Prospects of world digitalization and machine intelligence in the next decade

1. summary

   1999 year 《 The matrix 》 The release shocked the world , Let people peek into the future of the digital world , Sci-fi brain computer links allow people to swim in the digital world , Can't distinguish fantasy from reality ,20 Years ago, people thought it was unreal and unreachable , Now with the development of science and Technology ,mate The metauniverse is booming , The digitalization and IOT of the real world are widely promoted ,AI Can only help people accomplish a lot of work , Let people escape from the heavy 、 dangerous 、 mechanical 、 Repetitive labor , Liberated people's lives , This is the welfare brought by the fourth and fifth industrial revolutions , The next decade will be the digitization of the real world 、 Internet of things 、 The decade of the outbreak of intelligence .

 

         Technology will change people's lives as never before , Many articles define the future world as an intelligent world , I feel that the future intelligent world I see now is based on Digitalization , It is the digital twin of the real world , therefore , It is more appropriate to define the future world as the world of digital intelligence , That is to say Meta The metauniverse represented in , It is the digital twin world projected by the IOT sensor data that people enjoy , People live in the meta universe, which is the digital twin of the real world . The foresight given in this article is only a reference for practitioners in relevant industries to seize the opportunity to think about the future intelligent world , Encourage innovative thinking , Explore disruptive technologies to meet the challenges of the future society .

1. Privacy security

         Enjoy the future of digital intelligence , People no longer have to wait in line , There is no need to repeat the tedious work , Any goods and services will be delivered immediately when you need them most . In the future, global data will enter YB Time , Intelligence and broadband will be as ubiquitous as air , Almost all families 、 Vehicles and individuals can enjoy the 10 Gigabit network .

         In such a world , green 、 All optical and digital transformation will create a more livable 、 A more humanized and fully connected city . The global 85% Our enterprises will protect personal privacy and security with the help of unbreakable blockchain technology , Privacy enhanced computing will account for more than half of the total computing . With the blessing of Cloud Computing , The future energy will be cleaner 、 More intelligent . In a world of digital credibility , Enterprises will be more resilient , Flexible production will be more popular .

1. Network development

         In today's world , We feel the economic and social development brought about by industrialization , But at the same time, it also faces increasingly severe challenges . And aging 、 Urbanization is accompanied by a surge in medical demand 、 A shortage of labor 、CO2 Emissions increase 、 Urban traffic congestion 、 Environmental pollution is serious , Since last year, the COVID-19 has continued , Abnormal climate leads to frequent disasters , These all highlight the fragility of modern society . The United Nations proposed to 2030 Year should reach 17 Sustainable development goals , To meet these challenges , The realization of these goals depends on scientific and technological innovation and policies and regulations , We need to build an intelligent world through digital and intelligent transformation .

         Network infrastructure is the foundation of informatization , It is the base of the future society . What will the world need for the Internet in the future ？ The global Internet penetration rate has exceeded 52%, The average annual increase is about 3%, The number of Internet users in developing countries will continue to increase in the next decade , expect 2030 In, the global Internet penetration rate can reach 70%, And the number of network connections increases faster , At present, the number of connectors has exceeded the number of connectors , Over the past decade, the compound growth rate of the global Internet of things has reached 10%,2030 In, the number of Internet of things connections will increase by orders of magnitude compared with the number of Internet users .IDC The report 2016~2020 Annual increase in global data volume in 30%, It can be inferred that the global data volume will increase in the next decade 14 times .

         Data driven broadband , Over the past decade, the average access bandwidth of consumer applications has increased more than tenfold , In the next decade, 10 Gigabit access will be widely used . The main body of network applications will shift from consumer applications to industrial applications , Low delay, deterministic communication and accurate positioning are the characteristics of industrial applications , High security, high reliability and data protection are the premise of industrial application .

