How to quickly understand complex businesses and systematically think about problems?

Thinking about complex problems is actually hierarchical , From the most superficial event , To the law behind the event , Then come to the structural mode of this problem , Then to values , Step by step . After drawing the cause and effect circuit diagram of your business system , Combined with this mental model , Think about the level of your thinking , Whether there is a chance to drill down to a deeper level .

Face up to complexity

We must admit that the world is very complicated , Just like our current technology still can't overcome novel coronavirus 、 Can't predict the weather accurately 、 Can not effectively control the abnormal fluctuations of the economic situation , Any attempt to float on the surface 、 The arrogant practice of wanting to understand and solve a complex problem without input , Finally, I can only accept the merciless slap in the face .

Back to our current business in Alibaba , With the expansion of market scale 、 Diversity of user groups 、 The continuous expansion and subdivision of the company organization 、 Accumulation of product history burden , Our business inevitably becomes more and more complex and difficult to understand . Like the famous Second Law of thermodynamics （ Law of entropy increase ） As explained , As long as there is no work done by the external system （ I understand it as a disruptive business model ）, Our current system will inevitably continue to increase entropy .

But as a member of the business line , A more comprehensive understanding of our business logic is the basic condition for us to do a good job , We certainly can't be satisfied with just some information of point understanding , It is also unacceptable to understand that a business can only rely on long-term work experience , So here is a tool to help you fully understand a complex system ：“ Think systematically ”. Before, I will try to use it to help me sort out the business logic in my hand , Feeling has a certain effect , Made this introductory summary , Hopefully that helped .

What is systems thinking

▐   Our thinking mistakes

First, remember , From a very young age , We are taught how to solve complex problems ？

Yes , Is through disassembly , Disassemble a complex problem into several less complex problems , Then continue to disassemble the less complex problems into simple problems , Finally, by solving simple problems one by one, we can solve the original complex problem .

This method is very amazing , Also achieve the greatness of mankind , We divide the world into pieces, analyze them, and then merge them 、 Restore , Its way of thinking follows such a simple rule ：“ The sum of parts equals the whole ”. This split thinking method is more effective in most cases , It makes people hallucinate , Mistakenly thinking that the world is piled up by separate events , Can't see the ubiquitous 、 Overall complex correlation 、 Interaction , This leads to the short-term nature of human behavior 、 Blindness and disaster . It's like “ elephant ”、“ Think about it ” And others have pointed out the limitations of this way of thinking , So in our work , If only adhering to “ Split ” Methods , Can't solve really complex problems .

So here we introduce a method of thinking about complex problems from the perspective of the overall system ：“ Think systematically ”, The core idea of this paper mainly comes from two books ：《 The fifth discipline 》、《 Think systematically 》, If you finish reading this article , I think it's a little interesting , You can consider finding these two books to have a deep understanding .

▐   What is a system

Introducing “ Think systematically ” Before , Let's first confirm what is “ System ”.

“ System ” It's all complicated , But not anything that looks “ complex ” All things are systems , In the scope of our discussion , A huge wardrobe 、 A shell 、 A big bunch of flowers is not a “ System ”.

A system is a set of interactions 、 Relate to each other 、 Or the complex and unified composition of interdependent parts 、 A whole with a special purpose , The system will have features that its individual parts do not have .

What we say “ System ” It's all dynamic , For example, the following football team 、 tornado 、 A bee colony can be called a “ System ”.

The system generally has three core features , Multiple parts 、 Interdependence 、 Specific purpose ：

1. The system must be composed of several parts , If there is only one part , It must not be called a system ;

2. Each part must be dependent on each other , A single part cannot play its value independently ;

3. All parts are integrated together for its purpose , Although sometimes it is difficult for natural and social systems to know its purpose .

▐   What is systems thinking

For what is “ System ” After reaching an agreement , Let's take a look at what “ Think systematically ”. In order to understand , We expand systematic thinking into three different thinking concepts , It can be understood as “ Think systematically ” It is a way to have these three thinking modes at the same time ：

1. 【 Think deeply 】 We should not dwell on the surface of phenomena , We should be able to go deep into the back of the problem from the phenomenon , Find the essence of the problem ;

2. 【 Think globally 】 You can't just order 、 Look at the problem locally , Be able to stand far away , See the overall situation of the problem ;

3. 【 Dynamic thinking 】 You can't stay at a certain moment to see the problem , Understand everyone 、 Every business changes dynamically ;

Systematic thinking is not just a concept , It is also a methodology for thinking about problems , The following focuses on how this methodology works .

Tools and methods of systematic thinking

For the first time, let's make a list , The scene on the left of the figure below is a typical system , How can we describe this system ？

1. “ A man is receiving water ”？ Too simple , There is no clear description of what kind of system this is ;

2. “ A person controls the faucet with his left hand , Holding a cup in your right hand, you are catching water , Eyes are observing the water level ”？ Still feel the lack of structure , There is no clear description of the relationship between the various parts of the system 、 Dynamic 、 Dependent relationships .

Let's look at the abstract structure diagram on the right , Each node is a variable in the system , Different variables form a relationship , Through this picture , We can understand how different parts of the system are interdependent and affect each other , We can predict the possible trend of the system , You can also further think about how to exert a role in this system and affect the trend of the system .

Based on the above causal logic diagram that describes the interaction of various parts in the system , We introduce “ Think systematically ” One of the most important tools in ： Cause and effect circuit diagram , Now let's talk about the drawing of this causal circuit diagram .

