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Just yesterday , Bitcoin broke through 15000 dollar , Bitcoin's reaching this price has aroused great attention in the circle . According to historical data , In history, only 17 The price of bitcoin is higher than this , this 17 It's all in 2017 year 12 month 7 solstice 2018 year 1 month 10 Within a month . And just this month , Bitcoin in 12 month 17 Japan , That is to say, for the first time 15000 The tenth day after the dollar reached the peak of the last bull market 19926 dollar .

Seeing this, many investors can't help but have such associations ： That's in this market , Will bitcoin be overtaking 15000 It peaked in a short time after the dollar ？

I don't think so , Because the market trend so far, I think it is still in the early stage , Not even in the medium term .

Let's look at the picture below ：

This is the bitcoin trend in the middle and late stages of the last bull market , There are two price points worth our attention ： One is 2017 Year of 1 month 1 Japan 911 dollar , The other is 2017 year 11 month 3 Japanese 5950 dollar .

And before the last bull market , The lowest value of bitcoin is 2016 year 1 month 18 Japanese 199 dollar .

therefore , From the historical data, the overall trend of bitcoin in the last bull market can be divided into three stages ：

The first stage is from 2016 Year of 1 month 18 The day begins 2016 Year of 12 month 30 Japan , After about 2 Years of time bitcoin slowly from the bottom of 199 The dollar is back to 911 dollar , The price of the currency has gone up 4.6 times ;

The second stage is from 2017 year 1 month 1 The day begins 2017 year 11 month 3 Japan , after 10 Months of consolidation go up , Bitcoin from 911 The dollar is up 5950 dollar , The price of the currency has gone up 6.5 times ;

The third stage is from 2017 year 11 month 3 The day is coming 2017 year 12 month 17 Japan , In just a little more than a month , Bitcoin from 5950 The dollar is up 19926 dollar , The price of the currency has gone up 3.3 times .

History does not simply repeat , But history will basically step on a similar rhythm . Any bull market basically consists of three stages ： Recovery and consolidation 、 increase steadily 、 Crazy pop . The last bitcoin bull market was like this , The next round will be the same .

Let's take a look at the bitcoin trend in this market .

As can be seen from the picture above , After the last bull market , Bitcoin in 2018 year 12 month 16 The day fell to its lowest point 3236 dollar . And from 3236 Dollars to the present 15000 dollar , After nearly 2 Year time , Bitcoin just went up 4.6 times , This is basically the first phase of the last bull market .

If we can judge what stage bitcoin is still in based on this increase alone , It's a bit obvious that it's a bit mechanical , We can also judge the current market and the general stage from another angle ： That's the overall market climate .

In the last bull market , from 2016 From the end of each year , The whole market is beginning to be 1CO Wrap up , It's starting to heat up , And after a year , It's brewing this boom to a high point . So the whole 2017 year , The market is in a state of extreme excitement . Because of this state of excitement , The market can reach its climax , There's no such excitement , The market can't reach a climax .

But now our market obviously does not have this kind of exuberant state , Not only did it happen a few times, but it didn't happen for a while （ Such as being DeFi The project is locked in high position 、 Unable to raise assets due to exchange events ） The blow , Many investors are still in a state of anxiety , So the whole market needs a lot of reassurance .

therefore , Look at it from many angles , I think the current market is far from the climax expected by many investors , Even if there is a bull market , I think it will probably be next year . According to past experience, there may be some callback opportunities in the process , But it's hard to predict when and how much this callback will occur .

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