estate enterprises participating in the auction reached 30 home , Central enterprises 、 State-owned enterprises 、 Regional urban investment, etc “ national team ” Still the main force , vanke 、 Gezhouba 、 Shounong development and other long lost real estate enterprises appear again .

From the supply side , The land price of the second batch of Beijing land decreased 、 The allocation and construction decreased , Some plots of commercial housing guide prices even appear upside down . for example , The number of plots of Pingfang village in Changping that have been put on the shelves again has decreased 4.75 Ten thousand square meters of public rental housing will be built , The land price of Tuqiao new town decreased 3.2 One hundred million yuan , Pingxifu plot is relatively small 2021 The guiding price of commercial housing in has been reduced 3000 element / Square meters , Fengtai xiaowayao plot is lower than the surrounding guidance price 5000 element / Square meters , The sun palace 、 The price limit of the two popular plots in yalinxi is also upside down with the surrounding second-hand houses .

Yue Wei, a senior analyst at Beijing Chain Research Institute, believes that , These changes have expanded the space between the land acquisition cost and the sales price limit , Better sales prospects , It is conducive to the long-term stability of the regional market price level .

3、 ... and , trend

1.“ hold-all ” Abundant reserves

2. There is still room for adjustment in the capital property market

As for whether the capital property market can buy a house now , A very important reference index is the trend of future regulation .

Before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday , There was a rumor in the Beijing market that “ House and loan ”, Cause market volatility . But in fact, the policy is still strictly implemented . Regarding this , Guoyi, chief analyst of Heshuo, told the Beiqing daily , Actually , Beijing “ hold-all ” Li has already planned a package of policies , But how to implement it , It should be combined with the periodic changes of the market , Step by step .

As for whether to cancel “ House and loan ”, Guo Yi said , This is actually a sensitive policy , One side , It will play a great role in raising the lever ; On the other hand , Once cancelled, it may also make the investment 、 Speculative demand is making a comeback , So for “ House and loan ” Adjustment of , It will be a cautious process .

From the perspective of possible policy adjustment , Beijing's control policy will stabilize house prices 、 Stable price 、 Stable expectations “ Three stability ” Target . Guo Yi said , With 5 The market trading volume in January was obviously down , It may also be a window period for policy ice breaking , But the strength of specific policy optimization and easing , Should still keep a small step forward , Gradual adjustment .

58 Zhang Bo, President of the branch of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, also said in an interview with Beiqing daily , At present, the first tier cities including Beijing , Relaxation at the level of purchase and loan restrictions will be particularly cautious , At present, the reduction of mortgage interest rate has had a significant impact on the market , More consideration will be given to marginal relaxation in the future , for example , Limited relaxation in key peripheral areas or moderate relaxation combined with fertility .

Four , voice

Whether to buy a house now ？

Many potential buyers are worried about , Gradually relaxed regulation and control policies will affect the trend of house prices . that , Should we consider buying a house this year 、 Where to buy more suitable has become the most concerned topic .

One thing is for sure , In the second half of the year, the pace and total amount of new stocks entering the market will be significantly greater than that in the first half of the year , The dual factors of the epidemic situation and the cooling of the real estate market led to the slowdown of the overall new market in the first half of the year ,“ Kim San Yin four ” as well as “ Red May ” The performance of the market is less than expected . With the epidemic under control , Economic recovery and development , The property market performance in the second half of the year will be better than expected .

Zhang Bo thinks , Including Shanghai 、 Many cities, including Beijing, have basically returned to normal production 、 Order of life , The demand for house purchase is naturally put on the agenda . therefore , From many internal and external factors , Can support the rebound of real estate transaction volume , But at present, the residents' confidence in purchasing houses is insufficient , Especially affected by the epidemic in the early stage , Optimistic expectations about their future jobs and income have declined , Recovery takes time , Therefore, the large-scale rebound of trading volume is expected to be in the second half of the year .

For those who buy houses and live by themselves “ Just need to ” For the purchase group , The moment is indeed in a window period , Especially on the front line 、 The window period of second tier hot cities may be shorter , We need to focus on .

As for the specific room changing strategy , Guoyi suggests , The differentiation of Beijing market is very obvious , There is a big gap in the price trend in different areas . for instance , Wangjing in the North 、 The four rings of Haidian 、 The overall housing price level of the Fifth Ring Road is still in a stable and slightly rising state , But south of Beijing , Like Daxing 、 The second-hand houses in Fangshan District are in a declining state , therefore , For those who buy new houses by selling old ones , Which area to transfer to , It also requires comprehensive market performance , Do more research , Make the right choice .

Besides , The choice of a new house , People in the industry also said , Just need and improved house purchase demand are in the current market , Have more say , You can visit more sales offices , Carefully compare and choose . At the same time, we should also refer to the price of the surrounding second-hand houses , With the help of the stable period of the market , Ask developers for a relatively reasonable market discount , Once the price meets psychological expectations , It means that the time to buy a house has come .