2 Wei to ：“ Take it ” Data ,“ Wriggle ” Looking forward to the future

source ： Burning dimension （ID：chaintruth） author ： LV Jingzhi   edit ： Cao Yang

When will it be profitable ？

6 month 9 Japan , Wei Lai automobile （NYSE: NIO;HKEX: 9866;SGX: NIO） released 2022 The results of the first quarter of , This is also Wei Lai 5 month 20 The first financial data after it was officially listed on the Singapore main board on the th .

Results show that , Wei Lai Yu 2022 Revenue in the first quarter of 99.11 One hundred million yuan （ RMB , If not marked below, it is the same as ）, Year on year growth 24.16%; The net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders is 18.25 One hundred million yuan , Compared with the first quarter of last year, the loss narrowed year-on-year 62.56%.

Of particular note , Wei Lai became the first quarter of this year “ Wei Xiaoli ” Three families , The only new power auto company with no decrease in revenue compared with the previous quarter .

From the financial data of the first quarter , Wei Lai seems steady “ Take it ” The growth of revenue and production capacity , But if you look at past data trends , It is not difficult to see Wei Lai “ Take it ” Behind the scenes “ Wriggle ”.

This is first reflected in the weak revenue growth . Financial data shows ,2021 First quarter to 2022 First quarter , Weilai continuous 5 The quarter on quarter growth rate of revenue was only 5-10% The range of , The weak trend of revenue growth continued for a year .

In terms of vehicle delivery , The first quarter of this year , Weilai finished vehicle delivery 25768 car , Compared with the same period last year, it also has a high 28.45% Increase of . Compare with yourself , The production capacity of Weilai has increased , But with two other new car makers —— Xiao Peng and ideal first quarter 34561 Taiwan and 31716 Compared with the delivery vehicle of , Capacity competitiveness is still slightly weak .

When business data is in the doldrums , In the first quarter of this year, the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the impact of the supply chain , Weilai's share price is from 4 The month began to show a continuous downward trend . Although this week, it was affected by the collective rally of zhonggai shares , The share price has corrected , On the day before publication 6 month 9 The daily report accepts 159.7 The Hong Kong dollar / stocks , But more 4 Monthly high 177.2 The Hong Kong dollar / stocks , There is still a 9.87% The decline of .

source /Wind  Screenshot of burning Finance / Weilai stock price trend chart

In this case , Wei Lai Yu 4 month 20 Japanese official publicity and Singapore main board “ To unite to marriage ” list , Become the first in China in the United States 、 Listed in Hong Kong and Singapore at the same time “ Three marriages ” Car companies , It has also attracted comments from the industry . Among them, there are many voices saying that Wei Lai is listed again for one more “ make or raise money by hook ” channel .

For the purpose of listing in Singapore , Founder of Weilai 、 The chairman and CEO Li Bin expressed with confidence , Listing in Singapore will help promote velai's business development plan in the world , Weilai will also establish an artificial intelligence and autonomous driving research and development center in Singapore .

However , The confident Wei Lai almost broke on the first day of the Singapore main board ,5 month 20 Japan , Wei Laiyi 16.9 New money / Shares open , Although it rose sharply for a time 20%, However, this increase did not last long before it began to fall back . Closing day , Wei Lai's increase narrowed to 2.37%, Report to 17.30 New money / stocks .

“ pin 、 production 、 Research is the three pillars of new energy vehicle enterprises , From a closer look, Wei Lai has some flaws in these three aspects , These problems can not be solved by listing more places , So it is normal for investors to have concerns or not to buy .” Regarding Wei Lai's performance in Singapore stock market , Xiao Yu, an observer for new energy vehicles, said .

