"Demons dance", is the bull market over? 2021-05-13

 

lately “ Animal coin ” People flying around , All kinds of imitation plates are in chaos , Many investors are worried ： Is the bull market coming to an end ？ Because according to past historical experience , Bull markets often end up dancing with all kinds of junk money .

Just recently, Jiang Zhuoer expressed his views on this , He believes that the bull market is not over yet , Several reasons are given , Among them, I think there are two more valuable ：

First, he mentioned that a classmate who had not contacted him for many years recently began to contact him about how to buy money . Newcomers enter the field , Often small capital investment first , Earn money will be complacent big capital investment , Finally, I can't wait to borrow money to invest , And to the last step , The market peaked .

In the current situation , It is estimated that many newcomers are in the stage of small capital testing , So there is still a long way to go before the climax .

Second, he mentioned that the second half of the bull market was the climax . And the rise of the market in the climax of the second half will be much higher than that in the first half . If we say that the increase in the first half accounted for half of the increase in the bull market 30% To 40%, Then the increase in the second half may account for half of the increase in the bull market 60% To 70%.

For these two views , I agree .

Besides , I think there are two characteristics of bull market ： That is, almost all the benefits will be exhausted 、 All the value coins will rise to the sky .

We see first “ All the good things will come out ”.

At present, in my opinion , The big advantages are Uniswap The second level of expansion is online and Ethereum 1559 On line .

among Uniswap The launch of the second tier expansion of the will benefit the whole DeFi, It will accelerate the maturity of the whole second tier expansion ecosystem , And push up, including DeFi And the second layer expands the ecological heat . At present, some leading projects of the second tier expansion, such as Polygon Although it has shown a strong momentum , But I feel that this momentum seems to be limited to the circle , It's not out of the circle yet . So I expect Uniswap The second expansion of can completely stimulate this heat .

And about Ethereum 1559 The launch of is even more noteworthy . Some time ago, the market was right for the major projects and miners in the circle 1559 The attitude of a survey statistics . The results show that attitudes are split . How will this split affect 1559, So how to affect the next development of Ethereum , It will be revealed soon .

But I feel 1559 It can't be stopped , Eventually, it will go online .

At present, the second layer is extended and BSC、HECO Under the situation of vigorous development of similar ecosystems in Ethereum , once 1559 go online , The price ceiling of Ethereum will be opened , I'm afraid the second half will be the highlight moment of Ethereum .

About “ All value currencies will rise ”, I think it is a more noteworthy indicator . In many of the fixed investments I have listed DeFi In the head token , Many of them have at least risen from the fixed investment price I set 10 times , At present, there is only CRV Still lingering 3 About $ , It's higher than the fixed price I listed last year 2 The dollar is only higher 50%. therefore , Compared with other tokens , In my submission CRV It underestimates . I don't think so. CRV At the current price , Bull market is climax or close to climax .

So based on the above reasons , I think although there has been some chaos in the circle at present , But these chaos are still just small bubbles , It is far from enough to explain that the foam is big enough to collapse .

But although the second half will be the climax , But orgasm is not so easy for everyone to enjoy excitement and joy , It will be mixed with pain and even tragedy ---- The specific performance is that it is likely to fall again . The magnitude of this slump may even be as large as 30% even to the extent that 40%, It should be big enough to completely defeat the newcomers who are now entering the field 、 Clean thoroughly , And then light up , Have a magnificent climax .