Exness: the Central Bank of England will raise interest rates again in March, and inflation is coming

　　 Economists say , The Bank of England will speed up the rate hike , To curb soaring inflation , They have significantly raised their forecasts for rising consumer prices .

　　12 Month approach 30 The high inflation rate in forced the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its second consecutive meeting earlier this month , Raise the bank interest rate to 0.50%. But nearly half of the monetary policy committees (MPC) Members voted to raise interest rates to 0.75%, This makes it more likely to tighten further next month .

　　 stay 2 month 7 solstice 11 In the investigation on August , Nearly two thirds of the respondents , namely 40 Human 25 people , Due in 3 month 17 At the end of the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee on the th , Bank interest rates will rise 25 BPS to 0.75%. This will be the first time since 1997 Since then , The bank has raised interest rates for three consecutive meetings .41 Among people 21 People predict by a small majority that it will further increase to 1.00%. This is far behind the financial market , The latter expects the bank to 3 The month and 5 The cumulative increase at the meeting in September 75 BPS .

 

　　 In a poll conducted last month , It is expected that there will only be a further increase in the third quarter of this year , This shows how quickly interest rate expectations change . KPMG senior economist MichalStelmach Express :" Rising inflation 、 The labor market is elastic and Omicron The data is better than expected , These factors together prove that from 12 The interest rate hike cycle that began in May will continue ."

　　" We expect the monetary policy committee to be in 3 The month and 5 Monthly interest rate increase , After that, it may pause , To allow new policy directions to be embedded ". Also facing high inflation , Currently in 7.5% Of 40 The highest level in , The Fed is expected to 3 Tighten policy at the policy meeting in August .　 Persistent global supply chain problems and rising energy prices have pushed up the median inflation forecast for the ninth consecutive time this year .

　　 The average inflation rate in this quarter is 5.7%, It is expected to reach 6.6% Peak value , a 1 The month rises respectively 0.5 and 1.1 percentage , About the Bank of England 2.0% Three times the target . Inflation is expected to slow to... In the third and fourth quarters 5.9% and 4.5%.

　　" Inflation will rise in 4 The month reached slightly lower than 7% Peak value , At that time, the impact of rising energy prices will be fully reflected in the data . Second half of this year , Inflationary pressures on the supply side should ease ," Senior macro strategist of Rabobank StefanKoopman Express .

　　 exceed 80% Of the respondents responded to additional questions (18 Among people 15 people ) Express , The Bank of England is more likely to raise interest rates , Not less . The British economy is 12 Monthly atrophy 0.2%, Less than expected , because Omicron Coronavirus variants swept Europe , And the loss of momentum may continue into this quarter .

　　 The economy is expected to grow in this quarter 0.4%, Next quarter growth 0.9%. And then , The growth rate in the third and fourth quarters slowed to 0.6%.2022 The annual growth rate in is 4.3%,2023 Years for 2.1%, It is lower than what was predicted a month ago 4.5% and 2.2%. In the case of Bank of England officials calling for wage restrictions ,85% Interviewee (20 Among people 17 people ) Think of the future 12 The monthly wage increase will not keep up with inflation .

　　" Real wages in Britain have fallen , Nominal wage growth weakened , The risk of stagnant economic growth is obvious , So any idea that a wage price spiral is coming seems to be overdone ," Kupmann said .