Real estate market trend outlook in 2022

2021, China's real estate market is treacherous , After experiencing the high fever in the first half of the year and the in-depth adjustment in the second half of the year , The scale of the whole year remained at a high level . Since last year 9 Since the end of the month , The central government and various ministries and commissions continue to send signals of stability . The marginal improvement of the credit environment and the gradual improvement of the financing environment of real estate enterprises . However , The marginal improvement in the credit environment still takes time to be transmitted to the market , Mortgage loans and development loans and other funds still need time to be in place .

Whether it's the new housing market 、 Second hand housing market or land supply and demand market , In this year's deep adjustment of real estate, we have experienced shocks to varying degrees . Under this impact , Real estate companies “ Big but not down ” My faith is shattered . After all , Some real estate enterprises have not won time , Some real estate developers have to leave in gloom .

2022 year , China and even the global economy are facing new downward pressure . How will the real estate market change , Can the mood of home buyers recover ？

2021 Review of the real estate market in

2021 In the first half of the year , New and second-hand housing prices are still high . Since the second half of the year , Affected by the tightening of regulatory policies and the credit environment , The new and second-hand housing market has cooled rapidly .

According to the National Bureau of Statistics ：1-11 month , Sales area of commercial housing 158131 Thousands of square meters , Year-on-year growth 4.8%; Sales of commercial housing 161667 One hundred million yuan , growth 8.5%. It is expected that the sales scale of commercial housing in the whole year will reach a new high , The sales area and sales amount will increase respectively 2.1% and 5%.

The main reason for the rapid decline of sales scale in half a year is the overdraft of residents' purchasing power after the tightening of housing credit , The general mood of house purchasing turned cold “ The stampede effect ”. Some home buyers exposed the hidden danger of purchasing power overdraft after the resident credit crunch . In other third and fourth tier cities , Due to the expected changes after the market downturn , Buyers began to wait and see .

meanwhile , Regions 、 Market sales at all levels present “ The East is stronger than the West ” The situation of , The market continues to differentiate .

2021, Bank “ Two red lines ” And real estate enterprises “ Three red lines ”, So that the funds of real estate enterprises are rapidly tightened . Under the pressure of financing , The new construction area of real estate enterprises increased negatively ; In the year of delivery , The completed area has maintained a high growth . The growth rate of building area is shrinking month by month .2021, The growth rate of new construction area of real estate enterprises fell rapidly from the second quarter .

In policy , The central government reiterated the importance of the real estate industry “ Pillar industries ” status , In terms of financing , The central bank proposed to increase bond financing support , Unfreeze large central enterprises 、 Domestic financing of state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises . In terms of credit , The central bank clearly “ Safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of property buyers ”, Many cities' housing loan interest rates have been cut , Credit approval was accelerated .

Although the overall sales performance of commercial housing is 2021 There was a serious decline in the middle of the year , But the scale of the whole year still shows a positive growth trend . However , The impact of residents' purchasing power overdraft effect has emerged .

One side , Although expected 2022 Residents' credit and urban regulation will be slightly relaxed in , But two 、 Commercial housing in third tier cities is still unsold , In the strong first and second tier cities , There is a certain time lag in the change of house purchasing sentiment . On the other hand , The area of land purchased by real estate enterprises and the area of new housing construction began to show negative growth .

Investment in land expansion , Based on the tight overall financial environment , But the judgment that the financing space of high-quality real estate enterprises has improved , In the past few years, the era of large-scale expansion and reserve of real estate enterprises in the land market has passed , stay “ leverage ” In the background , Land acquisition by real estate enterprises is still dominated by base price and low land price , The overall scale will show negative growth ; On the other hand , Similar to Hangzhou reducing land prices 、 Loose land auction rules to raise house prices , It will appear in more cities . In the expectation of open profit space , Real estate enterprises with idle resources are still willing to compete for high-quality land in core cities . therefore , The decline is expected to narrow .

2021 After the new year , The completed area is also expected to fall back from the high level , Superimposed with the expected decline in new construction area . Besides , Affordable housing will be in 2022 Gradually enter the market in , This will support the housing construction area to a certain extent , But it is difficult to change the current situation of low investment in construction and installation .

from 2021 According to the changes of annual real estate development scale and growth rate , At present, the construction and land requisition during the industrial downturn have lost support for development investment , The completion volume within the delivery year was the only highlight of last year .

2022 Outlook of real estate market trend in

With the improvement of industry supervision and the accelerated development of metropolitan areas ,“ Three red lines ” The policy will open the era of penetrating supervision in the real estate industry , influence 2022 The core variable of the real estate market trend in is the policy environment .

2021, The regulation of the real estate market has reached 651 times , Record high , Year-on-year growth 33%. With the continuous improvement and upgrading of the real estate market regulation policies , The effect of the policy will be more obvious .

expectation 2022 year , The central government will still adhere to “ Room for not stir ” The total tone , Realization “ Three stability ” The goal is . With the continuous deepening of the adjustment trend of the real estate market , The credit environment is expected to improve significantly , The overall trend may continue until 2022 First quarter of 2009 .

It is worth noting that , Real estate tax pilot may be implemented in the future , The list of pilot cities and collection rules are expected to be introduced , This may further affect the short-term expectations of home buyers .

This year “ Maintain the healthy development of the real estate market , Safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers ” Will be better implemented , Local insurance policies may be further improved , The possibility of regulatory fine-tuning of pre-sale funds is greater , Seek a new balance between ensuring construction delivery and improving the efficiency of enterprise capital use .

therefore , With the continuous upgrading and improvement of the policy environment , The development momentum of the real estate market has been supported , The fundamentals of the industry have not collapsed .

