Perhaps in two years, ASML will be free to supply EUV lithography machines to China

ASML Recently, it has frequently released goodwill to China's chip industry , Recently, more large-scale recruitment in China 200 Employees , Enhance the ability to provide services for Chinese chips , People in the industry believe that this may be ASML For the first generation of export to China in two years EUV Prepare the lithography machine .

For well-known reasons ,ASML Unable to ship freely , It is currently unable to supply China EUV lithography , This is because EUV The lithography machine is ASML The most advanced lithography machine at present , But two years later, the current EUV Lithography machine is not the most advanced product .

TSMC said its 2nm The fastest process is 2024 Annual commissioning , It means ASML We are stepping up the second generation EUV Mass production of lithography machines , In order to catch up with 2024 In, TSMC supplied the second generation EUV Lithography machines are used to produce 2nm process , So when I came to that time, the first generation EUV Lithography machine is not the most advanced product .

Technological upgrading is also forcing ASML Improve the relationship with China's chip industry , At present, Japan has adopted... Without photolithography machine NIL Process to produce chips , The Japanese side said NIL The process can be used to produce 5nm process , For China , At present, as long as it can be mass produced 7nm Technology can meet 90% of domestic demand , In this way, China can seek cooperation with Japan in research and development NIL The process bypasses the lithography machine , In this case ASML Of course, I don't want to give up this interest .

Because the world except Intel、 Samsung and TSMC R & D 7nm And more advanced technology , Only Chinese chip manufacturers are still developing 7nm And more advanced technology , The first three have already purchased the first generation EUV lithography , such ASML The first generation of EUV In fact, only the Chinese chip is left in the lithography machine , It also forces ASML Look for opportunities to export the first generation to China as soon as possible EUV lithography .

ASML In the past two years, it has been quite popular in the global chip market , But its pain is only known by itself , Its products are only lithography machines , Limited customers 、 Demand is also limited , The periodicity of the chip industry also leads to its performance ups and downs with the chip industry .

After several years of global chip capacity expansion , Nowadays, the chip industry seems to be stepping into a downward stage , The oversupply of chips is becoming more and more obvious , The chip downlink cycle may cause ASML Live a hard life again , Its revenue fell in the first quarter of this year 19%、 The net profit is cut back , If the chip industry enters a downward phase ,ASML The days will be more bitter .

In this case , China is just ASML The market that needs the most attention ,2021 China has been ASML The biggest customers , Bought ASML About 30% of the lithography machines , If the chip industry enters the downward stage , Due to China's strategic plan to promote chip self-sufficiency , China to ASML The proportion of income contributed will rise further , So it needs to pay more attention to this customer .

However, the US approach cannot give ASML Bring more income , Today, the United States accounts for only... Of the global chip manufacturing capacity 12%, The United States intends to increase its chip manufacturing capacity , However, TSMC in the US design plant has suffered greatly from its ultra-high cost ,Intel Of Intel 4 The factory is not set up in the United States, but in Ireland , In this way ASML Listening to the demands of the United States can not bring more income , But China has been constantly ASML Bring more revenue , Based on interests ,ASML We should also pay more attention to China's opinions .

in general , Changes in the global chip market in the next two years , May force ASML Change the first generation of sales in order to survive EUV The attitude of the lithography machine , Supply the first generation to China EUV The possibility of lithography is increasing , After all, this is for ASML It is a win-win result for China's chip industry .