In order to make the network capability meet the requirements of the future society , With 2030 The future network technology research targeted has been laid out in advance , Achieve preliminary results , be based on IPv6 Address potential can provide application awareness and streaming detection capabilities , On this basis, new routing protocols can be developed to support low latency and high reliability services , Further through flexibility IP The protocol improves the adaptability of the network to the business , Some new network architecture schemes have been proposed , Pertinence provides certainty for different application requirements 、 High security of the combination of endogenous security and border security 、 greening 、 Intelligent 、 Ubiquitous network capabilities .

         In the future, it will be further integrated 5G、 Cloud computing 、 The Internet of things 、 big data 、 Artificial intelligence 、 Blockchain and other new generation information technology , More accurate understanding of business application intention and optimized and efficient utilization of network resources , Realize cloud network collaboration security and credibility .

1. Machine intelligence

         In the future, machine intelligence will be the core of future technological development , It is the heart of every automation system , It will show that the algorithm is the first productivity ; A development stage of machine intelligence is artificial intelligence , That is to develop machine intelligence 、 Automation replaces human's role in generating life , Liberate people from heavy labor , At the same time to provide better services .

 

         Artificial intelligence has made a breakthrough in the past decade , Various applications have gradually penetrated into everyone's clothing 、 food 、 live 、 In line , Especially during the epidemic period , Let the world witness the universal value of artificial intelligence . The application of AI technology in data scale and industry in China 、 There are advantages in youth talent reserve , But in the original algorithm and core components 、 Open source and open platform are still weak . How to make up the weakness as soon as possible , So that the development of artificial intelligence in China can develop healthily 、 For a long time , It is a major event that we need to seriously think and layout .

         The vigorous development of artificial intelligence in this round depends on three factors ： data 、 Algorithm 、 Calculate the force . The so-called computing power is super computing power . The progress of artificial intelligence has brought the need of computing power far beyond Moore's law . Take deep learning as an example , from 2011 From the rise of in to today , The demand for computing power has been growing exponentially , every other 3.4 One month's computing power needs to double .2020 year , Natural language processing model GPT-3 The parameter quantity reaches 1750 Billion , The demand for computing power is 3640PD（PD Represents the amount of floating-point computation used to calculate a day with billions of calculations per second ）;2021 year , Pengcheng . Pangu —— The first all open source in the industry 2000 100 million parameter Chinese pre training language model , Use E level AI Pengcheng yunnao, a mathematician II Forget it 50 God , The demand for computing power has reached 25000PD; To 2023 year , The computing power of this huge model can reach millions PD, This puts forward a severe test to the existing computer and computing processing capacity .

        AI The development of is inseparable from data sharing 、 Computing power sharing 、 The general trend of ecological sharing . How to carry out linkage training between computing centers on the premise of ensuring data security , Explore ways to break the contradiction between privacy protection and data mining , Will be the topic of continuous exploration in the next few years . In response to this question , Federal learning 、AI Shooting range and other technologies have also been introduced , I believe that with the gradual maturity of related technologies , Ensuring data security and promoting data development and utilization will no longer be contradictory , Trusted computing platform will also promote the further development of computing power network .

1. Smart travel Outlook

         The appearance of cars has changed the world , Make people travel more convenient 、 More freedom , But now the car has also brought “ disease ”, Such as air pollution 、 traffic jam 、 Energy unsustainable, etc . therefore , The car must be changed . future 10 To 20 Year , We will usher in a new automobile revolution .

         The automobile industry has a history of more than 100 years , Its body is very strong , But its brain is declining . The information industry has a powerful brain , They enter the new power of making cars , But their bodies are still not strong enough . therefore , To complete this revolution , These two industries should be integrated across borders , Develop a new generation of cars . The core content of this automobile revolution is electrification 、 Autopilot 、 Automobile interconnection and sharing , The aim is to put people first , vehicle 、 road 、 The city is intelligent , To achieve security 、 comfortable 、 Low carbon 、 Environmental protection 、 Energy saving 、 Efficient free travel .

