2 Michael smashed the minority milk sign

source ： New entropy （ID:baoliaohui） author ： Bletilla edit ： See you on the moon

A tragedy of dairy enterprise class who drank poison to quench thirst .

“ It is impossible to return goods , The milk was thrown away , Now I only ask for a refund .”

After learning from Weibo hot search that the illegal substance propylene glycol was detected in maixil pure milk , Fei's mood became angry . stay 618 period , A Fei bought two boxes of pure milk from Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room . After the incident came to light , She quickly submitted a refund application to the merchant .

The event originated in 6 month 28 Japan , Qingyuan County market supervision and Administration Bureau of Zhejiang Province announced , The propylene glycol project of two batches of maixil pure milk sampled a month ago was unqualified ;7 month 3 Japan , The State Administration of Market Supervision announced that , In Merrill and 14 Dairy enterprises with a high market share 23 Batch sample sampling , Only Michael's 6 Propylene glycol was detected in batch of products , The detected value is in 0.264 g / kg —0.363 g / kg .

This makes Michael fall into a huge crisis of trust . In little red book , Some users spontaneously created rights protection tutorials , So that consumers who are hesitant can get a refund as soon as possible ; In the capital market , Investors began to sell Merrill's shares crazily , The cumulative decline in the stock price of interest has exceeded 16%, The trading volume is enlarged to 5-10 times .

since 2008 After the melamine crisis in , Chinese dairy companies have been 14 There were no major safety problems in . The sampling results of the State Administration of supervision , So that the pressure is concentrated on the insufficient market value 20 Xinjiang dairy enterprises worth 100 million yuan .

stay 7 month 1 In the company's announcement in response to media reports on the th , Signature date “2022 year ” Be written incorrectly “2021” year . This further verifies investors' doubts —— Under high pressure , Michael's movements are clumsy 、 deformity , Yili 、 Mengniu's mature brand image forms a sharp contrast .

01 Michael's “ Essence ” A lie

“ Essence itself is not terrible .” Qian Cheng, food R & D Engineer 「 New entropy 」 Express , Propylene glycol is a common solvent in essence , And edible essence is more common in prepared milk , But do not add pure milk , Adding it is cheating .

With the illegal products entering the recall and refund process , Consumers began to explore a fundamental problem , Maixil produces illegal essence milk , Is it unintentional or intentional ？

stay 7 month 3 In the wechat official account announcement on August , Michael said the preliminary investigation showed , The illegal products are caused by the company's failure to effectively clean the prepared milk production line , Cause the qualified propylene glycol additive in the prepared milk to be mixed with pure milk .

But in Qian Cheng's view , This statement needs to be verified ：“ Even if it is the residue of the production line , The residue of propylene glycol in maixil is too large .” Abbott milk powder has been detected residual vanillin in the production line , But the content is only 0.00001716%, The residue of maixil is 0.03%.

“ A pure milk , Propylene glycol content is higher than that of prepared milk .” Dairy industry analyst song Liang is right 「 New entropy 」 Express , The cleaning of dairy production line should go through cleaning agent 、 clean water 、 Three processes including ultraviolet hot air , Maizer said that the production line was not cleaned, resulting in residues , Essence is less washed , Why is Michael washed too much ？

In other words , Michael's official response is unreliable , Enterprises are most likely to add essence intentionally .

“ Flavoring , Is to make milk more sweet .” Qian Cheng right 「 New entropy 」 Express . Consumer feedback shows , The taste of pure milk from maixil is indeed stronger than that of other brands , It even tastes sweet , But there is no sugar in the ingredient list , This was once regarded as “ magical ”.

And once it's true that it's illegal to add , The punishment that Michael may face will be more severe .

08 The melamine crisis in shocked the industry , But at that time, there was no testing standard for melamine , Illegal dairy merchants at least secretly add .

And in the Michael incident , The product contains mature testing standards 、 Essence ingredients specifically prohibited by the industry , This means openly challenging the regulatory system , Mix up the prepared milk into pure milk for sale .

In the vanillin milk powder incident in Abbott , Although essence itself is harmless , And the content is very small , Abbott still encountered 909 Ten thousand yuan , At the same time, the illegal gains will be confiscated 343.74 Ten thousand yuan . For maizeer, whose revenue from dairy products accounts for more than 60% , This crisis is likely to bring its business down .“ This time it was fatal , Michael himself is not big , The profit is not high , There is no moat , It's likely that I can't carry it this time .” Song Liang is right 「 New entropy 」 Say .

Before that , Michael is considered to be a local small dairy enterprise “ Class leapfrogging ” Your success represents , Let Mengniu and Yili consumers drink a new taste with a unique taste , And the essence gate smashed the fantasy of local dairy enterprises —— It is still difficult to move towards the whole country .

02 Only by cheating “ The encirclement ”？

This is a gamble of the bottom dairy enterprises to quench thirst with poison .

Macquarie pure milk is consumed all over the country , In their minds , This is a novel online celebrity brand . As a matter of fact , Maixier is the favorite brand in Xinjiang consumers' hearts “ Childhood memories ”, On 1993 In, he opened a baking workshop ,2002 Enter the dairy market in . Some Xinjiang consumers said , Milk supplied by small schools , It's all Michael .

