The US inflation rate reached a 41 year high of 8.6%! High inflation fever? The stock and encryption markets fell first!

According to the latest data released today by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics , Consumer price index （CPI： An index that measures the price movements of various goods and services ） stay 5 The month went up 1%, Bring the current annual inflation rate in the United States to 8.6%, set up 41 A record high in the past two years , Much more than economists expected .

The Bureau of labor statistics report shows that ,CPI The rise in the index was mainly due to housing 、 Gasoline and food costs increase .5 The housing index soared in January 0.6%, Is from 2004 year 3 The highest monthly increase since January , At the same time, the energy and gasoline indexes are 4 After a temporary decline in January, they rose respectively 3.9% and 4.1%.

before ,4 The monthly inflation rate fell temporarily 20 BPS , This has led many economists to believe that inflation may have peaked , The Fed's quantitative tightening policy will help to continue to reduce inflation in the coming months . according to 《 Wall Street journal 》 A survey of , Economists predict 5 month CPI by 8.3%, This is a 30 Significant misstatement of basis points .

Despite the Fed's efforts to raise key interest rates and shrink its balance sheet , But inflation is far from bottoming out , Shattered the market's illusion of cooling inflation . stay 4 After the month slows down ,5 Inflation accelerated again in January , This may have a greater impact on the already troubled cryptocurrency market .

If the Fed becomes more aggressive in raising interest rates , May push investors out of the cryptocurrency market , Sell digital assets and invest in less risky treasury bonds and bonds . Besides , according to Arcane Research A report issued in April , The price of bitcoin is more and more relevant to the technology stocks traded on Wall Street , Therefore, technology stocks and companies related to cryptocurrency will also be affected , At present, NASDAQ 100 Index and S & P 500 The index had fallen at the opening of the US market 2.92% and 2.58%.

IntoTheBlock Head of corporate research Lucas Outumuro To express ： Bitcoin is not an effective inflation hedging tool as many people think , We have seen a sustained slowdown in market investment , This trend is likely to continue .

The cryptocurrency market is not responding well , Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies in the past 24 It fell in an hour 4.2% and 7% above . Other cryptocurrencies have been hit harder , Include Solana（ fall 9%）,Avalanche（ fall 10%） and Cardano, The latter has fallen in the past day 11% above . in fact , Inflation will force families to spend more of their budgets on necessities such as food and rent , This will dampen the demand for digital assets .

However , In order to reduce inflation to 2% The target level of , The Fed may have to start raising interest rates to... For the first time 50 More than BPS , Or increase the speed at which they shrink their balance sheets . This will increase the cost of credit , Reduce the money supply circulating in the economy , Reduce consumer demand for goods and services , It will eventually affect the whole market .

summary

The fever of inflation never subsides , The Fed can only take risks , Cooling the market through tightening macro policies 、 Cooling economy , But if you raise interest rates too aggressively , It could lead to a further recession . For now , The Fed seems to be in a dilemma , However, the latest report shows that their breathing time is running out .