Project cost management__ Cost management technology__ Article 6 prediction

Techniques and tools for project cost management Include ：

1. Cost analysis technology
2. Cost management technology
   
   
    

This paper introduces the cost management technology   The first 6 spot   

6. forecast
As the project progresses , In the project team, according to the project performance , Estimate of completion (EAC) To make predictions , The predicted results may be consistent with the completion budget (BAC) Differences exist . If BAC Obviously no longer feasible , Then the project manager shall consider EAC To make predictions . forecast EAC Based on current performance information and other knowledge , Predict the future situation and events of the project . The forecast shall be generated according to the work performance data provided during project implementation 、 Update and republish . Job performance information includes the past performance of the project , And any information that may have an impact on the project in the future .

In the calculation EAC when , Usually the actual cost of the work done , Add the remaining work The completion of the project needs to be estimated (ETC).  

The bottom-up aggregation method manually carried out by the project manager and the project team , Is one of the most common EAC Prediction method .

The formula ： EAC= AC+ Bottom up ETC.   namely Completion estimate = actual cost + The bottom-up completion needs to be estimated  . 

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Calculation EAC ( Completion estimate ) There are three most commonly used methods ：

1   It is assumed that... Will be completed at the budgeted unit price ETC Work . This approach recognizes the cumulative actual project performance expressed in realized costs , And predict all the future ETC All work Will be completed at the budgeted unit price .

The formula ：  EAC=AC+（BAC-EV）.

2. Assume that at present CPI complete ETC Work . This approach assumes that the project will continue as it has been so far , namely ETC The work will be based on the cumulative cost performance index of the project to date (CPI) The implementation of .  

The formula ： EAC= BAC/CPI

CPI： Cost performance index , CPI = EV / AC.

3. hypothesis SPI And CPI Will also affect ETC Work .   In this prediction , It is necessary to calculate an efficiency index determined by cost performance index and schedule performance index , And suppose ETC The work will be completed according to the efficiency index . If the project schedule is right ETC Have an important influence . This method is the most effective . When using this method , It can also be judged by the project manager , Give to separately CPI and SPI Give different weights , Such as

80/20,   50/50 etc. .

The formula :  EAC = AC+[(BAC-EV) /  (CPI x SPI )].

If predicted EAC The value is not within the acceptable range , Is to send an early warning signal to the project management team .