▐   Cause and effect circuit diagram

One is used to describe “ Think systematically ” The causal circuit diagram of generally consists of three parts , Namely ：

1. 【 Variable 】, Variables are factors in the system structure we model , Its value changes with time , It's usually a noun ;

2. 【 link 】, Links can be formed between variables , This link is the link that forms causal logic （ A change in one variable affects another variable ）;

3. 【 loop 】, Several links may form a loop . If from variable A To variable B There is a link , When the slave variable B To variable A, It may be through a series of other variables , There is also a link , It forms a loop .

▐   Two loop models

Find the circuit in the system is “ Think systematically ” One of the important grasp of , So we will focus on the loop . We have two typical circuits , One is called “ Enhanced loop ”, One is “ Balance circuit ”：

1. 【 Enhanced loop 】：Reinforcing loop, The variable in a loop increases or decreases , It will affect the continuous increase or decrease of all links in this loop , The trend of development is uncontrolled , Our common analogies, such as “ A vicious cycle ”、“ Heng Qiang the strong ” And so on is caused by the enhanced circuit ;

2. 【 Balance circuit 】：Balance loop, The increase or decrease of variables in a circuit is negatively affected by other variables in the system , Make the variables in this system show a state of balance in the long-term dimension , For example, the most common example is , If the price of pork rises significantly , More people will join the pig industry , The pork in the next year will be reduced in price for sufficient supply , Finally, in the long run, the price will remain in a balanced state .

In the back circuit , We will use “R” Indicates enhancement loop , use “B” Indicates balance circuit , In the link , Will use “+” Indicates the positive influence between variables , use “-” Indicates the negative influence between variables .

▐   Time delay on the loop

Another very important concept in the causal circuit diagram is “ Time delay ”.

The change of one variable affects another variable, which does not necessarily take effect immediately , There may be time delay in their relationship . An example that we can easily encounter in daily life is the problem of adjusting the temperature of bath water （ Especially in an unfamiliar environment , Such as hotels ）, It's not easy to adjust to a suitable water temperature , Or the water temperature is too high , Or it's too low , Behind this is the middle between the water temperature regulator and the actual water temperature change “ Time delay ” As a result of .

After introducing the concept of time into the causal circuit diagram , We add a “||” The symbol of represents that there is a time delay in the causal relationship between these two variables .

The most typical example of time delay in work is ： The impact of recruitment on the manpower gap of the project 、 The impact of code unit testing on product quality 、 The influence of learning on working ability, etc . The perception of delay is also one of the key points to help you understand the complexity of the system .

Systematic thinking 5 A basic model

If you are now the most basic tool for system thinking “ Cause and effect circuit diagram ” After understanding , We can refer to “ Design patterns ”（Design Pattern） Think about it , Are there some common models of systematic thinking .

Yes , Causal circuits are commonly used 、 specific “ tricks ”, These routines are what we often say “ Pattern ”, Here we introduce 4 The most representative basic model in .

▐   Quench a thirst with poison

“ Quench a thirst with poison ” It describes how we give up our persistence again and again under the pressure of progress , Because of the delay on the link , Let's take chances , Finally, our system bears a heavy technical debt .

▐   attend to trifles to the neglect of essentials

“ attend to trifles to the neglect of essentials ” Describes the conflict between the short-term superficial plan and the long-term fundamental plan , Because of the existence of the enhancement circuit , So that we can't deal with “ Efficiency optimization ” This fundamental solution raises the priority , Eventually addicted to short-term surface solutions .

▐   Target erosion

“ Target erosion ” Describes how we are under pressure to achieve our goals , Give up doing what you strive for , But by directly reducing the goal to achieve the goal . Actual “ Speed up ” Measures usually take longer to take effect . It is this delay , Make us gradually turn to the upper balance circuit , Demand postponement and target reduction have become a habit .

▐   Growth cap

“ Growth cap ” It describes that an enhancement loop cannot last alone , In a larger dimension , There must be another factor （ Or balance circuit ） Limit it , This is the growth limit .

▐   Public tragedy

“ Public tragedy ” It describes the limited resources shared by everyone （APP Home pop-up ）, Every individual （ Business unit ） All want to maximize their own interests . The more users , The more users trust the platform experience . As the total number of pop-up windows increases rapidly , When encountering the bottleneck of user tolerance , Consumers will feel intolerable , Vote with their feet .

Examples of understanding business logic

For some complex businesses I have been in contact with in the past , I'll try to use it “ Think systematically ” As a tool to help you strengthen your understanding of the business , I often find some new ideas when drawing the causal circuit diagram of the corresponding business , Generate some new questions , This process has helped me a lot .

I'd like to emphasize it here ,“ Think systematically ” It's just a tool , Different people , Facing the same system , Because the information is different , Different perspectives on issues of concern , Expectations for the development direction of the system are different , Will result in different causal circuit diagrams .

therefore ,“ Think systematically ” Is a help you constantly through zoom out、zoom in To complete 、 A systematic tool for looking at complex problems , Through the process of using this tool , Help you better think and understand the complex problems you face .

▐   Alibaba applet ecosystem

Return to the mental model of thinking

Last , Add another explanation , Thinking about complex problems is actually hierarchical , From the most superficial event （ What's going on ）, To the law behind the event （ What is the development trend ）, Then come to the structural mode of this problem （ Explain the reasons behind the trend ）, Then to values （ The idea that drives this model ）, Step by step . After drawing the cause and effect circuit diagram of your business system , Combined with this mental model , Think about the level of your thinking , Whether there is a chance to drill down to a deeper level .

These are just “ Think systematically ” Get started and share , If there are students who are more interested in this methodology , Looking forward to communicating with you .

*   Expanding reading

author | Lujia

edit | Orange King