Real estate industry reshuffle

This article outlines ：2021 The real estate industry has been advancing steadily before , Although the sudden epidemic hit the industry unprepared , starts 、 The progress of land acquisition has been seriously frustrated , But the most fundamental demand for housing is still , The willingness of home buyers still exists .

The real accident is 2021 In the second half of .2021 year 7 month , Send documents to regulate the real estate market , Second hand housing guide price 、 Restricted business loan 、 Home purchase restrictions 、 restricted 、 Heavy measures such as cracking down on real estate speculation have been significantly increased and upgraded , A massive three-year rectification action of the property market has been carried out nationwide .

2021 year 9 month , Head of the real estate enterprise under the banner of Evergrande “ Evergrande wealth ” The product is exploded and cannot be cashed , There are rumors of suspected thunderstorms , Just like the first domino that fell , Produced a series of negative chain reactions ,

After Evergrande , China has more than 100 billion 、 Trillion real estate enterprises have been thundering , Obviously, this is not the problem of poor management of individual real estate enterprises , But the whole industry is facing a huge crisis .

1、 Room for not stir , The purchase restriction policy reversed the upward trend

2、 Late delivery , Credit is lost in a vicious circle

3、 Create value , Real estate needs to regain liquidity

Room for not stir , The purchase restriction policy reversed the upward trend

Chinese real estate is finance from the very beginning —— Sell the land 、 Selling a house is financing , Buy land 、 Buying a house is an investment .

Although policy makers have been trying to solve the problem through the real estate market “ live ” The problem of , But financing and consumption are incompatible in nature . Whether it's “ purchase restriction order ” still “ Control house prices ”, Macro-control has limited control over the real estate market , High housing prices seem to have become an unquestionable fact .

2020 Beginning of the year , The epidemic has brought a wave of crisis to real estate developers , The sudden epidemic made the market press the pause button . But live selling 、 Short video planting grass 、VR Daikan and other online marketing are hot , Let the real estate industry see the spring under the epidemic .

Real estate developers who survived the impact of the epidemic never thought , The challenge is just beginning .

2021 Beginning of the year , Industry changes that are more disruptive than the epidemic have taken place . People's Bank of China 、 The bank insurance regulatory commission issued “ Real estate loan restriction order ”, According to the asset scale of banking financial institutions 、 The type of organization, etc , Set the concentration management requirements of real estate loans by grades .

“ Room for not stir ” For years , But this time the buyers found that the situation seemed different . The bank is unable to lend money , The housing loan approval cycle is constantly lengthened . Several cities have successively spread the news of tightening the loan quota , The loan period was extended to threeorfour months , Even some banks stop handling new houses 、 Second hand housing loan business .

In addition to the tightening of loan policy , The central coordinating measures also include “ Excessive volume and underpricing ”, By increasing the supply of land in the market , Suppress the rapid rise of house prices , To correct the land dependence of local governments , Let the local government take the responsibility “ live ” Responsibility for .

House prices have come down , The real estate industry is beginning to show crisis . High leverage real estate enterprises that used to rely on financing to maintain normal capital turnover , Cash flow crisis due to financing constraints ; Consumers who rely on bank loans to buy and speculate in real estate , As the lending cycle lengthens, the willingness to buy decreases , It also has a huge impact on the sales of real estate enterprises .

In addition, the epidemic situation repeatedly interferes with the normal marketing rhythm , The three red lines and other policy factors squeeze the living space of real estate enterprises , Some real estate enterprises have exploded , Most real estate enterprises are deeply involved in the vortex of risk clearing , The real estate market has broken the continuous rise of house prices 、 The myth of rapid expansion , Really meet the challenge .

Such a challenge , In the final analysis, it is the result of trade-offs in real estate policy design —— If we want to achieve “ live ”, You have to sacrifice “ Fried ”. If sacrifice “ Fried ”, Economic growth will result in insufficient capital , If it is light, the economy will decline , The most important thing is to fall into crisis .

But the government's policy does not deviate from the market , With the aging of society , The urbanization rate peaked , The supply of residential land shows a decreasing trend . Governmental “ Room for not stir ” The policy has been shouted for many years , until 2021 It took years to achieve real results , It shows that the market reaction is in line with expectations , Deep ploughing and focus are replacing the bold , It has become the direction that the real estate industry has to upgrade .

Late delivery , Credit is lost in a vicious circle

The new policy for real estate enterprises , The blow is profound .

By 2022 year 5 month , Only a dozen listed real estate enterprises have publicly disclosed their annual performance targets , The number is higher than that in previous years 40 The level around home has dropped sharply . Among the real estate enterprises that publicly disclose their annual performance objectives , The sales targets of most enterprises have fallen back to varying degrees .

Real estate enterprises are facing an unprecedented crisis , Bankruptcy 、 Explosion ray 、 layoffs 、 Safeguarding rights and unfinished business have become hot words in the real estate industry . People's court announcement network shows ,2021 The number of bankruptcies of real estate enterprises in was as high as 396 home , Average daily over 1 home .

Evergrande's thunder , It is the epitome of real estate enterprises under the changing situation .2020 year , Evergrande's sales amount to 7035 One hundred million yuan , But the debt scale is as high as 1.97 One trillion .

