2 Ice cream or snow “ high ”？

source ： Mowgli of finance and economics （ID:caijwj） author ： Ning Wen

Summer is coming , When you pay for ice cream , Many young people feel that they have lost their ice cream freedom . 

In the near future ,“ Why do ice cream sell more and more expensive ” It was once a hot topic on Weibo , Just two days , Just harvest 3.4 Read one hundred million . On the introduction page of the topic , The host Sina Finance and economics expressed the wishes of many netizens ：“10 The annual price rises 3 times ,66 Yuan was robbed , Why is ice cream rising in price to become a net success ？” 

in fact , The feelings of netizens are not illusions .《 Beijing youth daily 》 Visit Beijing 7-11、 rosen 、 The whole family waited for several convenience stores , Find out “ It's hard to see 1 Yuan ice cream ”, The price of most ice cream is often more than ten yuan , Even tens of yuan . 

Although the trend of consumption upgrading in the past two years is sweeping across all walks of life , But a healthy market ultimately needs to have high, medium and low-grade product distribution . In the past two years, the price of ice cream has soared , It doesn't seem to be a good market trend . 

New and old brands collectively soar

When the market has incremental dividends , To bring imagination to the enterprise . Unlike most industries, which have already entered the stage of stock growth , Ice cream market in recent two years , Still maintain rapid growth . 

Prospective industry research institute data shows ,2018 year , The scale of China's ice cream market is only 1241 One hundred million yuan , expect 2021 year , This number will reach 1600 One hundred million yuan , growth 28.92%, Number one in the world .

With the expansion of market scale , There are more and more ice cream related enterprises in China . Sky eye data display , end 2022 year 6 month , China has nearly 6.5 Ten thousand ice cream related enterprises . Nearly five years , On average, China sets up more than... Every year 5000 Ice cream related enterprises , The growth rate is 10% about . 

Regarding this ,2022 year Q1 At the performance meeting , Unilever management frankly said ：“ We continue to see strong performance of Chinese ice cream .” 

According to general industry experience , At the beginning of the establishment of the new brand , Most of them will go deep into the middle and low-end price segment , After the industry has stabilized , Seeking high-end breakthrough again . But the ice cream industry is not so . 

Take Zhong Xuegao as an example , It was founded in 2018 year 3 month , Most of its products focus on 10-20 Yuan price range . When many people think that Zhong Xuegao is just a clown , This start-up brand has created a sales myth . 

Official information shows , Only established 16 After a month , Zhong Xuegao's Omni channel sales amount is more than 100 million .2020 year , Zhong Xuegao's sales volume has broken 4800 Wan branch .2021 year , Zhong Xuegao's revenue doubled again .

Similarly, , Even cross-border brands have begun to launch high-end ice cream products .2022 year 5 end of the month , Maotai and Mengniu jointly launched three types of Maotai ice cream . Among them, the price of green plum boiled wine 59 element / box , Price of classic original flavor and vanilla flavor 66 element / box . 

Picture source ： maotai  

Official information shows , The offline flagship store of Maotai ice cream is on sale 7 Hours , Sales volume 20 ten thousand ;“i maotai ”App sale 51 minute , Co sold 4 m , Sales volume about 250 Ten thousand yuan . 

in fact , Not just new brands , Ice cream “ Traditional forces ” Also started the road of product upgrading .  Take Yili for example ,2015 year , It has launched a high-end product line of milk ice products “ Zhen Xian ”. That year “ Zhen Xian ” Of its five products , The most expensive product , The price of vanilla ice cream has reached 7 element . 

Picture source ： Erie  

From the financial report ,2015 year -2018 year , The average ex factory price of Yili cold drink products has risen 29%. From this view , High end products can indeed bring brilliant performance . 

Through other high-end ice cream brands , We can also see this trend .2015 year ,BCG Published data display , Haagen Dazs has taken away the industry 70% The profits of the , among 50% The sales volume of is contributed by the Chinese market . 

This data not only shows that high-end ice cream can bring higher profits , It also implies that the Chinese market has a strong demand for high-end ice cream . 

Ice cream has to “ high ”

But it's worth thinking about , What the market economy stresses is efficiency , Not high-end . High end products can certainly bring higher profits , But through large-scale means , Meager profit but high turnover , In fact, it can also maintain good cash flow . 

Well known in the smart phone industry “ High cost performance ” Take Xiaomi as an example , Results show that ,2021 year , The gross margin of its smartphone business is only 11.9%, The per customer price of smart phone is only 1097.5 element , However, due to the fact that the annual shipments of smart phones reached 1.9 One hundred million units , therefore , The total revenue of Xiaomi's smartphone business has also reached 2088.7 One hundred million yuan . 

Considering that the ice cream market is still growing , Each price segment has certain development opportunities , The ice cream manufacturers make every effort to “all in” High-end , It may be attributed to the production of ice cream and traditional standard products 、 There are differences in transportation and even sales . 

First , From the point of view of production , Because the product needs to refine milk 、 Raw materials such as fresh cream , And involves the cold chain , The material of ice cream 、 Logistics and other cost pressures are even greater .

The data released by the food commerce website shows that ,2008 year -2020 year , Milk for ice cream production in China 、 Raw materials such as light cream rose 80% about . Besides , Because it takes the whole journey “ Keep fresh ”, The cost of cold chain transportation of ice cream is about higher than that of traditional freight transportation 40% To 60%. 

It also means that , Even if it is not intended to impact the high-end , As time goes by , Ice cream makers also need to raise their prices accordingly , To cope with high costs . 

