2 Trillions of hot money hit the space economy , It's really a good business ？

author ： Xia Tian   edit ： Manmanzhou   source ： Silicon rabbit race （ID：sv_race）

Elon Musk stay 2002 Founded in SpaceX, Accelerate the space race to the market stage , At the same time, the space field has successfully attracted people like DFJ Such venture capital institutions enter the market . Looking back on the past ten years , Global capital has moved to “ Space ” Lavish trillions of yuan , It is full of enthusiasm .

indeed , Space projects are closely related to cutting-edge technology , It has an innovative business model and a huge rate of return , But it is accompanied by high risk and high failure rate . Maybe , These projects have inspired Silicon Valley investors' sense of mission to explore space , While considering the return on venture capital , Plus the world changing “ Filter ”, Let them be so eager , Always enjoy it .

01

Mysterious space has attracted capital attention

In the vast universe , Whether there are aliens is still a mystery , It has been attracting people on earth to explore tirelessly .

5 month 17 Japan , The United States Congress convened 50 The first public hearing on UFOs in years . This incident triggered a heated debate , Ranked first in several hot search lists of Chinese domestic media .

Picture source ：8NewsNow

Past 2021 year , It is also known as the first year of the space travel industry . Starting a dream space trip is no longer exclusive to astronauts , More and more people have embarked on the space journey in different ways .

Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos Founded the commercial space company Blue origin , On 2021 In, I personally took the “ New Sheppard ”（New Shepard Rocket Ship） The spacecraft flew to the surface 100 Kilometers high in the sky .

This year, 2 month , The aerospace company Virgin Galactic announced that it would 45 Sell again for $10000 “ Space travel ” Plane ticket , Business is booming , Let the company's share price rise more than... In one month 10%.

Last century 90 Years ago , People's exploration of space depends on the financial resources of governments , Occasionally, there is enterprise investment , But there are few venture capital and private investment . The reason behind it , The aerospace industry is mostly linked to the military secrets of various countries , Long investment return cycle and other factors that can not be ignored .

Picture source ：GIPHY

for example , As the most adored organization of astronomy lovers , The United States NASA In addition to the well-known business , Every year, we will look for American enterprises with forward-looking new technologies through different ways , Invest in it or cooperate with both parties .

NASA It is the first space administrative organization to promote aerospace to capital operation , as a result of NASA Such institutions will also face the problem of tight funding . After all , Going out of the earth is too expensive .

NASA Give some space technology to private enterprises , Support them to devote themselves to the development of space industry . This also makes the U. S. government no longer the only institution that has mastered space technology .

From the last century 90 After the s , Telecommunications in some developed countries 、 Defense companies began to develop rockets 、 Geosynchronous orbit broadband satellite, etc . This phenomenon has been more serious in the past decade “ Infect ” To the capital market , Some venture capital firms also want to be in space “ Nuggets ”.

02

The space economy is driven by capital

VCs swarmed into space companies last year , Of course , This is also due to the global monetary easing policy .

Relevant statistics show , from 2010 Year to 2020 year , The annual equity investment in commercial aerospace in the early and growing stages is less than 1 $billion to 50 Over US $100 million .

Space Capital It is a company that has been tracking for many years “ Space economy ” American space technology investment platform , Mainly invest in the space economy , Focus on unlocking the value of the space technology stack , Such as GPS、 Geospatial Intelligence and communication , Managing more than 8000 Million dollars in assets .

According to the latest report released by this investment institution ,2021 In, the global investment in various technologies in the space field was 463 Billion dollars , And the total number of investment rounds in that year reached 512 round .

In the past ten years ,Space Capital It has been tracked all over the world 1694 Companies in the field of space technology . They come from 2012 Since, it has raised a total of 2529 US $billion global equity investment .

among ,SpaceX Of 8.5 US $billion financing and OneWeb Of 4 US $billion financing has become the two largest enterprises in this field , Next to that is ABL Space and Axiom Space.

The report divides investment in space into three categories by technology ： infrastructure 、 Distribution and application .

near 10 Year , Most investments （78%） Focus on the related application fields of navigation, positioning and timing , The total amount has accumulated to 1970 Billion dollars ; The second is space infrastructure , The investment is about 470 Billion dollars （19%）, Mainly driven by rocket launch and satellite communication investment ; The only areas of distribution involving information distribution are 83 Billion dollars investment , Invest in software and hardware development companies that connect and process a large number of ground use case data .

At the national and regional level , China and the United States are particularly keen on investment in space projects .

According to the Space Capital10 Statistics over the years show that , The total investment of China and the United States accounts for 77%. among , The United States accounts for% of the total investment 46%, rank first ; China's share of 31%, In second place .

According to xinhua news agency , By 2021 year 12 month 30 Japan , China has completed all its space launch missions throughout the year , The number of space launches reached 55 Time , Number one in the world , The number of launches and the number of spacecraft reached another record high .

In recent days, , Dongshiwei team of China Academy of space technology published a paper saying , China will be in 2028 A test satellite was launched in , To test from space to the ground 400 Kilometers of wireless power transmission technology , namely 2028 China's first solar power plant was built in space , Two years ahead of schedule . That means , Under the background of the aggravation of global energy shortage , China has begun to deploy solar power plants in space , The commercial value it brings cannot be underestimated .

In commercial space , The development in recent years has been rapid .2016 year , The state has elevated the military civilian integration of the aerospace industry to a national strategy , Support and guide private capital to participate in the development of commercial aerospace . At present, the number of active commercial aerospace enterprises in China is 180 about .

According to sky eye data ,2021 China's commercial aerospace financing in 37 rise , total 64.5 RMB （ about 9.9 Billion dollars ）.

03

Can the fiery space economy live up to expectations ？

Besides , The space economy in full swing is regarded by many consulting agencies as a potential stock in the future market , The market value is estimated from 9260 Billion dollars to the highest 2.7 Trillions of dollars , The annual growth rate is between 4.3%~9.5%.

UBS group in 2021 year 5 Monthly forecast , To 2030 year , The space business travel market driven by billionaires can reach 30 Billion dollars .

Euroconsult Think , to 2030 year , The scale of the space economy will change from 2016 Year of 2850 Billion dollars went up to 6420 Billion dollars .

Morgan Stanley expects , To 2040 The scale of the space economy in may break through trillion dollars .

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects , To 2045 year , The global space industry will grow to 2.7 Trillions of dollars .

Space projects have... In the eyes of investors 「 Hazy beauty 」, Especially when musk was at the helm Space X Successful business trajectory , It has planted an ideal anchor in the hearts of investors .

however , Is space project investment really a good business with a large profit and a small capital ？

Focus on... In this field Space Capital It also warned in its report that , The changing market environment may have an impact on this year's space investment activities . The listing boom of aerospace companies may slow down , And many listed aerospace companies will need several years to make profits .

Picture source ：TechCrunch

What kind of investment is pure ？

Undeniable? “ The world is bustling for profit ” Is the bottom logic of all businesses , But in “ All over the world ” Outer space , What ordinary people can't touch 「 The dark side of the moon 」, Whether there is another kind of purity hidden ？

Investment is a highly commercialized concept , But unlike other types of investment , Space investment seems to have an idealistic background from the beginning . Although the space economy has a long cycle 、 High technical barriers 、 High risk and high return , But once upon a time , Investors don't just look at earnings and returns , They also have a pure heart , To help those dreams that may change the world , Just like charliemunger , Walk in the business world as an intellectual .

To make a long story short , Whether the space economy favored by people in the industry can be expected in the future , Let the entrants make a lot of money , It will take time to prove . Man is exploring space , There is still a long way to go .