This is a IC The first in the history of men's struggle 9 Original article
Official account 【IC Male struggle history 】, Let's roll up our sleeves and work hard ！
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In recent days , Russia and Ukraine are at loggerheads , The situation continues to be tense .
2021 year 12 month 21 Japan , According to Reuters exclusive report , The Biden administration threatened , If Russia invades Ukraine , Economic sanctions will be taken against them , Just like Huawei , Implement comprehensive export controls on scientific and technological products, including chips . And American market research institutions Techcet The release says , Once the war starts, it is likely to lead to the loss of both the United States and Russia . Because Ukraine 、 Russia is a major producer of special gases for semiconductor manufacturing in the world , Once the United States imposes sanctions on Russia , It is bound to cause Russia to counterattack , Prevent the United States from acquiring key raw materials for chips . The White House has warned the US chip industry to diversify its supply chain .
How familiar this routine is to Chinese people ！ Over the years , As long as there is geopolitical conflict between countries , The way of economic sanctions is —— Prohibit the export of high-tech products and raw materials including chips .
In the field of semiconductors , This smoke-free war on a global scale has already started .
2018 year 3 month , US sanctions against ZTE , Let the people all over China know the importance of chips .
2019 year 7 month , Japan announced restrictions on the export of three kinds of semiconductor materials including photoresist to South Korea , Hit the lifeline of the semiconductor industry in South Korea .
2020 year 5 month , The United States imposed the second round of comprehensive sanctions on Huawei . Huawei is strictly restricted from using American technology or software to design and produce chips . This round of sanctions directly stuck Huawei Hisilicon's neck , It has almost cut off the road of Huawei's independent research and development of chips .
2021 year 9 month , NVIDIA Announces Acquisition of ARM. Both the UK and the EU have conducted in-depth investigations into the deal , UK regulators even plan to block the acquisition for antitrust and national security reasons .
In the near future , Memory chip giant micron technology plans to abolish its Shanghai R & D center 100 Above human DRAM Design team , The South Korean government announced to monitor the travel information of chip engineers . According to the analysis of professionals, both of them are worried about the outflow of core technology related to their chips to China .
Get into 2022 year , This global chip defense war is becoming more and more intense , Countries have increased their support for the semiconductor industry .
The United States 520 The chip bill to support the semiconductor industry has been passed in both houses ; The European Union also announced the introduction of the chip act , To 2030 Annual investment 450 Billion euros for semiconductor related industries ; South Korea will in the future 10 Annual investment 4500 $billion to support the semiconductor industry ; Japan will allocate nearly trillion yen to support the chip industry . Not to mention China ,2019 year 10 month 22 The second phase of the national integrated circuit industry investment fund was established ,2021-2023 The scale of investment in exceeded 2000 RMB .
What is the reason for the outbreak of this global chip defense war ？ How will it affect the global semiconductor industry chain ？ What is the essence of chip defense war ？ How can China win this defense war ？ Jacko will answer for you one by one in this article .
1 The reason why the chip defense war broke out
a Chips have become a resource that countries are scrambling to seize , It is no less important than oil .
A small chip is related to all aspects of social production and life . The military field , Fighter planes can't go to heaven without chips , The submarine can't go underwater , The missile can't hit the target . Aerospace , Large aircraft 、 Man made satellite 、 The spaceship , No one can do without a chip . Industry , numerical control machine 、 Instruments and Apparatuses 、 Automatic control system , Are integrated with multiple MCU chip . The consumer sector , mobile phone 、 The computer 、 console , The core is processor chip .
With artificial intelligence 、5G、 The Internet of things 、VR、 Rapid development of new energy vehicles and other technologies , Chip is becoming more and more important in the field of science and technology . Chips have been called “ New oil ”, Think of what countries around the world have done before to compete for oil resources , It is not surprising that the chip defense war broke out .
b After the outbreak, global supply is tight , Core shortage in downstream application market , The chip problem has risen to the level of national economic security .
Due to repeated global epidemics , In addition to the car chips mentioned by Jacko in previous articles （ See 《 Series ( On )： Core shortage , Where is the road of automobile chip 》《 Series ( Next )： This is our golden age 》）, Other downstream application markets such as industry 、 Communications 、 Data processing 、 Consumer electronics, etc , There is also a shortage of chips . Although not as free as the auto market “ core ” You can use , But the lead time of all kinds of chips is much longer than before the epidemic , The most exaggerated is even more than two years . According to supply chain analysis company Supplyframe expect , The global chip shortage will continue until 2023 year [1].
Facing the current situation of chip supply shortage , The United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea have increased their support for the semiconductor industry . The Biden administration has always wanted to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States , The Japanese government also plans to make chips locally . Everyone doesn't want to be controlled by others on the chip issue . Governments have raised the chip issue to the level of national economic security , Protect the chip industry as well as the national economy .
c Trade protectionism is on the rise , The chip industry has been “ Weaponization ”.