2021 year , In an interview , For prices up to 66 yuan “ Ecuador pink diamond ” Ice cream , Lin Sheng, founder of Zhong Xuegao, explained that ：“ The most expensive ice cream has been sold 66 element , The product cost is about the same 40 Yuan , It's at that price ”. 

If ice cream is a product that is shipped evenly every quarter , Then through large-scale shipment , It may also take the route of small profits but quick turnover , The high cost of hedging . But the problem is , The summer attribute of ice cream , It determines that the shipment has peaks and troughs . 

GlobalDate Published data display ,2021 year , Although the annual per capita ice cream consumption in China is higher than that in Asia and the Pacific , But only for 2.1kg. As a contrast , According to the National Bureau of statistics , at present , China's annual per capita egg consumption is about 21kg, Rice is about 110kg. 

I can only do business for half a year , It means that the manufacturer needs to consider the costs and benefits of the other half year , Naturally, they tend to choose higher customer unit price 、 Ice cream that can drive more profits . 

In addition to the increasing cost , Synchronized with the birth of Zhong Xue's advanced products , With economic development 、Z Generations have become the main force of consumption , China is also blowing a whirlwind of consumption upgrading . TalkingDate The published data show that ,2021 year ,Z The consumption scale of the generation group reached 4.94 Trillion yuan , As of 2035 year , This number will reach 16 Trillion yuan . This market base , It is also a major incentive to push up the price of ice cream . 

A survey data released by China Youth Daily shows that ,83.02% Of the college students interviewed will pay for their interests because of their joy and inner satisfaction . 

in the light of Z Generational preferences , Many brands have been created “ Wenchuang ice cream ”.  such as ,2020 year , Yili launched “NOC Be happy ” The high-end ice cream brand focuses on the round fan shape ; Zhong Xuegao is based on “ New Chinese style ” Cultural ideas , Created an ice cream based on Chinese tile design . Prospective industry research institute data shows , By 2021 end of the year , Scenic spots that launch cultural and creative ice cream include 16 Many families , The price of these ice cream is mostly in 10 element -30 Yuan between . 

Picture source ： Zhong Xuegao  

in fact , It's not just ice cream , In the beverage market , We can see a similar trend .2022 year 4 month , Shanghai Consumer Protection Commission issued 《Z A survey report on beverage consumption for generations 》 Show , When shopping for drinks ,41% Shanghai Z Generations will choose “0 sugar ” drinks , More than half Z First choice domestic brands for generations . 

This also directly gave birth to a new consumption power brand represented by Yuanqi forest . according to the understanding of , Yuanqi forest was founded in 2016 year , The main product is soda bubble water . Official information shows ,2021 year , The revenue of Yuanqi forest is about 70.2 One hundred million yuan , Year on year 2.6 times . 

And new tea “ All roads lead to Rome ”？

Although from the perspective of market trends and supply chain , A few ice cream brands have good reasons to impact the high-end market , However, this does not mean that the ice cream market, where prices are rising, is absolutely reasonable . 

In the past two years , Due to the repeated turbulence of the epidemic 、 Geopolitical conflicts continue , The world's economic situation is facing a severe test . A big impact of this , That is, consumers become more rational when they consume .

Issued by Fidelity International 《 China's pension prospects survey report 》 Show ,18-34 China's younger generation, aged 20, is paying more attention to pension reserves ,2021 The annual savings ratio is 25%, gen 2018 Annual high . 

Consumers hold their wallets tightly , It has poured a basin of cold water on the new tea drinking track which was once in full swing . 

Take Naixue's tea as an example , Before the outbreak , It was once ranked among the top ten tea brands in China , And completed hundreds of millions of yuan A+ Round of funding , Valuation of 60 One hundred million yuan . although 2021 Mid year , Naixue's tea has been successfully marketed , But no matter from the financial report or the performance of the capital market , The situation of Naixue's tea is not optimistic . 

Results show that ,2021 year , Naixue's tea lost money 1.45 One hundred million yuan . When the stock price is listed 17.12 The Hong Kong dollar / Stocks have fallen to today's 6 The Hong Kong dollar / About the thigh , Decline is 65% about . That's why , Intentional impact IPO My favorite tea is 2022 At the beginning of the year, they not only took the initiative to reduce prices , a farewell “30 element ” Price segment , Even introduced drinks with a single digit per customer price . 

Picture source ： Baidu

In the face of the prevailing ice cream market trend of rising prices , Many netizens not only roast on the Internet , And they vote with their feet . Two years ago. , Northeast Daban, which is good in quality and low in price, goes all the way south , Sweeping Hangzhou 、 Jinan and other cities . Regarding this , Zhai Weier, manager of ice cream business and brand development in Nestle Greater China, once said ：“ People who have no money will still choose cheap things ”. 

Similarly, , Intelligence research consulting data shows ,2021 Chinese ice cream offline market in , The market share of Tianbing, a local medium and low-end ice enterprise, is 3%, In the top ten . As a contrast ,2018 year , Tianbing also ranks TOP 10 Away . 

in the final analysis , A healthy market really needs high-end products , But not all brands need to be high-end , So that there are almost no low-end products to choose from in the industry .

At present, the problem faced by the ice cream industry is , Players in the industry see the limitations of the supply chain and the trend of the market , They all hope to take a share in the high-end ice cream market , The demand of consumers for low-end products is relatively neglected . 

But the problem is , Even if the market size of the ice cream industry grows again , Chinese people can hardly eat ice cream like rice . therefore , Players in the ice cream industry , Or should we see the gap in the middle and low-end market , Try to meet the needs of most consumers . 

If not , The new tea industry today , Maybe the future of the ice cream industry .