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How to quickly understand complex businesses and systematically think about problems?

2022-07-05 23:00:00 Alibaba Amoy technology team official website blog

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Thinking about complex problems is actually hierarchical , From the most superficial event , To the law behind the event , Then come to the structural mode of this problem , Then to values , Step by step . After drawing the cause and effect circuit diagram of your business system , Combined with this mental model , Think about the level of your thinking , Whether there is a chance to drill down to a deeper level .

Face up to complexity

We must admit that the world is very complicated , Just like our current technology still can't overcome novel coronavirus 、 Can't predict the weather accurately 、 Can not effectively control the abnormal fluctuations of the economic situation , Any attempt to float on the surface 、 The arrogant practice of wanting to understand and solve a complex problem without input , Finally, I can only accept the merciless slap in the face .

Back to our current business in Alibaba , With the expansion of market scale 、 Diversity of user groups 、 The continuous expansion and subdivision of the company organization 、 Accumulation of product history burden , Our business inevitably becomes more and more complex and difficult to understand . Like the famous Second Law of thermodynamics ( Law of entropy increase ) As explained , As long as there is no work done by the external system ( I understand it as a disruptive business model ), Our current system will inevitably continue to increase entropy .

But as a member of the business line , A more comprehensive understanding of our business logic is the basic condition for us to do a good job , We certainly can't be satisfied with just some information of point understanding , It is also unacceptable to understand that a business can only rely on long-term work experience , So here is a tool to help you fully understand a complex system :“ Think systematically ”. Before, I will try to use it to help me sort out the business logic in my hand , Feeling has a certain effect , Made this introductory summary , Hopefully that helped .

What is systems thinking

   Our thinking mistakes

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First, remember , From a very young age , We are taught how to solve complex problems ?

Yes , Is through disassembly , Disassemble a complex problem into several less complex problems , Then continue to disassemble the less complex problems into simple problems , Finally, by solving simple problems one by one, we can solve the original complex problem .

This method is very amazing , Also achieve the greatness of mankind , We divide the world into pieces, analyze them, and then merge them 、 Restore , Its way of thinking follows such a simple rule :“ The sum of parts equals the whole ”. This split thinking method is more effective in most cases , It makes people hallucinate , Mistakenly thinking that the world is piled up by separate events , Can't see the ubiquitous 、 Overall complex correlation 、 Interaction , This leads to the short-term nature of human behavior 、 Blindness and disaster . It's like “ elephant ”、“ Think about it ” And others have pointed out the limitations of this way of thinking , So in our work , If only adhering to “ Split ” Methods , Can't solve really complex problems .

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So here we introduce a method of thinking about complex problems from the perspective of the overall system :“ Think systematically ”, The core idea of this paper mainly comes from two books :《 The fifth discipline 》、《 Think systematically 》, If you finish reading this article , I think it's a little interesting , You can consider finding these two books to have a deep understanding .

   What is a system

Introducing “ Think systematically ” Before , Let's first confirm what is “ System ”.

“ System ” It's all complicated , But not anything that looks “ complex ” All things are systems , In the scope of our discussion , A huge wardrobe 、 A shell 、 A big bunch of flowers is not a “ System ”.

A system is a set of interactions 、 Relate to each other 、 Or the complex and unified composition of interdependent parts 、 A whole with a special purpose , The system will have features that its individual parts do not have .

What we say “ System ” It's all dynamic , For example, the following football team 、 tornado 、 A bee colony can be called a “ System ”.

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The system generally has three core features , Multiple parts 、 Interdependence 、 Specific purpose :

  1. The system must be composed of several parts , If there is only one part , It must not be called a system ;

  2. Each part must be dependent on each other , A single part cannot play its value independently ;

  3. All parts are integrated together for its purpose , Although sometimes it is difficult for natural and social systems to know its purpose .

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   What is systems thinking

For what is “ System ” After reaching an agreement , Let's take a look at what “ Think systematically ”. In order to understand , We expand systematic thinking into three different thinking concepts , It can be understood as “ Think systematically ” It is a way to have these three thinking modes at the same time :

  1. 【 Think deeply 】 We should not dwell on the surface of phenomena , We should be able to go deep into the back of the problem from the phenomenon , Find the essence of the problem ;

  2. 【 Think globally 】 You can't just order 、 Look at the problem locally , Be able to stand far away , See the overall situation of the problem ;

  3. 【 Dynamic thinking 】 You can't stay at a certain moment to see the problem , Understand everyone 、 Every business changes dynamically ;

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Systematic thinking is not just a concept , It is also a methodology for thinking about problems , The following focuses on how this methodology works .

Tools and methods of systematic thinking

For the first time, let's make a list , The scene on the left of the figure below is a typical system , How can we describe this system ?

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  1. “ A man is receiving water ”? Too simple , There is no clear description of what kind of system this is ;

  2. “ A person controls the faucet with his left hand , Holding a cup in your right hand, you are catching water , Eyes are observing the water level ”? Still feel the lack of structure , There is no clear description of the relationship between the various parts of the system 、 Dynamic 、 Dependent relationships .

Let's look at the abstract structure diagram on the right , Each node is a variable in the system , Different variables form a relationship , Through this picture , We can understand how different parts of the system are interdependent and affect each other , We can predict the possible trend of the system , You can also further think about how to exert a role in this system and affect the trend of the system .

Based on the above causal logic diagram that describes the interaction of various parts in the system , We introduce “ Think systematically ” One of the most important tools in : Cause and effect circuit diagram , Now let's talk about the drawing of this causal circuit diagram .