As for the most talked about capacity problem in Wei Lai , Liu Ying, research director of Analysys auto travel industry, believes that , Weilai adopts the mode of OEM production, or the main reason why it is more affected by the supply chain . by comparison , Xiaopeng and ideal, who build their own factories, have relatively low dependence on suppliers , The ability to resist risks will also be relatively better .

but CIC Chai Daixuan, the Consulting Director of ZhuoZhi, thinks that the current production capacity of the new forces of car making is more temporary , It is greatly influenced by macro factors ,“ Wei Xiaoli ” There will be no qualitative change in the competition pattern of the three .

“4 month , The sales volume of the automobile industry decreased by nearly 50%. Wei to 、 Xiao peng 、 Ideal deliveries have fallen 40-60%. This is because , The output of complete vehicles in Shanghai and its surrounding areas accounts for about... Of the whole country 15-20%, The scale of parts and components industry accounts for 30% of the country . therefore , although ‘ Wei Xiaoli ’ Factories have also been deployed in other areas , But with the shutdown of supply chain partners in many places and the blockade of Logistics , And the disconnection of vehicle parts , The production of the new forces of making cars had to stop .”

Now , The impact of this year's epidemic has gradually receded , How should Wei Lai solve the stock market downturn 、 Weak sales 、 The problem of insufficient capacity ？

01 Revenue slowdown , Sales fall behind , Difficult to engage in ！

2022 First quarter , Wei Lai has realized 99.1 A hundred million dollars in revenue , Compared with Xiao Peng's in the same period 74.55 Billion yuan and ideal 95.62 One hundred million yuan , The difference is higher than 32.9% and 3.6%. From the performance of last year ,2021 year , Wei Lai realizes 361.4 Total annual revenue of 100 million yuan , It's Xiaopeng's 1.72 times 、 ideal 1.33 times .

Visual data display , Wei Lai seems to have outperformed the other two old rivals of the new power of building cars , Take the first place . However , Look at the data , But you can find Wei Lai in “ danger ”. Especially from the quarterly data , There is another clue .

2021 year , The revenue of Wei Lai in the four quarters was 80 One hundred million yuan 、84 One hundred million yuan 、98 Million dollars 99 One hundred million yuan . From the second quarter, the quarter on quarter growth rate was only 5%、17% and 1%.

And by contrast , The ideal revenue for the four quarters is 36 One hundred million yuan 、50 One hundred million yuan 、78 Million dollars 106 One hundred million yuan . From the second quarter on a quarter on quarter basis, the growth rate was 39%、56% and 36%. Xiao Peng's revenue in the four quarters was 30 One hundred million yuan 、38 One hundred million yuan 、57 Million dollars 86 One hundred million yuan . From the second quarter on a quarter on quarter basis, the growth rate was 27%、50% and 51%.

Data sources / Wei to 、 Ideal 、 Xiao Peng's financial report   Fuel economy drawing

It is obvious that the annual revenue of Weilai has been climbing the slowest . More Than This , Its turnover in the fourth quarter was also expected to exceed .

Revenue slowdown 、 Sales fall behind , Guishi “ The original sin ”？

Public data display ,2021 In, the average price of Weilai automobile has exceeded that of some second-line luxury car brands 40 Ten thousand yuan .

“ New energy vehicles are still not the mainstream of the market , Consumers' brand of new energy vehicles 、 There is no preference for performance . So the cost performance is high 、 Cars with low price range are easier to quickly popularize in the market .” Xiao Yu said to finance and Economics , by comparison , The main 30 Ten thousand yuan range SUV The ideal and key of 15-30 Xiaopeng of 10000 yuan model will have more advantages in price .

Data sources / Wei to 、 Ideal 、 Xiao Peng's financial report   Fuel economy drawing

As Xiao Yu said , It can also be seen from the data released by Huazi Research Institute , At home 30 The penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the price of 10000 yuan has reached 20%, and 40 The penetration rate of RMB 10000 is only 12%.

source / Screenshot of Huazi Research Institute

According to the data of Huazi Research Institute , end 2022 year 5 month , Wei Lai has already had 350 stores , stay “ Wei Xiaoli ” Among the three enterprises, the number of physical stores is the most . However , Its presence 2021 In, the average sales volume of finished vehicles in a single store was 267 Taiwan ranks last .

