A possible investment strategy and a possible fuzzy fast stock valuation method

This article is suitable for non professional investors , This article does not constitute investment advice , The stock market is risky , Be careful when entering the market .

It's hard to make money from stocks .

Bloggers analyzed the investment strategies of various stock market winners , Including social security fund 、 Typical niusan （ Such as chenfashu 、 Conch Cement 、 High allocations ）、 Typical hot money （ Such as happy coast 、 Zhang Mengzhu ）、 Typical foreign investors （ Like sister Mu 、 buffett 、 Norwegian sovereign investment fund 、 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ）, A possible investment strategy is given ：

1. The ideal asset allocation ratio should be that the ratio of venture capital to fixed income does not exceed 1. This point refers to the Social Security Fund , The ratio of bank deposits of social security fund to national debt shall not be less than 50%, securities investment funds 、 The proportion of stock investment is no higher than 40%, For personal investment enthusiasts ,“ Greedy ” and “ poor ” In some cases, it is interconnected , stay “ Greedy ” and “ poor ” Find the appropriate dynamic balance point , It is very important for part-time investors .

2. Find a long-term good 、 Market capitalization 100 Billion -1000 A company between 100 million yuan . The larger the share of the company in the industry, the better , The higher the barrier in the industry, the better , The more stable the revenue and profit growth, the better , State owned enterprises are the best , Super brands are better . As a whole , Such a long-term good “ Small and beautiful ” Enterprises generally have high valuation , Under the influence of some non fatal factor （ Such as macroeconomic impact 、 Raw materials rose in the short term 、 The stock market is in a bear market as a whole ） fall , When the P / E ratio is lower than 5 year 30 Quantile value p / E ratio is a better time to buy , Buy separately , Cooperate with the cabinet phase band , Increase positions as you fall , Wait patiently , Wait until the stock price because of some unsustainable factor （ If you are in a bull market 、 Emotional hype and so on ） When it is pushed up to significantly deviate from the reasonable valuation, it will be sold , Note that the overall position holding process may last for many years , For example, Xie Renguo sticks to Tuobang shares 6 Make a lot of money every year 2 Billion .

Some things are the world of the slow one , Some are against the clock , Institutions usually buy the stock price first to the expected price of the next stage , Meet expectations or sell or increase positions , All sold below expectations , Overweight , For individual investors , Due to the lack of field research 、 Detailed analysis of industry and business 、 Quantified investment 、 Major news gathering and other high threshold capabilities , So imagine institutional investors 、 It is impossible to estimate as accurately as hot money , Therefore, the stock valuation can only be used to judge whether the stock price deviates significantly from the actual value , Here is a possible fuzzy fast stock valuation method , Take real stocks as an example ：

1. Dong'e Ejiao is not obviously bad in the short term , And there are potential benefits such as equity incentives , Using history 50 Quantile P / E ratio 20,2022 Expected annual profit 12 One hundred million yuan , Corresponding market value 240 Billion , Corresponding to the stock price 36.69 element , Compared with the current stock price, it is basically flat .

2. Shandong Pharmaceutical glass was affected by the overall decline of the pharmaceutical industry in the short term 、 Fund closing and redemption 、 The price of raw glass is from 2022 It has been rising since the beginning of the year 、 It may depress the stock price, issue additional shares and so on , Give to history 30 Quantile P / E ratio 28,2022 Expected annual profit 8.5 One hundred million yuan , Corresponding market value 238 Billion , Corresponding to the stock price 40 element , Compared with the current stock price 31 Yuan undervaluation , There are buying opportunities .