If the policy can effectively promote the recovery of the confidence of real estate enterprises , Speed up land supply again , The growth rate of real estate investment may stabilize and recover , This will promote the development of the real estate industry to be more integrated into the process of high-quality development of the national economy .

Besides , The real estate market is a typical cyclical market , It will show the characteristics of average return . According to many industry experts , It is certain that the market will return to the mean . As long as we actively treat it , We will eventually end the dangerous cycle .

therefore ,2022 The confidence of real estate enterprises may continue to be low in the first half of the year , As a result, real estate investment fell to a deep adjustment , The depth adjustment of real estate investment may be right 2022 In the first half of the year, China's economy was a major drag . It cannot be ruled out that there has never been negative growth in real estate investment in the past .

2022 In, real estate enterprises need to cooperate with the national development strategy , Control the scale 、 Adjust the tune 2022 year , China's real estate market emphasizes that meeting reasonable housing demand is based on the demand side , Guide the marketing to return to the normal rhythm , Avoid accidental injury to the first set of buyers who just need and improve their needs . The development of the real estate market should meet the reasonable needs of property buyers , This is also conducive to maintaining the sustainability of the real estate market 、 health 、 Steady development .

As a means and tool of short-term economic growth , Real estate has come to an end , No longer suitable for the new era .2022 The main tone of real estate in has been established in the general direction . But at the same time , Due to the implementation of urban policies , It also leaves a living space for the stable and healthy development of real estate enterprises . All localities will analyze specific problems according to the actual situation , The ultimate goal is to ensure stability .

In recent months , Hohhot, 、 city in Hunan 、 kaifeng 、 Baoding, etc 20 Multiple cities , In order to boost the real estate market , All took out real gold and silver .

20 Many cities have introduced different subsidy purchase policies , Mainly focused on talent subsidies and housing subsidies for new urban residents .

The centralized subsidy policy of third and fourth tier cities is the largest policy that local governments can use , It is expected that the real estate market will gradually stabilize and bottom out . In recent years , Talents from all over the country have become the window of real estate policy regulation , The resettlement and purchase of new citizens have also become the direction of encouragement . The household registration 、 Education and three children have become the main direction of relaxation , It meets the requirements of housing without speculation and talent attraction .

Many places are likely to immediately set off a wave of new deal , The goal is “ Promote the virtuous circle of the real estate industry ” and “ Meet reasonable housing needs ”.

In the absence of major policy adjustments and the impact of emergencies , The overall performance of China's housing market will be 2022 Years tend to be stable . Medium and long term , There is great potential for structural optimization and quality improvement of housing development in China .

Forecast from monthly data ,2022 The first of the year 、 The recovery will gradually accelerate in the second and third quarters , There will be new changes in the fourth quarter . It is predicted that , After going through 2022 After the largest decline in the first quarter of , expect 2022 The decline in the second and third quarters of the year will gradually decrease , The main indicators will be 2022 The fourth quarter of the year became positive .

From a spatial perspective , There will be more cooling and local heating . Estimated from 2021 From the fourth quarter of the quarter to 2022 Throughout the year , The real estate market will further aggravate the spatial differentiation , Show complexity and diversity . First tier and second tier cities with continuous population inflow and income growth , And cities in metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations , Is expected to be in 2022 In the second and third quarters of, it rebounded significantly ; The population continues to flow out 、 Three reasons for the slowdown in income growth 、 Fourth tier cities and below , And cities in non metropolitan areas and non urban agglomerations may face continued decline .

In terms of risk ,2022 The overall risk of the real estate market will continue to decline in , From the external basic environment 、 Housing demand potential and mode change are determined by the housing market , It is expected to be from medium and long term to 2035 year , China's housing development has great potential for structural optimization and quality improvement .

The market shows that , After the inflection point of growth , The structure tends to be optimized , Quality continues to improve , It leads to a high-level equilibrium of the total amount and a high-level optimization of the structure . among , Housing spatial structure （ Including interregional 、 Between urban and rural areas ） The mismatch problem will be basically solved ; In terms of hierarchy , The proportion of housing market and housing security is basically reasonable , A multi-level housing security system has basically taken shape ; In the old and new structure , Stock housing transactions 、 Transformation and maintenance will become the main body , Non development housing services will become the main body ; The structure of rental housing will also tend to be reasonable , The proportion of rental housing will increase significantly , Especially in big cities .

Real estate enterprises need to cooperate with the national development strategy , Control the scale 、 Adjust the tune

At the national level , Real estate is still one of the important measurement and evaluation bases of Chinese people's wealth in China's economic structure . Ensure the stability of the core assets of the domestic economic environment , It is the primary task of national economic management .

From this point of view , On the whole , China's housing prices are bound to be fully maintained and guaranteed by the state .

The downward pressure of China's current economic environment has led to many middle-class groups with real rigid demand and limited income . They have practical difficulties and uncertain concerns in maintaining housing loans , Not to mention those without houses 、 People who are still trying to accumulate the down payment .

If the real rigid demand group cannot guarantee to obtain enough income to pay the cost of debt and ensure their own lives , That will create key risks .

If house prices are stable , There must be a driving force to maintain their own wealth holdings . However , If house prices are unstable and continue to fall , For China's economic environment , This will pull the social and economic cycle into the abyss of a vicious circle .

The stability of house prices is the final result that the country wants , It is also the inevitable trend and direction of the times .