2 How to give “ Do not sell pens ” Chenguang valuation ？

source ： Alpha workshop Institute （ID:alpworks） author ： Wang Xiaomi

2015 After going public in 8 Year , Chenguang stationery shares rose by more than 14 times , Bring huge returns to investors , Once dubbed “ Stationery ” The title of . 

01

Once a top student

This year, 3 month , The company announced that , The abbreviation of the securities is changed to Chenguang shares （ 603899.SH）. 

Before renaming 2015 To 2021 year , The operating income of Chenguang shares increased 4.7 times ,CAGR（ Compound growth rate ） the height is 29.40%; Net profit growth 3.5 times , The net interest rate is stable throughout the year 10% about ; Average ROE（ Return on equity ） the height is 25.11%. As a contrast , Guizhou Moutai （ 600519.SH） Annual average of ROE yes 30.35%. 

source ： flush iFind, Alpha workshop finishing  

But in recent two years , In especial “ Double subtraction ” After the policy ,2021 In the second half of the year, the epidemic broke out in many places across the country , The production and operation of the company are obviously affected , The growth rate of revenue and net profit hit a new low in recent two years . 

The year-on-year growth rate of total operating revenue , source ： flush iFind, Alpha workshop finishing  

Net profit change chart , source ： flush iFind, Alpha workshop finishing  

Growth stocks are most worried about , It's Davis' double kill with declining performance . In case the stationery business really fails , Where is the next valuation support point of Chenguang shares ？ This rename , Whether it indicates a new strategy and imagination ？ 

02

From traditional stationery to office racetrack

2015 Since its launch in , There are three core businesses of Chenguang shares ： First, traditional stationery , It is mainly divided into office stationery 、 Writing tools and student stationery , At present, the revenue accounts for more than 50% , Contribute major profits ; Second, office direct selling （ Klip ）,77.6 Billion revenue scale , And one of the competitors 、 The gap between Deli group, with a revenue of about 10 billion yuan, is gradually narrowing ; Third, retail business , Including two brands, Chenguang life hall and Jiumu sundries Club . 

source ： flush iFind, Alpha workshop finishing  

Mention the traditional business segment , The public's overall understanding of the stationery business , The unit price is relatively low , Only suitable for a certain customer group , More like FMCG ; But in terms of consumption frequency , There is no general FMCG product high , Resulting in the turnover and growth rate of the stationery industry , Not comparable to other new consumer products . 

Chenguang's stationery business , It has its own unique business model . 

First , Tell the user “ My pen is easy to use ” The cost of this matter is relatively high . At the beginning, users don't realize it clearly , You have to use it slowly after a period of time , Change can only be felt psychologically , Subsequent dissemination will become easier . 

second , The stationery industry has a long marketing chain , Channel construction and user mental cultivation are very slow . Familiar in the market , They are all old brands . New consumption burns money and brings new “ Artistic ability ”, I can't walk in this industry . 

Third , Office stationery and student stationery , It is the core support of the industry , Long product life cycle . Students' stationery users cover the stage from schoolchildren to college graduation . School age children have low concentration , New and ingenious design of stationery , Attractive points that can bring pleasure to learning , It will also correspondingly improve the repurchase rate . 

After graduating from college and entering the workplace , Few people use learning stationery anymore . But for Chenguang shares , Demand is transformed into another form ： From student stationery , to turn to B End office stationery . 

Office direct selling , It is a new breakthrough found by Chenguang in the traditional student stationery business , It is also a risk hedge “ Tools ”. 

2013 Klip, founded in , It is the office direct selling platform of Chenguang shares . 

Since the listing of Chenguang shares , The revenue scale of klip , from 2015 Year of 2.27 Billion to 2021 Year of 77.6 Billion , Gross margin from 15% Slide down to 2021 Year of 9.37%, But the net interest rate is from -10.6% Rise to 3.1%, Scale effect is increasingly prominent . 

