Barbell strategy -- extreme stability and extreme waves

Barbell strategy

The barbell strategy is that Taleb is 《 Anti frailty 》 The one mentioned in , It's a way to fight uncertainty .

The shape of the barbell is big at both ends 、 The middle is small , The weight is concentrated on both sides , But it has strong stability . You can think of both ends as important parts , The middle is the negligible part .

Apply it to the field of investment , It is an asset with low risk and low return at one end , At the other end are high-risk and high-yield assets , In the middle are assets with medium risk and return , The barbell strategy suggests investing in assets at both ends , Instead of participating in the investment of intermediate assets .

If the portfolio is configured according to the barbell strategy , One side is high-risk assets , Such as the stock 、 fund 、 Futures and so on , On the other side are low-risk assets , Like savings 、 national debt 、 Money funds and so on .

On the distribution of funds , High risk assets can be allocated 20% Capital of , Low risk asset allocation 80% Capital of , The advantage of doing this is that extremely safe assets build a safety cushion for you , Make sure you are on a break even basis , There are still opportunities for high returns .

Since the future trend of asset prices is uncertain , The best way is to embrace it , Instead of pursuing uncertain medium income , It's better to pursue uncertain high returns , Barbell strategy helps you find a balance between uncertainty and certainty .

The 28 law tells us a truth ,80% The benefits are always derived from 20% Brought by assets , These assets are often very risky , But we can never give them up , This confidence comes from the construction of extremely safe assets .

When high-risk assets bring more and more benefits , This part of the income can be extracted , Invest in extremely safe assets , So your safety mat gets thicker and thicker , Your ability to resist risks is getting stronger .

Many successful people are masters of barbell strategy , Before successfully building passive revenue , Have a stable job , And purchased assets with high income certainty for themselves .

The advantage of doing so is that you won't be able to live when you encounter a loss . therefore , We can't just pursue stability , You can't put all your eggs in one basket , Use the barbell strategy , Find the balance between uncertainty and certainty , Is the best way to get a return on assets .

Investment advice from ordinary people

For the average person , Buying stocks directly is too risky , A better strategy is to invest in index funds . Mr. Wu Jun is in 《 Google letter 》 In this column, I put forward several investment suggestions for ordinary people , There are mainly the following points ：

One 、 Choose an index fund that has performed well in history . Although all investors will say that past performance does not reflect future earnings , But in the past, the performance was not good for a long time , There is little chance of doing well in the future .

Two 、 Every one of us , It should be based on your income 、 Risk tolerance and time to spend money , Allocate assets proportionally to stocks and bonds . If it's young people , You can put... Of your income 80% All invested in index funds , The rest 20%, Except to set aside 5% In addition to cash , The rest can buy treasury bonds .

If you are going to get married or buy a house in a few years , Or the elderly , You can't do that , Investment needs to be more secure , Reduce the proportion of investment funds as needed , Raise the bond （ And cash ） The proportion of .

3、 ... and 、 If you are lucky enough to invest in the stock market , The stock portion of your portfolio will yield far more than the bond portion （ And cash ） The proportion of , For example, you initially set 7:3 The proportion of , Now it may become 8:2 了 , At this time, you need to get back part of the stock income , Instead of following everyone on the stock market .

I need to remind you , When we have good luck , Be sure to thank God , Don't thank ourselves . contrary , When the stock market plummeted , It's not the time for you to cut meat , Now , Your original bonds or cash will work , You should buy stocks , Maintain the proportion of stocks in the investment portfolio as originally set , Rebalance the funds .

At this time , You actually invest at a cheaper price . Of course , Every transaction has a cost , This fine-tuning of the portfolio is enough once a year . Your fine-tuning approach , In fact, he is practicing what Buffett said “ I fear when others are greedy , I'm greedy when others are afraid ”.

Anyone who can do the simple ones above , Don't worry about getting rich long-term returns .

Here are index funds and bonds （ cash ） It's both ends of the barbell , Index funds correspond to the high-risk side , bond （ cash ） Corresponding to the low-risk end ,7:3 The ratio of is the specific gravity at both ends .

Barbell strategy in work life

If the barbell strategy is applied to life and work , Namely “ Extreme stability and extreme waves do not roll inside ”.

“ Extreme stability and extreme waves do not roll inside ” It's what the classical teacher said , He means to say , We must first have a stable job , This is the end of the barbell , Then we use our spare time to develop our hobbies , Try all kinds of high-risk but high-yield things , For example, we media 、 live broadcast 、 Writing, etc .

No, it means , Let's not waste time doing things that waste our energy but do not return , For example, flattering the leaders 、 Drinking and socializing 、 Intrigue, etc .

The most important thing is to seize the time to improve your ability .

Take two. “ Extreme stability and extreme waves do not roll inside ” Example ：

such as , Kafka, an Austrian Hungarian writer , Work in an insurance agency , Usually I leave work at two o'clock in the afternoon , This is extremely stable , Then he spent his spare time on his literary works which were loyal to his firm stand , This is extreme wave , And writing can bring great rewards , This is not involute .

such as , Liucixin is a computer engineer in a power plant , This is his very stable end , Then he used his spare time to write science fiction , This is the end of the polar wave , Writing science fiction is not a success , There are no worries about being an engineer .

Extremely stable work plus extremely long literary creation , Even the typical barbell strategy , Stable work gives us inner peace , No longer worry about making a living , And then we can devote ourselves to the other end of the barbell , Completely stimulate our creativity .

summary

Barbell strategy is a good way to deal with risks and uncertainties , Configure both ends of the barbell , It allows us to balance safety and benefits , That's what a portfolio is all about .

We use barbell strategy in our work and life , It can prevent us from selling houses and starting businesses 、 Borrow money to invest 、 Resignation, stock speculation and other high-risk things , Life never ALL IN, And learn to play barbells .

For the average of us , The more feasible approach is ： Work hard , Do a good job in asset allocation , Fixed investment index fund , Then use your spare time to develop hobbies and sidelines , Wait for the flowers to bloom .