And the vehicle delivery is weak , It also reflects the lack of production capacity of Weilai .

data display ,2021 The first two quarters , Wei Lai delivered the vehicle to 20060 Taiwan and 21896 platform . by comparison , Neither ideal nor Xiao Peng has exceeded the 20000 mark .

However , In the third quarter , Weilai delivers the whole vehicle 24439 platform , Although it has improved compared with itself , But it is ideal 25116 Tai and Xiao Peng 25666 The number of units delivered exceeded , from “ The king of delivery ” Step back from your throne .

Until the end of the first quarter of this year , Wei Lai did not return to the position of delivering the champion , first quarter “ Wei Xiaoli ” The data of vehicles delivered by the three companies are 25768 platform 、34561 Taiwan and 31716 platform .

source / Wei to 、 Ideal 、 Xiao Peng's financial data are illustrated in the financial chart / Wei to 、 Ideal 、 Xiao peng 2021 Annual vehicle delivery data

It is worth noting that , Wei Lai delivers the inflection point that has been reversed , And last year 10 In January, the shutdown and rectification time of Jianghuai factory overlapped . therefore , Many analysts believe that the shutdown was one of the main reasons for the weak delivery of Wei Lai last year .

Regarding this , Chaidaixuan analysis indicates ,2021 year 10 month , Weilai will transform and upgrade the Jianghuai Weilai Hefei manufacturing base , There are only 10 Days for production , This also led to Wei Lai 10 The monthly delivery volume has fallen back significantly .“ However, the reason for this decline in sales is only the impact of short-term factory transformation and upgrading in the current month , The market is still confident in the future sales performance of Wei Lai .”

Lin Ping, director of automotive investment, is pessimistic about this .“ The impact of the shutdown may be more profound than expected . Factory from ‘ Return to work ’ To ‘ Resumption of production ’ It will take a long time , Because there are many parts for making cars , The supplier chain is complex , Lack of any link will affect productivity efficiency .” Lin Ping said , On the other hand , stay “ Core missing ” And the epidemic situation , The enterprise's ability to pay 、 Order quantity 、 The brand effect will directly affect the supply order of suppliers .

in fact , Both order volume and payment capacity are welai's weaknesses .

according to 2021 Annual financial report for , In order to reduce the inventory backlog problem , In terms of raw material customization, we have chosen “ The strategy of ordering raw materials in real time according to vehicle orders （made-to-order)”.

One side , This makes it in “ Wei Xiaoli ” Has the highest inventory turnover rate and asset utilization rate , But it will also affect its single order quantity . Gaishi automobile once said in the report that , Wei Lai and Xiao Peng 、 Ideals include the Ningde era 、 United electronics 、 Bosch 、Mobileye Wait for the same supplier , They may give priority to Xiaopeng and ideal who have larger orders .

On the other hand , Wei Lai recorded in the financial report , The payment method with suppliers is mainly a combination of cash and accounts payable . And Wei Lai's solvency is “ Wei Xiaoli ” The middle is slightly inferior .2021 year , Wei Lai's ratio of current assets to liabilities is 2.18, In the same period, Xiaopeng and the ideal current ratio are 2.71 and 4.33. Low solvency will also reduce Wei Lai's voice over suppliers .

The weak debt paying ability is also reflected in the higher debt paying pressure of Weilai . According to the results , Wei to 2021 The annual turnover rate of accounts payable is 3.01, Compared with Xiao Peng's 1.94, Higher than 55%. The higher the turnover of accounts payable , Prove that Wei Lai can provide services to suppliers “ On credit ” The lower your ability .

therefore , Taken together , The unit price is too high , As a result, there is surplus revenue and poor sales , Coupled with the shackles of inventory and production strategy , And debt service and “ On credit ” Lack of ability , These factors add up to explain Wei Lai's defeat “ The battle of delivery ” Systematic reasons for . Instead of being solely attributable to a temporary shutdown , Or collectively “ Core missing ”.

