Path dependence - accidental decision to rely on.

什么是路径依赖？

One thing is the way it is now,Not as it should be,But some accidental reasons caused it to become like this.current and future state、Behavior is driven by past states、behaviors and decisions.Understand the concept of path dependencies,It will give you a clearer understanding of history,Make careful decisions on some key choices.简单说,We can artificially control the decisions we make now to increase the probability that we want something to happen in the future.

Two characteristics of path dependence：偶然性、There is positive feedback to reinforce.

Because chance can cause path dependencies can be a good thing,也可以是坏事.And your habitual behavior reinforces your positive feedback path,Eventually a good or bad path dependency is formed,Path dependency is a neutral word,Good or bad is only relative to the individual,Change the angle and change the environment,Both good and bad,The so-called bad is also good.

An example that is commonly used by everyone is now in useQWERTY键盘.There is a saying that the alphabetical layout of this keyboard is actually unreasonable,The reason why the original people designed the keyboard like this,It's to slow down people's typing speed,Prevent old typewriter keys from bumping together and jamming.The keyboards don't have keys anymore,You can type as fast as you can,Why use this unreasonableQWERTY布局呢？因为路径依赖.The earliest typewriter,不管是出于什么原因,使用QWERTY布局,Users at the time had to learn this layout.Users have adapted,Then a new keyboard has to use this layout.Because no one wants to re-practice a set of typing skills,Now someone has invented a keyboard with a more reasonable key layout and it can't catch on.This generation of new users adapts to the keyboard,The new keyboard adapts to the user,We are locked inQWERTY布局之中.Small events in history,Completely changed the probability of future paths.Of course Xue Zhaofeng is in his”得到app“taught in the course,实际上在设计QWERTYThe keyboard has considered the problem of path dependence,So this keyboard layout efficiency is very efficient.

In real life, there are actually many path dependencies,Some are better to change,Such as the daily commute route.As long as you know a new closer route,It can be changed immediately.Some path dependencies are not easy to change,Like the Android phone you use all the time、windowscomputer system.then let you

You will be very unaccustomed to switching to the Apple system.The same goes for Apple to Android.

Problems caused by path dependencies：

在商业上,Path dependencies bring advantages,also brought backlash.We tend to rely on things we are used to,Rely on past successful experiences,But these dependencies make it difficult for us to adapt to changing circumstances.so that when you are faced with a new scene,Lost the right to choose——表面上,你可以选A、B、C,But the path that has been solidified determines that you cannot chooseA和B.所谓成也萧何败也萧何.It can also be explained in terms of path dependencies.

Planck has a saying,The reason why new scientific truths can win,Not because the naysayers were persuaded,But because the older generation of scientists eventually died.Path dependence in thinking is difficult to change.

What are the implications for us personally：

1、Let your life not be too fixed,Give life some randomness.Like choosing a breakfast restaurant once in a while,觉得还可以,So I keep buying this one.If you need to buy more often in the future,You should try a few others,Enjoy different cuisines.This will help you find the best one.

2、Prevent yourself from falling into your comfort zone.Learn more about other fields.For example, knowledge in technical fields is updated relatively quickly,Knowing a new language or feature can improve your productivity.

3、Examine whether some of your behavior is caused by path dependence.需要改进的,And always to improve.Such as habitually saying some mantras,经常使用的工具.Need to act early.

4、Successful path dependencies,It is necessary to actively seek changes according to changes in the external environment.If the successful offline experience is copied to the online.这肯定行不通.Find the point where the two can be combined or do it in a new logical way.It's like sieging and defending a city,What is required is a different skill.

Path dependencies and other concepts explained：

1、Network effects and path dependence.For example, we all know that electric vehicles are the future,Many countries have set deadlines to stop selling diesel vehicles,But the diesel car is well equipped,Charging electric cars is inconvenient.So everyone is buying petrol cars now.Such network-dependent systems require external forces to break,such as state subsidies.

2、Sunk cost and path dependence.The sunk cost means that the investment in the early stage is not good for doing so in the later stage,There is no stroke positive feedback,We just felt in our hearts that it was a pity to give up like this.Path dependence is characterized by a positive feedback process,The more difficult it is to change,The further back you go, the more suitable you are to continue doing something similar to the previous one.Many people tend to think that the path dependence is difficult to change is a sunk cost,两者是有区别的.

3、Value network dependence and path dependence.Path dependencies are more of a habit created by chance,The value web relies more on optimal decisions at cost.