Online education fades

The picture comes from Canva Paintable

The biggest air outlet in the past year , There is nothing better than online education . Under the catalysis of the epidemic , Online education began to break out across the board , The industry, surrounded by capital, has ushered in a comprehensive “ prosperity ”. In order to seize the market , There is a fierce marketing war between online education companies , The disorderly expansion faster than the scale spread rapidly throughout the industry .

With the recent intensive state regulatory measures , It all came to an abrupt end , The industry that continues to be hot is also rapidly falling into the ice . Relevant listed education companies have opened “ tumbling ” Pattern , A wave of layoffs swept across the industry , Before that, the online education with infinite scenery stood on the cusp of the storm .

A sudden industrial storm

4 Since the month , Leading enterprises in the field of online education , Such as tal 、 The share prices of New Oriental and other well-known enterprises fell one after another , Other listed companies that carry out business around education and training, such as China public education, are also affected by this , There has been a sustained decline in the share price . In the online education industry “ The big earthquake ”, And 4 Since January, the strengthening of educational supervision by the regulators has something to do with .

First of all 4 Mid month , Including gaotu 、 Learning and thinking 、 Several well-known education and training institutions including New Oriental online , Informed by Beijing Municipal Education Commission , Then he was punished by the Beijing market supervision bureau 50 Ten thousand top grid fine . Soon after , The penalty agency has been expanded to 15 home , The amount of the fine has also been extended to 3650 Ten thousand yuan , The implementing agencies have also been upgraded to the national level .

The fine is just the beginning , Bigger storms followed .5 month 21 Japan , Relevant national ministries and commissions have made 《 Decision on further reducing the burden of homework and after-school training for students at the stage of compulsory education 》（ abbreviation ： Double minus opinion ） The way to implement it ; To further promote the implementation of relevant measures , The Ministry of education has set up an after-school training department to take charge of the management of after-school training affairs , It further demonstrates the determination of the state to govern after-school training . Under a set of combined fists , Online education “ Enthusiasm ” cold .

First , It's an online education advertisement “ Stalling ”. Advertisements for online education before the Spring Festival , It was all over the subway 、 Bus stop 、 Large elevator screen , And short video 、 social contact APP And various variety channels . With the regulation of online education false advertising 、 Efforts to investigate and deal with excessive marketing have been intensified , Nowadays, almost all low-cost promotions 、 Information flow promotion and outdoor advertising are almost suspended , Many downstream advertisers who live on online education advertising have also been affected .

secondly , It's capital “ Face changing ”. A storm of supervision , Let online education be especially capital intensive K12 The circuit is under great pressure , The attitude of capital towards the industry has also been changed 180 The big turnaround . On the one hand, the capital betting on online education earlier began to flee , For example, Hillhouse capital has been in 5 month , I cleared the stock of tal ; On the other hand , Is an investor preparing to enter online education , They have suspended or suspended the investment in relevant online education projects .

As capital exits, the industry cools down , There has been a wave of intensive layoffs in some organizations . After gaotu fired the first shot at layoffs in May , After that, ape tutoring 、 Homework help and other well-known online education institutions , The news of layoffs broke out one after another . It's not hard to see. , A storm sweeping across the industry has come .

Different choices 、 The impact varies

At present, supervision has a great impact on the whole industry , However, for different institutions, the effect of their impact is different .

Judging from the current regulatory policies of the education authorities , It is mainly aimed at preschool education 、 After school training at the stage of compulsory education , Its main attack is false advertising 、 Industrial chaos such as association between institutions and schools for profit , The main restriction is the after-school training institutions at the stage of compulsory education “ Super outline training ” And other illegal operations . It is not difficult to see from these contents , The core of this regulation still points to K12 field , With this as the main business K12 The impact on the mechanism is also the greatest .

Take Gao Tu, a US listed company , After the first quarter financial report was issued , They began to abolish the preschool education projects that had been approved for less than half a year , The overstaffed personnel of relevant departments “ Optimize ”, Gaotu made this decision in addition to its immature business , In addition, due to the national policy of strictly restricting preschool education . For all that , In the face of high regulation, the share price has fallen by half , Also falling are tal and New Oriental , Both share prices have fallen from previous months 60% above .

Affected by this, a number of non main businesses such as China public education K12 Educational institutions of , The share price has also fallen continuously . In the eyes of insiders ,“ The share prices of many public examination institutions fell , In fact, he was killed by mistake , Because the education and training supervision mainly aims at K12 field , The impact on them is quite limited .”

In addition to the different impacts on educational institutions of different businesses , The impact of regulation on different online and offline institutions is also different . At present, whether it is to stop all kinds of online advertising marketing bombing , Or crack down on unlicensed operation , Regulators are targeting more expanding online education institutions , For those large institutions that have been offline for many years, the impact is relatively small , Such as focusing on offline New Oriental .

In the eyes of insiders ,“ New Oriental has the most offline institutions , And the business license is complete 、 Compliance in all respects , It has many years of industry reputation . Offline mechanism is very simple , You will not be allowed to do business without a certificate .” This may also be the reason why Hillhouse bought new Oriental after clearing the warehouse of tal .

Post online education era , Where is the way of online education

From the perspective of industry , This round of supervision will bring a complete reshuffle to the education and training industry .

First , Supervision is conducive to accelerating the withdrawal of non-performing institutions , Promote industry reshuffle . Since last year, under the upsurge of online education , Many primary and secondary education institutions have begun to run horses and enclosure 、 Financing expansion , The rapid development of eager for quick success and instant benefit has brought many unsafe hidden dangers to the industry （ Such as the risk of running away caused by capital precipitation 、 Unlicensed operation risk, etc ）. Through regulation , Some risks can be released in advance , It is conducive to promoting the compliance operation of the industry , Make the industry truly return to rationality .

For those who are expanding , As well as online education enterprises preparing to go public, it is also a blow in the head . Quote relevant media sources , For regulatory reasons , Many well-known organizations, such as homework help 、 Ape tutoring, etc. have delayed or suspended the listing plan , The listed headmaster education is in 6 The month of listing , Still get a ticket from the supervisor . in addition , Some discipline training companies have been suspended from approval , Many expanding institutions are blocked from financing . It is not difficult to foresee that under strong supervision , The industrial reshuffle of online education is accelerating .

secondly , Is to squeeze out the capital foam . In the past year, education, especially online education enterprises , Wanton expansion under the catalysis of capital , A serious foam has formed ; And persistent vicious industry competition , It has also caused great interference to the healthy development of the industry .

Under strong supervision, it used to sell at a low price 、 The brutal growth characterized by price war is no longer sustainable , It is inevitable for enterprises to return to the endogenous growth of products and services .

In the short term , Only with high marketing efficiency 、 High renewal rate 、 Companies with high retention conversion rates , It is expected to achieve a lower customer acquisition cost , It is more likely to tide over the difficulties . Considering the uneven distribution of educational resources , And the reality that domestic selective education is difficult to change in the short term , The market still has a significant demand for online education for a long time .

In the future, online education can only be carried out under the condition of compliance , Through refined operation , Establish a suitable mixed system of large and small shifts , Create high-quality course services , Return to the original intention of objectively promoting the brand , It is expected to develop in the post online education era with normalized supervision .

Liu Kuang's official account ,ID：liukuang110