当前位置：网站首页>Great changes! National housing prices fell below the 10000 yuan mark

Great changes! National housing prices fell below the 10000 yuan mark

2022-07-03 17:00:00 【Big data V】

Reading guide ： Under the tide of property market deregulation , National housing prices have not yet reversed .

author ： a south wind

source ： National economic strategy （ID：guominjinglve）

The latest economic data is released .

recently ,2022 First quarter of 2009 GDP Year-on-year growth 4.8%. among , Consumption growth 3.3%, Industrial growth 5.5%, Fixed asset investment growth 9.3%.

so , investment , Especially infrastructure investment , It plays a key role in stabilizing the economy .

However , Real estate investment There has been no significant reversal , The average price of commercial housing across the country fell below the 10000 yuan mark .

data display ,2022 First quarter of 2009 , Real estate development investment growth 0.7%, The growth rate in the same period last year was as high as 25.6%.

meanwhile ,2022 First quarter of 2009 , Sales area of commercial housing 31046 Thousands of square meters , Year-on-year decline in 13.8%; Sales of commercial housing 29655 One hundred million yuan , falling 22.7%.

The decline of commercial housing sales is much larger than the sales area , This means that the average price of commercial housing across the country has begun to fall .

According to the data ,2022 First quarter of 2009 , The national average house price is 9552 element . And 2021 In all of the 10141 Yuan comparison , Decline in 5.8%.

From the monthly data ,2022 year 3 The average monthly price of commercial housing is 9253 element , go back to 2020 Annual level .

It is worth mentioning that , These data are based on official data , According to the sales data of the top 100 real estate enterprises of Kerry and other third parties , The situation may be even less optimistic .

Which cities have relatively strong housing prices ？ Which cities' housing prices have returned to a year ago ？

According to the latest report released by the National Bureau of Statistics 70 Look at the city house price data , House prices in most cities have begun to stabilize , A few first - and second tier cities have seen marginal recovery .

Compared with last year , Beijing 、 haikou 、 Shanghai House prices are relatively strong , and Chongqing 、 Hangzhou 、 Chengdu 、 Changsha 、 Guangzhou 、 Xi'an 、 sanya Other places still maintain positive growth .

It is worth mentioning that , Changsha House prices rose in the top ten . Not so long ago , Changsha also made it clear , Will not loosen the purchase restrictions , Become the toughest city in this round of property market deregulation .

In the official statistics 70 In large and medium-sized cities ,47 Housing prices in cities returned to a year ago ,28 Housing prices in cities returned to two years ago .

Among them , Shenzhen is the most conspicuous .

As a weathervane of the property market , The Shenzhen market is still in the valley , The year-on-year growth rate of second-hand house prices is -3.3%.

Except Shenzhen , There is no shortage of zhengzhou 、 Hefei 、 fuzhou 、 shijiazhuang 、 taiyuan 、 Harbin 、 guiyang 、 changchun 、 nanchang The first and second tier cities represented by .

among ,14 Capital cities , House prices return to 1 Years ago ,10 Provincial capitals return 2 Years ago .

These cities , It is also the vanguard of this round of property market deregulation .

Of course , The deepest decline is still Mudanjiang , The decline in two years reached 14.3%, House prices have basically returned 8 Year ago .

This is also the epitome of most ordinary prefecture level cities in Northeast China , economic slowdown 、 The outflow of population , Coupled with the constraints brought about by the rebound of the epidemic , The downward pressure on the property market is unprecedented .

Shenzhen and Changsha , Two typical examples of China's real estate market .

One is the city with the highest housing price in China , One is the trillion with the lowest house price GDP City , The house price in Shenzhen is about that of Changsha 6 About times .

What's interesting is that , In the face of the same continuous increase in property market regulation , In the past 1 year , House prices in Changsha are rising 2.9%, House prices in Shenzhen have fallen 3.3%.

Judging from the trend of the property market in recent years , Changsha property market has made steady progress , Shenzhen property market has experienced ups and downs .

Shenzhen also reached a record high the previous year , The next year, the trading volume hit 10 New low in , Why is this ？

obviously , The answer is not fundamental .

After all , Shenzhen and Changsha , The economic situation is good , And all belong to the area of net population inflow , There are no factors that cause the property market to decline due to economic slowdown or decline .

The trend of house prices in the two places is very different , One reason is land , Another reason is the demand for speculative investment .

firstly , Changsha has a huge supply of land , And Shenzhen residential land is in short supply for a long time .

Behind this , Urban volume may be one of the constraints . Shenzhen , Only less than 2000 Square kilometers of area , But it carries nearly 1700 More than million permanent residents , Less land, more people , It has become a catalyst to boost the rise of house prices .

However , from Built up area Look at , Shenzhen ranks in the forefront of the country , It is on a par with Guangzhou , And much higher than Changsha .

so , Less land and more people are not absolute , The problem is , Is there sufficient supply of land 、 What is the proportion of residential land 、 Is there any human factor in the imbalance between housing supply and demand ？

Even Shenzhen, which is famous for its small urban area , Land is not as scarce as imagined .

For a long time , The proportion of residential land in Shenzhen 20% about , Lower than the relevant national standards 25%～40% The lower limit of , And internationally, it is generally 40% above .

however , At present, Shenzhen has begun to increase land supply , At the same time, the proportion of residential land is required to be no less than 30%, This is a good start .

second , Shenzhen real estate speculation sentiment is relatively strong , Attracted funds from all over the country , Changsha passed the high threshold , Shut out the tenants .

Shenzhen is a highly market-oriented city , It is also a highly speculative area in the property market . The conservative criticism of the price rise in the past two years 、 Operating loan speculation 、 Asset securitization and real estate speculation originated in Shenzhen .

meanwhile , Shenzhen has a large number of investment groups from other provinces , The existence of these non rigid groups , Exacerbated the sharp fluctuations in the property market .

According to the shell Institute ,2020 year , National common ownership 7 There are more than buyers from other cities 50%, Among them, Shenzhen exceeds 80%, Changsha is only 15%.

This certainly reflects the attractiveness of cities with different energy levels —— Shenzhen siphons the whole country , The influence of Changsha is mainly limited to the province .

however , The difference in the regulation of the property market between the two places , It also plays a role in fuelling the flames .

Changsha , The reason why I got “ Let the speculation tenants have no return ” The reputation of the , The reason lies in 3 individual “4” policy ：

In Changsha , New houses are restricted 4 year , And want to invest in a second house , Must be in the first suite 4 Years later, , And the deed tax rate is as high as 4%.

These policies , With abundant land supply , Nature makes speculators invisible .

Changsha mode description , It's not difficult to hold down house prices , The difficulty is whether the policy is sustainable .

This pattern also shows , Anti speculation may not lead to a sharp fall in house prices , Instead, it can avoid the shock caused by sharp rise and fall , Let the property market and the economy 、 Revenue growth synchronized , This is the way of benign and long-term development .