Real estate enterprises represented by Evergrande , In the process of expansion, rely on rapid growth of business scale , Take the land 、 Covered building 、 sales 、 The collection is completed within a few months at ultra-high speed , And large-scale borrowing at home and abroad 、 High liabilities of on balance sheet and off balance sheet debt .

In a stable macro and market environment , Such a development model seems to have no problem ： Upstream and downstream enterprises have orders , Real estate enterprises have made profits , Both real estate speculators and home buyers gain income through the continuous growth of house prices .

But when the policy changes , When the capital chain breaks , The past profit model has become the sword of Damocles hanging on the head of Evergrande .

“ business with no cost ” It condenses too many contradictions , Obtain funds through pre-sale of houses 、 Keep getting the ground 、 The mode of continuing financing , Make accounts payable 、 Acceptance bill commercial bill 、 Houses that have been pre sold but not delivered 、 The land that has been obtained but has not been paid has become straw that kills camels . Capital is difficult to flow , Debt is difficult to pay , Evergrande was crushed by high leverage .

In order to occupy funds , Real estate developers have tried their best ： They artificially lengthen the construction period , Slow down the payment of project funds ; They delayed the delivery , Let consumers suffer from uncompleted residential flats bought with heavy money .

And when the policy changes , The past “ wits ” Have become a drag on the development of enterprises , Real estate enterprises have been financing , Even financing at high cost , While making the enterprise bigger and bigger , Make the debt pile bigger and bigger . Such development is an expansion of the pie 、 It is an expansion at the cost of consuming consumer confidence and trust , It is also a development model that will be abandoned by the market .

On this level , Evergrande's thunder explosion is a policy response , It is also used in the market “ Invisible hand ” The result of deployment .

When there are problems in the industry development mode , When a simple demographic dividend cannot create rich profits , Capital is doomed to lose information 、 Gradually withdraw from the property market , Real estate enterprises have lost their original financing chain , Bear the huge pressure of capital turnover alone .

Create value , Real estate needs to regain liquidity

Although the state curbs the overheated development of the real estate industry , But when real estate is under heavy pressure alone , The state still needs to rescue the market .

One side , Local governments have frequently revised the previous too strict pre-sale fund supervision policy , The content involves accelerating the efficiency of approval 、 The proportion of deregulated capital supervision 、 Equivalent replacement of bank guarantee .

Such as 2022 year 3 month 1 Japan , Zhengzhou issued a new deal for the property market 19 strip , The purchase and loan restrictions have been fully relaxed , Stir the whole real estate circle . Hangzhou 、 Chengdu 、 Changsha and many other popular cities also quickly followed up , Related measures include reducing mortgage interest rates 、 Reduce the down payment ratio 、 Increase the amount of provident fund loans 、 Increase housing subsidies 、 Reduce taxes and fees on house purchase , a " have everything that one expects to find ".

On the other hand , Banks have also relaxed their credit policies . For the projects of real estate enterprises in danger , Many banks have also launched real estate M & a theme bonds , Encourage high-quality real estate enterprises to carry out M & a loan financing .

Such as 2021 year 12 month 5 Japan , The cbcirc guides financial institutions to focus on meeting the requirements of the first set of housing 、 Improved housing mortgage demand , Reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans , M & A loans were first mentioned .

But the market has obviously not come out of the pain , Repeated outbreaks 、 Uncontrollable factors such as economic downturn , As a result, property buyers generally adhere to “ Safety first ” Conservative mentality , wait for 、 There was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere .

2022 year 4 month ,70 The price of new houses in large and medium-sized cities ushered 6 For the first time in years , The sales price of commercial housing decreased and the number of cities increased , The sales price of commercial housing in the first, second and third tier cities showed an overall downward trend month on month 、 It continued to decline year-on-year .

Just like this, I have been shouting for many years “ Room for not stir ” It doesn't work , It is still difficult for the government to turn things around in a short time .

But fortunately, , With the help of the government 、 Experienced this blow , Real estate enterprises are breaking the original development model , Explore a new way of self-help .

First , Is to break the original ” Real estate “ Pattern , Improve delivery . Such as 2021 year 3 month , The first batch of commercial houses of power construction real estate Foshan Mingyue Peninsula project were successfully delivered , The rate of visiting and repossession is as high as 99.46%;2022 year 1 In June, Chongqing Longyue Huafu project was delivered in three batches ,100% Smooth delivery .

secondly , Is to break the original “ High debt ” level . For example, China Austria real estate insists on scale 、 Profit margin and debt ratio “ Triangle balance “ Business model , Rely on its own funds to develop , Do not rely on trust blood transfusion , Liquidity risk is extremely low .

Last , Is to break the original “ Extensive ” Development model . Some real estate enterprises have made intensive efforts in the region , The foundation of winning customers and market with high-quality products , Use quality as the guarantee for exploring new development models .

The pain of the industry continues , But the real estate enterprises did not sit idly by , Instead, we found a feasible high-quality development model from adversity .

Maybe in the future , House prices are stabilizing ,“ premium ” Squeeze out slowly , The era of soaring house prices in the past is difficult to reproduce , But the real estate enterprises that have gone through the waves , It will appear in front of consumers with a new attitude .