Economic globalization and trade globalization have been going on for more than 30 years , The benefits to people all over the world are obvious . However, we can clearly see the rise of trade protectionism from the development of the chip industry in recent years .
From the US sanctions against ZTE Huawei to Japan's restrictions on Korean semiconductor materials , Prevent NVIDIA from acquiring from the UK ARM Travel information of surveillance engineers to Korea , All of them reveal the signal of trade protectionism .
Geopolitics 、 Big power game 、 COVID-19 、 Digital transformation is the cause of the rise of trade protectionism . The chip industry seems to have become a weapon and tool for some countries to restrict the development of other countries .
2 The impact of chip defense war on the global semiconductor industry chain
After decades of development, the global semiconductor industry , A complete and mature industrial chain has been formed . Innovation driven by Moore's law and frequent mergers and acquisitions seeking to expand market share , The trend of industry head centralization is very obvious .
Semiconductor upstream EDA Software domain 90% The above markets are dominated by three major foreign enterprises ——Cadence、Synopsys as well as Mentor Graphics occupy ;CPU The chip market is basically dominated by Intel and AMD The two companies monopolize , Other manufacturers add up to less than 1%.
In the field of wafer foundry, TSMC occupies nearly 60% The market of , The total market share of the top five enterprises is close to 90%. The world's three major sealing and testing plants 、 The combined market share of anku technology and Changdian technology has also exceeded 55%.
The characteristics of the global semiconductor industry chain can be simply summarized as ： The upstream EDA Software and chip design are dominated by European and American enterprises , Foundry, China's largest single company in Taiwan , South Korea and the United States are second , The downstream sealing test is mainly in Asia , Most semiconductor materials are monopolized by Japan .
From the characteristics of semiconductor industry chain , No country can realize the complete localization of the whole industrial chain , The blockade of technology and talents alone is not conducive to the innovation and development of the whole industry , The chip defense war launched by various countries is harmful to the whole semiconductor industry .
This will not only bring additional costs and burdens to enterprises , Affect the market and sales of products , More importantly, it will weaken the innovation ability of the whole industry , Accelerate the internal volume of the global semiconductor industry .
3 In the final analysis, the chip defense war is still the competition of talents
The upstream of the semiconductor industry chain is mainly brain intensive labor , Include EDA Software and chip design enterprises , Its main productivity is the experience and wisdom of Engineers .
Jacko has been working in the field of chip design , I know this better . Chip design companies usually have a large proportion of R & D personnel , It is an absolutely talent intensive enterprise .
Wafer foundry and chip packaging and testing factory are mainly heavy asset enterprises , Its main productivity is the product assembly line composed of various semiconductor production equipment . Among them, the wafer factory has a higher degree of Automation , There is less demand for engineers and operators . The degree of automation of the packaging and testing factory is not as good as that of the wafer factory , There is more demand for engineers and operators .
It must be emphasized here , Whether it's a wafer factory or a packaging and testing factory , It is always people who control the production equipment . The role of experienced engineers and operators is irreplaceable , What distinguishes the capability difference between the wafer factory and the sealed test factory is not whether the equipment is advanced or not , It's people's experience and ability .
No matter which link of the semiconductor industry chain , It is talents who play a decisive role . Therefore, the essence of chip defense war is the competition of talents .
4 How does China win the chip defense war
a The development of chip industry will not happen overnight , The reason why the United States can dominate the chip field , It is also the result of decades of accumulation . We must be prepared for a protracted war , Carry out the chip defense war to the end .
b The most important thing for the development of chip industry is talent training . We should start with higher education , Pay attention to the cultivation of relevant talents in all links of the chip industry . Only a steady stream of talent input , To support the rapid development of the whole chip industry .
c Increase policy support and capital investment . At present, the development of integrated circuits has become a national strategy , Policy support is very strong . In terms of funds, there are also large funds that continue to invest , This is also one of the main reasons for the rapid rise of the domestic chip industry in recent years .
d We should still take economic development as our top priority , Keep an open attitude , Abandon trade protectionism . Adhere to the global allocation of resources , Create a good environment for foreign investment , Open the door to economic globalization and trade globalization , Show the responsibility of a responsible big country ！ Just as national leaders are celebrating reform and opening up 40 Speech at the annual meeting ：
“ We must continue to open wider to the outside world , We will continue to promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind .”
The full text after .
reference ：
[1]21 Global Watch ｜ giant “ There is no escape ”, The shortage of chips may continue until 2023 year , Why is the crisis here ？https://m.21jingji.com/articl...
Official account 【IC Male struggle history 】, Let's roll up our sleeves and work hard ！