   Cause and effect circuit diagram

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One is used to describe “ Think systematically ” The causal circuit diagram of generally consists of three parts , Namely :

  1. 【 Variable 】, Variables are factors in the system structure we model , Its value changes with time , It's usually a noun ;

  2. 【 link 】, Links can be formed between variables , This link is the link that forms causal logic ( A change in one variable affects another variable );

  3. 【 loop 】, Several links may form a loop . If from variable A To variable B There is a link , When the slave variable B To variable A, It may be through a series of other variables , There is also a link , It forms a loop .


   Two loop models

Find the circuit in the system is “ Think systematically ” One of the important grasp of , So we will focus on the loop . We have two typical circuits , One is called “ Enhanced loop ”, One is “ Balance circuit ”:

  1. 【 Enhanced loop 】:Reinforcing loop, The variable in a loop increases or decreases , It will affect the continuous increase or decrease of all links in this loop , The trend of development is uncontrolled , Our common analogies, such as “ A vicious cycle ”、“ Heng Qiang the strong ” And so on is caused by the enhanced circuit ;

  2. 【 Balance circuit 】:Balance loop, The increase or decrease of variables in a circuit is negatively affected by other variables in the system , Make the variables in this system show a state of balance in the long-term dimension , For example, the most common example is , If the price of pork rises significantly , More people will join the pig industry , The pork in the next year will be reduced in price for sufficient supply , Finally, in the long run, the price will remain in a balanced state .

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In the back circuit , We will use “R” Indicates enhancement loop , use “B” Indicates balance circuit , In the link , Will use “+” Indicates the positive influence between variables , use “-” Indicates the negative influence between variables .

   Time delay on the loop

Another very important concept in the causal circuit diagram is “ Time delay ”.

The change of one variable affects another variable, which does not necessarily take effect immediately , There may be time delay in their relationship . An example that we can easily encounter in daily life is the problem of adjusting the temperature of bath water ( Especially in an unfamiliar environment , Such as hotels ), It's not easy to adjust to a suitable water temperature , Or the water temperature is too high , Or it's too low , Behind this is the middle between the water temperature regulator and the actual water temperature change “ Time delay ” As a result of .

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After introducing the concept of time into the causal circuit diagram , We add a “||” The symbol of represents that there is a time delay in the causal relationship between these two variables .

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The most typical example of time delay in work is : The impact of recruitment on the manpower gap of the project 、 The impact of code unit testing on product quality 、 The influence of learning on working ability, etc . The perception of delay is also one of the key points to help you understand the complexity of the system .

Systematic thinking 5 A basic model

If you are now the most basic tool for system thinking “ Cause and effect circuit diagram ” After understanding , We can refer to “ Design patterns ”(Design Pattern) Think about it , Are there some common models of systematic thinking .

Yes , Causal circuits are commonly used 、 specific “ tricks ”, These routines are what we often say “ Pattern ”, Here we introduce 4 The most representative basic model in .

   Quench a thirst with poison

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“ Quench a thirst with poison ” It describes how we give up our persistence again and again under the pressure of progress , Because of the delay on the link , Let's take chances , Finally, our system bears a heavy technical debt .

   attend to trifles to the neglect of essentials

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“ attend to trifles to the neglect of essentials ” Describes the conflict between the short-term superficial plan and the long-term fundamental plan , Because of the existence of the enhancement circuit , So that we can't deal with “ Efficiency optimization ” This fundamental solution raises the priority , Eventually addicted to short-term surface solutions .

   Target erosion

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“ Target erosion ” Describes how we are under pressure to achieve our goals , Give up doing what you strive for , But by directly reducing the goal to achieve the goal . Actual “ Speed up ” Measures usually take longer to take effect . It is this delay , Make us gradually turn to the upper balance circuit , Demand postponement and target reduction have become a habit .

   Growth cap

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“ Growth cap ” It describes that an enhancement loop cannot last alone , In a larger dimension , There must be another factor ( Or balance circuit ) Limit it , This is the growth limit .

   Public tragedy

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“ Public tragedy ” It describes the limited resources shared by everyone (APP Home pop-up ), Every individual ( Business unit ) All want to maximize their own interests . The more users , The more users trust the platform experience . As the total number of pop-up windows increases rapidly , When encountering the bottleneck of user tolerance , Consumers will feel intolerable , Vote with their feet .

Examples of understanding business logic

For some complex businesses I have been in contact with in the past , I'll try to use it “ Think systematically ” As a tool to help you strengthen your understanding of the business , I often find some new ideas when drawing the causal circuit diagram of the corresponding business , Generate some new questions , This process has helped me a lot .

I'd like to emphasize it here ,“ Think systematically ” It's just a tool , Different people , Facing the same system , Because the information is different , Different perspectives on issues of concern , Expectations for the development direction of the system are different , Will result in different causal circuit diagrams .

therefore ,“ Think systematically ” Is a help you constantly through zoom out、zoom in To complete 、 A systematic tool for looking at complex problems , Through the process of using this tool , Help you better think and understand the complex problems you face .

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   Alibaba applet ecosystem

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Return to the mental model of thinking

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Last , Add another explanation , Thinking about complex problems is actually hierarchical , From the most superficial event ( What's going on ), To the law behind the event ( What is the development trend ), Then come to the structural mode of this problem ( Explain the reasons behind the trend ), Then to values ( The idea that drives this model ), Step by step . After drawing the cause and effect circuit diagram of your business system , Combined with this mental model , Think about the level of your thinking , Whether there is a chance to drill down to a deeper level .

These are just “ Think systematically ” Get started and share , If there are students who are more interested in this methodology , Looking forward to communicating with you .

*   Expanding reading

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author | Lujia

edit | Orange King

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