It is said that Huawei will cut the order again! Supply chain manufacturers are more difficult

Due to the impact of the covid-19 epidemic on supply chain production and terminal buying , Recently, it is reported in the industry that Huawei has launched the second wave of smart phone order cutting , And from the beginning of 4G Models extended to 5G mobile phone , To eliminate up to four 、 An inventory of 50 million pieces , TSMC 、 Daliguang 、 Supply chains such as Wenmao will be affected .

This year, 2 At the beginning of ,IDC Released 2019 Global smartphone market report for the fourth quarter and the whole year , It is mentioned in the report , Huawei in 2019 Overstock inventory in the third quarter of the year , As a result, the company's shipments fell in the fourth quarter as expected .

It is worth noting that , In this year 1 At the beginning of , There was news in the industry that , Unable to use Google GMS service , The overseas shipments of Huawei mobile phones fell , Coupled with the impact of inventory backlog , At the end of last year, Huawei has cut orders in both upstream and downstream . Then came the news that ,2020 In the first quarter of, Huawei Hisilicon semiconductor's smart phone in TSMC AP Wafer production has decreased 10%~15%, meanwhile 2020 In the year , Hisilicon semiconductor in TSMC 7nm and 5nm Our wafer capacity has been reduced 20%. however , Then there was news that TSMC took the initiative to cut Huawei's orders .

And because the 1 The impact of the COVID-19 that broke out in late September , The whole mobile phone market in the first quarter of this year was very bleak . Guomingxuan, an analyst at Tianfeng securities, said earlier ,2020 During the Spring Festival in, mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market declined by about 50–60%, At present, there are about 5000–6000 High water level inventory of 10000 units . It is expected that Chinese mobile phones 2020 Annual shipments will decline 15% to 3.1–3.3 Billion parts .

Guo Mingfu said , De stocking is the top priority for Chinese Android brands , Therefore, all brands will actively promote , And if everything goes well , The inventory level may be 2020 In the second or third quarter of the year, it fell to the normal level , However, in the process of inventory removal, it will be detrimental to the shipment of Chinese brand new machines and related industrial chains .

obviously , For the current domestic mobile phone brand manufacturers , On the one hand, efforts should be made to digest inventory , On the other hand, the action of digesting inventory may affect the sales of new machines . Besides , At present, the domestic COVID-19 has been controlled , But it's hard to say when it will end , The domestic mobile phone market in the second quarter will still be affected by the epidemic . What's more serious is , At present, the COVID-19 has begun to break out in many overseas countries , This is bound to affect 3 Overseas mobile phone market in June and even the second quarter .

Huawei ranks first in China 、 The second largest smartphone manufacturer in the world , In this context , The news of Huawei cutting orders again came out again in the industry , It's not strange .

however , The market is worried about , The second quarter was originally the off-season of the mobile phone industry , Rely on Huawei and other non Apple manufacturers , If Huawei cut the order again , I'm afraid the off-season of the second quarter of the relevant supply chain will only be weaker .

Besides Huawei, the market has doubts about the future development of smartphones , There are also from Apple . Apple recently announced that it could not reach the previously released revenue forecast range this quarter ; Recently, key component factories have also successively revised the financial measurement , In particular, the supplier of RF components is the most .

Following Qorvo This month, 4 After announcing the reduction of this season's outlook on the th , Another large manufacturer of RF components Skyworks On 5 Follow up and reduce the fiscal forecast of this quarter on the th , The latest estimated single quarter revenue will be 7.6 Million to 7.7 Billion dollars , Lower than previously expected 8 Million to 8.2 Billion dollars , The adjusted median earnings per share was revised down to 1.34 dollar , More than previously estimated 1.46 The dollar decreased by nearly 10% .

As brand manufacturers and key component suppliers have successively sent out the revised financial forecast , It also raises doubts about mobile phone sales in the market . Upstream lens module supplier daliguang 3 month 5 Japan frankly ：“ At present, the market changes greatly , Whether the customer corrects the order , Still observe .” It is vaguely revealed that the order variables of Huawei and other customers are still large .

And last month , A analysis says , Daliguang 2 Monthly revenue may decline 15-20%, meanwhile 7P The kinetic energy of lens shipment is not strong , Also pulled down 7P Lens profits , Its orders will decline in the first quarter of this year 20%-25%.

Besides , Wenmao semiconductor, the world's largest GaAs wafer foundry service company, also said recently , The off-season operation of this quarter cannot escape recession , The situation in the second quarter is still not assessable .

The latest report on American foreign investment revealed , Huawei is unable to use Google due to the epidemic GMS Under the dual influence of service , Start revising smartphone inventory , At the beginning of this year, we mainly cut orders 4G mobile phone , This time it's down 5G mobile phone .

In Huawei's relevant supply chain , The most notable is TSMC . TSMC has never commented on individual customers receiving orders , So I said yesterday that I would not make any comments .

TSMC is the main OEM of Hisilicon chips carried by Huawei mobile phones , American foreign capital points out , Huawei's smart phone channel inventory is about 4000 Wan to 5000 Ten thousand pieces of calculation , Huawei's order cutting will affect TSMC's single quarter 2 Ten thousand wafers , It is the... Of this year 2 Ji TSMC 7nm Production capacity 20%; Consider MediaTek 5G The system is single chip 、 Other manufacturers in Huawei's supply chain may also cut orders , It is estimated that the overall impact will be on TSMC 2 About quarterly revenue 5%.

American foreign capital believes , Huawei's cutting orders has limited impact on TSMC films , In addition, base stations and Netcom equipment continue to increase , And medical applications 、 The demand for game display chips and apple orders continues to boom , Optimistic about the medium and long-term growth trend of TSMC .

American foreign capital emphasizes , It was previously estimated that TSMC No 2 Quarterly revenue will be reduced 3.9%, The previous forecast has not been adjusted at present , The target price remains unchanged 368 NT $ .

Industry insiders say , At the beginning of the year, it was reported that TSMC actively adjusted Hisilicon orders , TSMC 7nm Orders are already stuffed , Therefore, it has little impact .

edit ： Smart core - Ranger sword Part of the content comes from ： The economic journal,