During the year, the first "three consecutive falls" of No. 95 gasoline returned to the "8 Yuan era"“

Oil prices have fallen ！ National Development and Reform Commission 26 The daily message shows , since 2022 year 7 month 26 Japan 24 At the time of its , Domestic steam 、 Diesel price （ Standards , The same below ） Each ton is reduced by 300 Genna 290 element . This is the first time in the year that the domestic refined oil price “ Three consecutive falls ”, It is also the fourth reduction in the year . Replace it with liters , Is to drop the oil price 0.24 element / l -0.29 element / l . among 92 Gasoline fell 0.24 element / l -0.25 element / l ,95 The gasoline is 92 More falls on the basis of gasoline 0.01 element / l .0 Diesel fell 0.25 element / l . After this round of price adjustment , Some parts of the country 95 Gasoline No.1 is expected to return “8 Metaera ”. If the fuel tank capacity is 50L Take the family car as an example , Fill up a box 92 No. 1 gasoline will be more 6 Spend less in the middle and late ten days 39 yuan .

From the situation of this oil price adjustment , Although the price of domestic refined oil has fallen for three consecutive times , But compared with the oil price at the beginning of this year , Now domestic gasoline and diesel prices are still at a high level . The current gasoline and diesel prices are the same as this year 1 month 17 Compared with the quotation of gasoline and diesel on , The cumulative increase per ton is still standing 1400 Yuan of above . Will the domestic oil price continue to fall in the future , We also need to further look at the trend of international oil prices . The oil price adjustment management measures implemented in China have been adjusted appropriately according to the changes of international crude oil prices . At present, professionals in the industry generally believe that , International oil prices fluctuated in the short term , There is still room for growth in the long run .

 

In the short term , The supply and demand level of oil price itself drives the engine of oil price to gradually shut down , And the influence of macroeconomic factors on oil prices is gradually increasing , The price trend of international oil prices may remain volatile in the short term . One side , Supply and demand , Consumption weakness caused by high oil prices will continue ; The United States and Europe allow traders to buy Russian seaborne crude oil and sell it to third parties , Libyan crude oil production partially resumed , It helps ease the tight supply situation . On the other hand , The poor economic data in European and American markets and the slowdown in inflation may force the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of interest rate hikes at future meetings . Judging from the recent market performance （ See the picture below ）, The fall in the high level of the US dollar gives commodities a breather , The whole is entering the rebound repair stage , The improvement of the overall market sentiment has alleviated the downward pressure on oil prices caused by weak demand performance , Let the oil price remain in the high range and fluctuate near the support .

The high level of the US dollar index fell

Data sources ：Wind

Recent performance of major commodities

Data sources ：Wind

In the long run , At present, there is no condition to break the high oil price , There is still room for growth in the long run .6 Oil prices have fallen since mid September , Mainly due to the significant weakening of the financial attribute of oil , But crude oil is still in the stage of spot premium , It shows that the fundamentals are still tight . One side , Affected by the epidemic 、 Supply chain delay and other factors , The recovery rhythm of crude oil demand varies greatly among countries , The European 、 Japan has not returned to normal , China is going through the stage of post epidemic repair , Therefore, crude oil demand is still resilient for a certain period ; On the other hand , Countries in the early capital expenditure is insufficient , It does not have the ability to increase production significantly in the short term , OPEC and other major crude oil producing countries also have the subjective will to maintain high oil prices , In the context of slowing economic growth , Major crude oil producing countries may continue to maintain a cautious attitude towards increasing production . thus , Under the effect of demand toughness and cautious production increase , There may be room for international oil prices to rise in the long run .

The increase of OPEC production in recent years （ Million barrels / Japan ）

source ：OPEC

in addition , We cannot rule out the possibility that other events will further aggravate the oil price volatility . The United States, the West and Russia 、 The sanctions imposed by Iran and other oil producing countries are the fundamental reason for the block of the global crude oil supply chain , The change of geopolitical situation will aggravate the fluctuation range of oil price . The next operation rhythm of oil prices will focus on the results of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the expected changes brought to the market by the subsequent macro level .