Some impressions of the 519 plummet 2021-05-21

The slump on May 19 was undoubtedly the focus of many media attention in the past two days.Many media, including many of our readers, have talked about the reasons for the slump. One of them is that the slump may be caused by the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates ahead of schedule.

The expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates ahead of schedule comes from the recently released minutes of a Fed meeting.In this minutes, Fed officials mentioned that it will be necessary to discuss raising interest rates at some point in the future. After the minutes were made public, U.S. stocks and commodities fell sharply, and we ushered in more than 40% of May 19th.'s plunge.

If the Fed really raises interest rates, then all dollar-linked investment markets (including digital currencies) in the world have a very high possibility of ushering inA correction or even a bear market, but the key point here is when will the Fed raise rates?

According to public information, the Fed now has two reference criteria for deciding whether to raise interest rates: one is to see whether inflation has exceeded 2% for a period of time; twoIt is to see whether the unemployment rate in the United States is under control (that is, whether the economy is improving).

Only when these two criteria are met, the Fed has a high possibility of raising interest rates.

And according to the current data, although there are signs of rising inflation, the unemployment rate has not improved much, so I still think that even if the interest rate is raised, it won't come so fast.

Take a step back and say that if the Fed does raise interest rates unexpectedly for various reasons, it will take some time for the effect of interest rate hikes to be transmitted to the investment market..

So comprehensively, regardless of whether the Fed raises interest rates this year or not, I think there is a high possibility that the liquidity in the market before the end of this year will not be relatively stable.The big change is that the market is still well-funded.

Under such circumstances, abundant funds will definitely not lie in banks with close to 0 interest rate, but will definitely look for investment targets everywhere.The market-visible investment targets are still only: stock markets, commodities, precious metals and digital currencies.And these markets are not cheap right now.Even if money briefly exits a market, where does it go?I reckon it will come back to the market eventually.

This is my basic idea of ​​judging the trend of the entire market.

Of course, the trend of the market is definitely not 100% predictable, so in the process of moving forward, we still have to keep an eye on variousChanges in factors, adjust your strategy at any time according to the situation.

But so far, I think our strategy remains the same.Because the fundamental factors have not changed so far, we still have to try our best to look at the volatility of the market, including this crash.

In the message, a reader said that based on his years of experience and experience in the financial market, he has an intuition that the bull market is not over.I also have this kind of intuition, so when we encounter a sudden situation like 519, we should calmly analyze various objective factors, and then ask our intuition. If the basic judgments from the two perspectives are consistent, then there is no need to be too nervous..

This intuition of financial markets is not some mysterious inspiration, but accumulated over the course of the market.After a long time, I have experienced many accidents, and learned a lot of lessons. Slowly, painful memories will arise in my mind, and the torture and destruction I have experienced can be endured again.

I read Bao Erye's thoughts on the 519 crash today, and talked about the five bulls and bears he experienced and the moments of despair.He is glad that he gritted his teeth and survived those moments when life was better than death, and he was grateful that it was because of those hardships that he had today's wealth.

I think this should be the hardship that every digital currency investor must go through before harvesting wealth.

This is not our end, the second half of the situation is still ahead of us.