02 The loss is more than , Huge investment , To be straitened for money ！

In addition to sales and capacity ,“ When will it be profitable ？” It is also another important issue faced by Weilai and even the whole new energy vehicle industry .

According to the results , Wei Lai Yu 2020 The annual gross profit turned around for the first time , The gross profit margin of the current year is 11.52%.2021 year , Wei Lai realizes 18.88% The gross profit margin . Within a year , Gross profit margin 64% The increase of seems to be a satisfactory answer , However, the reasons behind cost control , But not very satisfactory .

Data sources / Wei Lai's annual financial report Fuel economy drawing

stay 2021 In the annual report , Wei Lai pointed out , The marginal rate of return of the new car is 20.1%, Compared with last year's 12.7% A year-on-year increase of 58.26%. The marginal rate of return in the fourth quarter was even higher 20.9%. Regarding this , Wei Lai's explanation is ,“ This is mainly due to the decrease in the amount of subsidies for car purchase .”

By contrast , It's also in 2021 Realize the ideal of increasing the marginal income of new cars in , The explanation is ,“ At the launch of a new car ‘Li ONE’ When , Because the cost of its production line is effectively controlled , And raised the price of the new model , Under the combination of the two, the marginal rate of return is 2021 reach 20.6%.”

“ Compared with ideal and Xiao Peng , The production cost of Wei Lai's new car 、 Supplier management is slightly inferior , Instead, they use less subsidies ‘ stupid ’ Methods to control costs . This kind of practice , The user experience it advocates is contrary to the brand value , Nor is it a long-term plan to control the capital .” Xiaoyu said in this analysis .

Wei Lai, who has maintained a positive gross profit income , but “ Lost ” Operating profit and net profit , This is also a common problem faced by the new forces of car making .

data display ,2019-2021 year , Wei Lai bears 114 One hundred million yuan 、56 Million dollars 106 A net profit loss of billion yuan . At the same time , The net profit and loss of ideal and Xiaopeng are 24 One hundred million yuan 、1.5 Million dollars 3.2 One hundred million yuan , as well as 37 One hundred million yuan 、27 Million dollars 49 One hundred million yuan . among , Ideal because of the use of incremental power systems , Effectively control the cost , But it is still in a state of loss .

The reason for the continuous loss of net profit of new forces of making cars , It is a large investment in R & D and marketing expenses .

According to the results , Wei to 2021 The annual R & D cost is 46 One hundred million yuan , a 2020 The year-on-year growth rate was 84.6%. The increased investment in R & D is mainly used for the development of new products and functions and the expansion of the enrollment of designers .

The recruitment expansion of Weilai designers continues . Hua Wu, a person familiar with the matter, disclosed to burning Finance ,“ This year, 3 Month or so , Before and after 6 From different business departments of Weilai HR Contacted me . My first product manager also told me , They are in urgent need of designers , And ask me the fastest time to be on duty .”

“ actually , My previous work experience and Wei Lai's design of vehicle mounted products are very vertical .” Flower dance used to be a big internet factory B End product designer , He said frankly , This is one of the reasons why she didn't join Wei Lai at last .

“ Another reason is , The interview process gave me a sense of what they wanted ‘ Take a short walk ’ The feeling of , The overall design of the business has not been completed yet , Just want to expand the team first , Trial and error iterations . indeed , Enterprises need such trial and error costs , But as a professional , I'm worried , I will be notified half a year or a year after joining the Bureau ,‘ Project stopped ’.”

Increasing R & D expenses is understandable for any technology enterprise , However, if the growth of R & D expenses cannot bring about corresponding revenue growth , What needs to be questioned is its R & D capability and R & D technology .