But Michael faces a problem , I have been blocked in the Xinjiang market by giants .

Kaidu data shows , Yili and Mengniu's consumer reach is 10 More than hundred million , Brand penetration exceeds 90%. By 2021 year 6 month ,  The market penetration rate of Yili Normal temperature liquid dairy products has reached 85.7%.

In contrast, Michael ,2019 year , More than half of its revenue comes from Xinjiang , In addition, about 40% of the revenue comes from Zhejiang , It's not that maixil milk has conquered Zhejiang consumers , It's because Michael acquired Zhejiang's baking enterprise xinmeixin .

It is in the local market of Xinjiang , Maizeer also faces the competition of milk source of yilimong cattle .

As early as 2006 year , Yili threw close 4 One hundred million yuan , In Urumqi 、 Shihezi built a factory , Compete with local enterprises for Tianshan golden milk source . Mengniu invested earlier ,2002 In, he built a factory in Xinjiang , Meanwhile, Michael just started selling milk .

In the national milk market , from 2017 Year begins , Erie 、 Mengniu has started the cattle fighting , Zhongdi dairy 、 Chinese Holy Shepherd 、 The targets of milk sources such as modern animal husbandry were included by the two leading enterprises at this stage . At the same time , Maizeer is also trying to expand production capacity and establish its own milk source base , Although maizeer has established a sales network in most cities and counties in Xinjiang , However, due to the limitation of milk source and production capacity , Maizeer failed to expand its market share in Xinjiang .

We should tear up the market share of the two leading enterprises in the national market , It is likely that Michaele chose to drink poison to quench thirst , That is, by adding essence to pure milk , In exchange for the favor of consumers . From the financial report , from 2019 Year to 2021 year , The revenue of dairy products of Macquarie is about 2.5 Billion yuan to 7.3 One hundred million yuan , Become the absolute growth core of the brand , meanwhile , The proportion of contribution of regions outside Xinjiang to the revenue of maizer is less than 50% Rose to 67.93%.

The price is , Essence has triggered a wave of refunds all over the country . The most emotional parents are often those who buy milk for their children . Despite media reports , A small amount of essence will not affect health , But one “ take poison ” Style mentality is spreading .

Consumers of pure milk from Macquarie once sighed ：“ Always drink Yili 、 MENGNIU , I didn't expect such delicious milk .” But after the incident ,“ In the future, you can only drink Yili 、 Mengniu ？” The voice of began to spread among consumer groups .

03 Can dairy enterprises still cross social strata ？

Released by forward looking Industrial Research Institute 《 Analysis report on market demand forecast and investment strategic planning of China's dairy industry 》 in , Chinese dairy enterprises are divided into three echelons , Yili 、 National dairy enterprises represented by Mengniu , With light 、 Regional dairy enterprises represented by new dairy , With Tianrun 、 Local dairy enterprises represented by Wandashan .

The hierarchy of dairy enterprises is very clear —— The sales channels of the head are spread all over the country , The product line is rich ; The sales channel of waist is mainly in the regional market ; The tail can't hit the head at room temperature , All rely on the advantage of being close to the city to sell low-temperature milk .

The epidemic has further slowed down the catch-up pace of small and medium-sized dairy enterprises , Sealing and control is not conducive to the cross regional sales of dairy enterprises , And the shrinking consumer demand also accelerates the Matthew effect of the whole market , Except cheese , The growth rate of the whole dairy industry market is slowing .

however , Small dairy enterprises also have advantages , Not Mengniu 、 Erie , Is their biggest moat .

In little red book , Some bloggers sorted out the notes of the minority milk collection , Specially sort out the delicious milk products of non well-known dairy enterprises —— Tianrun pure milk is as thick as cream , Summer sweet milk tastes mellow , Pure milk smell makes grandma taste stronger …… There are user comments , Compared with the high-end product of Yili Mengniu, teresu Jindian , Many minority milk tastes better .

Food industry analyst Zhu danpeng is right 「 New entropy 」 Express , In the normal temperature milk market , Consumers always have a rigid demand for niche products . With the domestic normal temperature milk entering the homogenization stage , Online brand 、 Local brands also have the opportunity to enter the national market , Xinjiang milk is the representative ：

“ For small dairy enterprises , Regional differences 、 Flavor differences , Is their foundation .”

“ Chinese consumers are very diverse , Some like faucets , Some like the new and hate the old , Have curiosity seeking mentality .” Song Liang is right 「 New entropy 」 Express , The characteristic of small and medium-sized enterprises is that ants turn quickly , Product innovation is more flexible , Strong ability to cut into market segments , And consumers are also willing to try the new products they bring .

In the case of the essence gate of maizer , Although the overall image of Xinjiang milk has been affected , But the share price of Tianrun dairy rose instead . For small and medium-sized dairy enterprises , The door to cross class has not been closed , As long as they are tired of drinking Mengniu Yili, consumers still exist , New brands and new products will always have room for survival .