Who has the vision to cross the cycle?

（1） Time

2008 year , The Americas suffered from the global financial crisis , Europe is facing a national sovereign debt crisis , Orders in Europe and the United States fell seriously .

China's export manufacturing was unprepared , Only dead horses can be used as living horse doctors ：

1、 Export to domestic sales

2、 Wholesale trade to retail

3、 Export manufacturing enterprises have no sales channels in China , make every possible effort , Try online retail , Thus, China's retail will be transformed from offline to online

2018 year , The Sino US trade war started with a head-on conflict .

This year is 2022 year , Four years have passed , Can we discern any changes in the industrial structure ？

（2） China's economy

The troika of Chinese economy ：

1、 Government fixed asset investment ： At present, the government mainly relies on the construction of major infrastructure projects to stimulate related industries . This is the main growth force of China's economy

2、 Export manufacturing - International consumption ： Encounter a Sino US trade war

3、 Domestic manufacturing - Domestic consumption ： Houses and cars are the two biggest consumption items for ordinary people . Housing consumption is decreasing , But the consumption of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly . Other consumption , Subject to the stagflation of the whole industrial chain ： The price of raw materials has risen sharply - Epidemic prevention and control in production clusters - Epidemic prevention and control of warehousing, logistics and distribution - Epidemic prevention and control in offline service industry .

（3） Globalization of Chinese enterprises

One 、 Two extremes

1、 Within the system ： Large and super large state-owned enterprises , Follow China's national the Belt and Road strategy and aiib investment , To do the infrastructure construction of the the Belt and Road countries . From manager to engineer to labor force , All Chinese . In the world, this is essentially a traditional consolidated statement , Not true globalization .

2、 Outside the system ： Medium and large private enterprises , Rely on China's mature industrial chain and industrial agglomeration , Based on China , Global marketing . This is a bit of a middle way , The industrial chain has a long division of labor , Half of the industrial chain is Chinese and half is foreigners

Two 、 potential threat potential menace

2022 year 5 month , The United States and Japan and South Korea 、 Australia 、 Singapore 、 The association of south-east Asian nations (asean) 、 India , Establish the Indo Pacific economic framework . China's low-end export manufacturing （ Such as clothing, shoes and hats ）, Accelerate the transfer to Southeast Asia .

3、 ... and 、 His shan zhishi ： How did Europe and the United States do globalization in the past

1、 Design Center ： In Europe and America

2、 Purchasing Center ： In Singapore or Shanghai, China

3、 Production base ： On Chinese mainland

4、 Marketing center ： In Europe and America

5、 Sales Center ： Branches in various countries

6、 Customer Service Center ： In India,

7、 Financial settlement center ： In Singapore

8、 Tax Center ： In the UK

According to the value chain , A commodity from production to delivery , People from all parts of the world need to integrate and collaborate based on the same online platform , They are in different languages 、 Different time zones 、 Different exchange rates 、 Under different compliance policies .

I expect , As the Indian Pacific Economic Framework matures , China's low-end industrial chain will be transferred to the Indo Pacific framework , Chinese enterprises will upgrade to the middle end , The mode of globalization will be closer and closer to the European and American mode . But this is a smooth and gradual process , It's not an obvious short-term drastic change .

（4） Cross border pattern analysis

One 、 National macro policies

1、 At home ： Domestic big cycle , Foreign double circulation

2、 The international ： Sino-us trade war 、 Industrial transfer within the framework of Indo Pacific economy

Two 、 Value chain

1、 marketing ： Search platform traffic （Google、Bing）、 Social platform traffic （Facebook、Twitter）、 E-commerce platform traffic （Amazon、Ebay）、 Mobile app store traffic （Apple iOS、Google Android）. At present, the flow of China in the open sea Tiktok The rise of

2、 transaction ： platform （Amazon、Ebay）、 Independent station （Shopify、BigCommerce）

3、 clearance / Warehousing logistics ： China is increasing the construction of overseas warehouses , But warehousing, logistics and distribution , At present, it is still dominated by European and American manufacturers

4、 payment ： Financial business , It is still dominated by European and American manufacturers

5、 Customer service ： English customer service ability . India is better

6、 Financial settlement / Reconciliation ： Singapore is the Asia Pacific Financial free port , Foreign exchange processing is extremely convenient

7、 Tax treatment ： Ireland is a global tax depression 、 Britain is a developed global financial market , Mature industrial chain

3、 ... and 、 Party a ： Chinese cross-border e-commerce enterprises

1、 In the amazon 2020-2022, kill 40% Chinese merchants , It's all illegal （ Such as brushing the list 、 Brush comments ）. Four young people in South China city 、 Sakata five tigers have folded their wings

Four 、 Party B ： China's cross-border SaaS Enterprises

1、Shopify Share price loss exceeds 50%. European, American and Chinese venture capital have been looking down on cross-border e-commerce independent stations SaaS Track

Who has the vision to cross the cycle ？