2021 year ,“ Wei Xiaoli ” The R & D investment at the end of the period increased by 166%、139% and 171%, The revenue at the end of the period increased by 23.75%、196.64% and 185.2%. by comparison , Tesla only uses 10.4% Increased investment in R & D has brought 70% Business growth .

For the low efficiency of the investment and research costs of the new forces of car making , Liu Li thinks , Automobile R & D is a need “ Dry burn money ” Link . At present, the self-developed technology of domestic new energy vehicles has not revolutionized the product .“ Before making a qualitative leap in R & D results , The ability of R & D to leverage revenue will not be significantly improved . therefore , How to improve the self research strength is an issue that the new forces of car making must consider .”

In addition to R & D expenses , The effective control of marketing expenses is also “ Wei Xiaoli ” Important means of competition . Chai Daixuan said to fuel finance ,“ New energy vehicles choose direct selling instead of traditional 4S Store mode , It is also to effectively control marketing expenses . The marketing expenses of traditional automobile enterprises account for about... Of the total revenue 20-25%, After adopting the direct selling mode, the new energy vehicles have the ability to control the marketing expenses at 10-15%, even to the extent that 10% following .”

Chaidaixuan added , besides , There are also problems in the dealer system, such as excessive maintenance 、 Uncontrollable factors such as uneven service levels , It is very likely to damage the brand image of automobile enterprises , These problems can be avoided through direct selling .

2021 year ,“ Wei Xiaoli ” The marketing expenses are 69 One hundred million yuan 、53 Million dollars 3.3 One hundred million yuan , Respectively accounting for the total income of the same period 19%、25% and 1.2%. By contrast , Ideal because the second and third tier markets are laid out earlier , In addition, there are few physical stores and the sales volume of a single store is the highest , Effective control of marketing expenses .

source / Screenshot of Huazi Research Institute

“ Profitability is not the only focus of new energy vehicle competition in the future .” Chai Daixuan emphasized , future , The competition focus of the whole industry will change from single product to ecosystem competition . The relationship between people and vehicles is no longer a one-way relationship between people and products , The vehicle needs to be bound and integrated with the user's life data , From travel tools to intelligent terminals , Gradually integrate into users' lives .

“ therefore , Technical hard power 、 Product matrix 、 Capacity advantage 、 Brand building and accumulation are the elements of industry competition .”

03 Listed in three places , Intended to go to sea ？

This year, 3 At the beginning of the month , Including Baidu 、 Iqiyi 、 Sohu and other Chinese stocks have been listed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission （ The following is called “SEC”） List in the pre delisting list . although ,SEC Pre delisting does not necessarily mean delisting , However, in order to avoid the risk of delisting, most Chinese companies began to return to Hong Kong for listing .

And then 5 month , Wei Lai is also listed in the pre delisting list . And Wei Lai is under such a background , On 3 month 9 The listing in Hong Kong was completed on the th , And in 5 month 20 It was listed on the main board of Singapore on the th . Since then , Wei Lai completed the United States in just four years 、 Hong Kong 、 Listed in three places in Singapore . For the listing of weilaiduo , Industry analysts generally believe that it is to avoid delisting risk .

However , It is worth noting that , With Xiaopeng and the ideal “ Dual Major listing ” Different , Wei Lai chose both Hong Kong and Singapore “ Second listing ”. Compared with “ Dual Major listing ”, actually ,“ Second listing ” Wei Lai's ability to resist pre delisting risk is lower .

Zhongtai securities has published articles in it 《 The Hong Kong stock exchange ： There are essential differences between dual listing and secondary listing , HKEx provides institutional protection —— The return of China concept shares to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ADT Discussion on the influence of thickening 》 It is proposed that , Dual listed companies , Even in the U.S. capital market delisting , Still does not affect other capital market transactions ; And the second listed companies , Because it does not fully meet the listing standards of the local capital market , Once delisted in the US capital market , Other listing positions may also be impacted .

thus it can be seen , Even if you choose to go public in three places , Once Wei Lai is delisted in the US stock market , The risk of full delisting still exists . In that case , Why did Wei Lai insist on listing again in Singapore ？

Regarding this , The relevant person in charge of Wei Lai has publicly given the purpose of listing in Singapore ： First of all , Singapore is an important international financial center , Listing can expand Weilai's investor base . second , Listing in Singapore can further increase the global tradable time and liquidity of velai shares . Third , The Singapore listing provides an alternative stock exchange location , Further protect the interests of investors .

