What impact does the European "gas shortage" have on China?

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine , The EU has launched several rounds of sanctions against Russia , It is mainly aimed at Russian energy . However , European energy sanctions have not succeeded in curbing Russia's presence in Ukraine “ Special military operations ”, Instead, it has plunged Europe into “ Gave up the ghost ” pas .7 month 11 Japan , Beixi, the largest single pipeline of natural gas from Russia to Germany 1 No. closed , Started the annual maintenance work , The gas transmission volume of the pipeline accounts for more than one third of Russia's natural gas exports to the European Union , The importance is self-evident . At present , Beixizhi 10 The daily maintenance plan will be on Thursday （7 month 21 Japan ） end , The mystery of whether to restore gas supply will be revealed . If Russian natural gas exporters still save money after the scheduled maintenance period 、 Even cut off the supply , So in this case , It will further aggravate the European energy crisis , Drag down global economic growth , Thus affecting others “ innocent ” Country . that , What impact will the European energy crisis have on China ？ 

First , In terms of industry , The industries that China may benefit from are ：1） Export products with high energy dependence . about （ Production end ） Global exports with high energy dependence , China has a mature and complete industrial chain 、 Relatively low energy cost, competitive advantage . Our country is in chemical industry 、 equipment 、 Some metal products 、 Home appliance 、 automobile 、 Electronics 、 The relative cost advantage of industries such as medicine may be more prominent .2） The development of new energy industry chain is further accelerated . The European energy crisis forced the acceleration of new energy 、 Green energy iteration process , Germany 、 The French 、 Italy has introduced policies to encourage new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry , Or benefit the production and export of China's new energy industry .3） Energy and agricultural products that benefit from the spillover effect of rising energy prices . Energy and agricultural products “ Just need to ” Rise in price , More or less will be on China's upstream cost price 、 And the price of agricultural products has a certain spillover effect ; For mastering supply resources in the industry 、 Enterprises with relatively complete supply chain , Or benefit from the rise of relevant prices , Including metal 、 Spare parts 、 Chemicals, etc .

Of course , The moment of global integration , It's hard for China to be alone . If global growth falls into recession , China's exports to the world are also good 、 Export to Europe is ok , Its current comparative advantage may not be equal to the total growth “ move in the opposite direction ”, It is more likely that it only has advantages over other major economies in the world , But overall, it is still shrinking .

Besides , The relatively damaged industries are ：1） Profits are squeezed by energy prices 、 But downstream domestic products that cannot be exported . Affected by repeated domestic epidemics 、 Factors such as real estate deleveraging drag , Total domestic demand in the second half of this year 、 In particular, domestic consumer demand may be difficult to recover to potential levels . Insufficient domestic demand , Domestic downstream consumer goods may not be able to fully pass on the cost pressure caused by rising energy prices , Profit margins inevitably suffer .2） Bulk commodities and industrial products that are greatly affected by the global recession , Such as iron and steel 、 Electronic semiconductor, etc . If Beixi is cut off 、 European industrial production decelerates , China's export of mechanical and electrical products to the EU may be greatly affected , Related steel 、 The demand for inputs such as electronic semiconductors may decline significantly .3） If Europe falls into a deeper recession , The substitution effect of imported consumer goods may not offset the sharp contraction in demand . Rising oil prices have reduced the purchasing power of European residents for other products , In particular, optional consumer goods may be greatly affected .4） Export to Russia . If the sanctions against Russia are further escalated , China's exports to Russia may deteriorate further in the second half of this year .

secondly , The impact of RMB exchange rate , overall , The RMB exchange rate may “ No surprise ”, However, it cannot be ruled out that the rise of domestic financial risks in China will increase the volatility of the RMB exchange rate . In the short term , The European energy crisis is escalating , Depress the relative attractiveness of European assets , The Bank of Japan bucked the trend and managed to maintain the control of the yield curve by passively accelerating the expansion , The depreciation of the yen against the dollar may also accelerate . Overall speaking , The dollar still has some support in the short term . Last month , The US dollar fell against the RMB 0.48%, Against the backdrop of a new high in the dollar index , The relative stability of RMB , It can be seen as a strong exchange rate . For the RMB exchange rate , Epidemic prevention and control and the robustness of its own fundamentals are still the key . Logically speaking , The appreciation of the US dollar will bring some depreciation pressure to the RMB . But while the dollar has appreciated rapidly recently , The trend of RMB is relatively strong . Compared with foreign “ Swaying in the midst of a raging storm ”, In the future, China may be “ Economic recovery + Policy care ” The combination of , The Chinese market may be funded by overseas funds “ haven ”, Probably there will not be a large outflow of funds . For the subsequent trend of RMB , Or more affected by China's fundamentals , Including the subsequent development of the epidemic 、 The recovery of China's economy and the negotiation process of Sino US trade frictions .