 

         Now? , China's economy has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development , The timeline of China's rise coincides with the fourth industrial revolution of human society . We need subversive strategic thinking to deal with this industrial revolution , Break through the traditional linear thinking .“ Five nets and five streams ” Fusion is to replace linear thinking with breakthrough circular thinking .“ Five nets ” It refers to the energy network 、 Information network 、 Traffic network 、 Humanities network 、 Ecological network ;“ Fifth rate ” Energy flow 、 information flow 、 Material flow 、 Value stream 、 Environmental flow . adopt “ Five nets and five streams ” The fusion , It can integrate people's subjective initiative with the energy revolution 、 The information revolution 、 traffic （ Travel ） Revolution is linked . The central idea is this , In people's advanced thoughts （ Superstructure ） Under the guidance of , Advanced information can be used （ economic base ） technology , About information and cloud 、5G、 Combination of artificial intelligence technology , From data to information , Then change knowledge through digitalization 、 intelligence . Then put this intelligence and energy （ economic base ） The fusion , Generate smart energy , Turn waste energy into useful energy , At the same time, promote carbon neutralization , Improve economic and ecological benefits , Let the ecosystem gradually return to balance , Reduce traces of human activities in the environment , Remove the impact of industrial development on the environment , Build a livable and sustainable earth .

         This is also human — Information — The integration and innovation of the trinity of physical systems . By building people — machine （ Information ）— New production relations formed by physical systems , Explore the huge productivity that the data dividend of the fourth industrial revolution can bring , And on the basis of the sum of the productive forces of the previous three industrial revolutions, an exponential growth broke out . From electric cars to smart cars , From intelligent car to intelligent transportation , From intelligent transportation to intelligent city , Enter the era of intelligence , We can generate a lot of added value and value opportunities . New era, new journey , We have now entered the era of energy revolution . China is facing great environmental pressure , The demand for new energy vehicles is more urgent than that of any country , Therefore, China must take the road of developing new energy vehicles . Do a good job in the integrated development of energy and the Internet , Now is the best opportunity .

         Because the new energy smart car is a mobile distributed energy 、 Energy storage and information carrier , Through the linkage automobile revolution 、 Energy revolution and information revolution , as well as ‘ Five nets and five streams ’ The fusion , Especially turning energy into material flow , It can reduce energy intensity and carbon emission intensity , boost “ Carbon neutralization ”.“ Five nets and five streams ” Integration through the developed smart energy operating system , Combine energy technology with information technology , Combine energy technology with cloud technology 、 Edge of computing 、 Artificial intelligence and big data technology are combined , Achieve value-added effect . This will promote the transition of the energy sector from the fourth industrial revolution to the Fifth Industrial Revolution .

         Smart energy , Except for safety 、 Beyond intelligence , The most important thing is whether we can turn the unused energy into useful , In terms of thermodynamics, it is to change the original entropy increase into entropy decrease , Or entropy becomes 㶲, Its essence is to turn the original disordered system into an orderly system . While the automobile industry continues to develop , in consideration of “ Carbon neutralization ”, Only in this way can we make steady progress .

         The world is about to enter the era of intelligent vehicles , In the future, the consensus on the scientific and technological development direction of the world automobile industry is green 、 interconnection 、 intelligence , Its development and change need to be driven by innovation , It will eventually extend from electric vehicles to the transformation of the whole travel mode of human beings . It is far from enough to change the way people travel in the future only by R & D and manufacturing , We should also devote ourselves to realizing intelligent transportation through intelligent networking technology , And then build a smart city in the future , Only in the end can we truly realize the goal of intelligent travel mode reform in the future .

         Cars are the Internet 、 big data 、 Typical applications of deep integration of machine intelligence and real economy , Information technology redefines the automobile , Networking 、 Intelligence is the development direction of automobile , Intelligent connected vehicle is an important pillar of intelligent transportation . Intelligent connected vehicles bring technology 、 policy 、 Regulations and other challenges , The standardization of smart cars is still in progress , The innovation of intelligent connected vehicles is always on the road . I hope our future transportation system will be comfortable 、 Ecological 、 Convenient and safe . Let's work together ！