A number of analysts also expressed different views on fuel Finance on the motivation behind Wei Lai's listing in Singapore .

Liu Ying said , At present, Singapore has replaced Hong Kong as the largest offshore RMB trading center , It has a very important economic position . meanwhile , Singapore is an important transportation hub between the East and the West , It has the function of communicating between China and the West .

“ Wei Lai chooses Singapore , More out of the consideration of the sea going strategy , While hoping to penetrate Southeast Asia through Singapore , Expand the brand influence to Europe and Australia .“

The listing of Wei Lai in Singapore is for the purpose of further sailing , Huawu also expressed support ,“ The interviewer I interviewed did mention the business scope of Weilai's further expansion to sea this year, including Europe and Southeast Asia , So they are also very interested in my study abroad background .”

Colin, director of overseas investment, believes that , First , There are many Chinese in Singapore , The recognition and trust of Chinese brands are more natural than that of European and American consumers . Wei Lai's choice of listing in Singapore will help to further promote domestic electric vehicles to overseas markets . secondly , Choosing Singapore for listing is also to broaden financing channels 、 Improve brand recognition and recognition of electric vehicles .

“ The low difficulty of Singapore's capital market audit is also one of the important reasons why Wei Lai chose Singapore .” Liu Li, a former JPMorgan Chase analyst, said frankly , Wei Lai will not issue additional shares in Singapore this time , From listing hearing to approval , It only took more than ten days , We can see their determination to further globalize their brands .

But Xiao Yu's theory is more “ Naked ”,“ I think Wei Lai is changing the land ‘ make or raise money by hook ’.”

A few years ago , The story of new energy vehicles is well told in China , therefore “ Wei Xiaoli ” All returned to Hong Kong smoothly . But in recent years , There are more doubts about the new energy vehicle technology .

such as , In winter in Northeast China or in summer in Shanghai, this kind of extreme weather , The energy consumption of energy vehicles 、 life 、 Stability and so on , And the rapid decline in the price of energy vehicles , The problem of not maintaining value, etc , Are beginning to make people feel that energy vehicles are not “ stupid tax ”.

“ In this case , It is relatively easy to go to the regulatory environment 、 There are more Chinese people in the city , Put people who haven't been disappointed in this story ‘ harvest ’ A wave of .” Xiao Yu admitted .

New energy vehicle analyst zhangxiaoyu said ,“ The core competitiveness of energy vehicles lies in the three electricity system 、 Energy consumption 、 Stability and endurance , These basic problems are not solved , The prosperity brought about by any face project will eventually collapse .”

therefore , Wei Lai is “ Take it ” still “ Wriggle ”, Still have to see the bottom .

reference ：

《“ Wei Xiaoli ” published 4 Monthly new car deliveries ： Xiao peng 9002 Most vehicles , Ideal 4167 At least 》, source ：Tech star ;

《 It is the preferred place for China concept shares to go to Hong Kong for the second time , Singapore becomes “ Dark horse ”, Three core problems to be solved 》,  source ： The securities times ;

《 Why come to Singapore for listing ？》, source ： Surging news ;

《 The second listing of zhonggai shares has become a trend ！ Hong Kong is the first choice , Singapore becomes “ Dark horse ”, Three core problems to be solved 》, source ： The securities times .

* Wen Xiaoyu 、 Colin 、 Liu Li 、 Lin Ping 、 Zhangxiaoyu is a pseudonym .