2022 First quarter of 2009 , The revenue of this sector increased year on year 46.40%, Continue to maintain high-speed growth . 

According to the data of Yibang think tank , Broad office stationery market scale ,2020 About in 2.26 One trillion , Still in the growth stage . 

Market scale of office supplies , source ： Zheshang Securities Research Institute  

If Chenguang shares enter the field of office business through klip , Make up for the decline in the use of writing stationery , Then cultural and creative grocery store business , It created a new scene of cultural and creative products . 

03

Creative scene

The retail business mentioned by Chenguang in the financial report , Mainly cultural and creative grocery stores , Including Chenguang life hall and Jiumu sundries Club 2 A brand . 

Chenguang life museum is located in 2013 year 5 Founded in , oriented 8-15 Year old student consumer group , There are many categories . 

But Chenguang life Museum from stationery 、 The strategy of cultural innovation to expand to one-stop shopping stores of all categories , It doesn't seem to be successful .2017 In, the scale of Chenguang life hall began to shrink ,2021 In the first half of the year, the number of stores has decreased to 60 home . 

Jiumu sundries club is from Chenguang life Museum “ Upgraded version ”. It is located in “ You can go shopping 、 Taobao ” Cultural and creative grocery store , Including hand stitching 、 Hand account stationery 、 Household daily use, etc 8 Large categories of goods , Committed to creating a scene 、 topicalization 、 Interactive experience . 

By 2022 End of the first quarter of , Jiumu sundry club has 472 stores , among , Direct store 321 home （ Proportion 68%）, Franchised store 151 home （ Proportion 32%）. 

According to Jiumu debris agency 2021 year 4 Disclosed in May , Its membership has reached 300 ten thousand , exceed 50 Wan is a paying member ,80% The above consumers are women . 

Jiumu sundries Club , source ： The company's official website  

Being needed and insecure , yes Z The core emotional appeal of generations of consumers . For this reason , Jiumu sundries club uses scenes in life to set up sales scenes , For example, learning scenes created for stationery products , Social scenes and travel scenes . 

For example, the graduation season in June and July , The store will arrange a small scene of graduation travel , Put the trolley case 、 Sun hat 、 Canvas bags and other commodities ; and 12 To the following year 1 Gift season in August , The store will create a gift giving atmosphere by playing theme background music . 

Jiumu sundry Club 400 Many stores , It is mainly distributed in high-quality shopping centers in the core business district of the city , The area is usually 150㎡ about . Press 2021 Annual number of stores 463 Home computing , The monthly revenue of a single store is about 17.1 Ten thousand yuan . 

Such achievements , Distance from famous and excellent products （ MNSO.N） Of 20.83 Ten thousand yuan （ Chinese stores 3168 home , The average annual income of each family 250 ten thousand ） There are gaps , It is also far lower than bubble Mart （ 09992.HK） Of 47.27 Ten thousand yuan （295 Offline retail stores ,16.73 Billion income ）. 

In terms of performance ,2021 The operating income of Jiumu sundries club in 9.5 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 70%; A net loss 2255.78 Ten thousand yuan , fell 46.39%. 

Although the annual growth rate is very high , But the volume is still small , And Chenguang shares 176 Compared with the revenue scale of billion , The proportion is very small . But in another sense , This also means more room for improvement . 

source ： The company's financial report  

The future of Jiumu sundry Club , It's not like the name of a sundry store to create excellent products （ MNSO.N）, It's also difficult to make bubble marts with standard trendy products （ 09992.HK）. Its ultimate form , It is more like the grocery store in Japan with cultural innovation as the main body LOFT. 

LOFT It is an old grocery store popular with consumers in Japan ,1987 Opened its first store in Shibuya, Japan . 

At present, there are more than 131 Physical stores of different sizes , Has been selected as “ Love at first sight 5 A Japanese department store ” One of .LOFT It represents the most authentic grocery culture in Japan , Behind it is the Japanese's admiration for lifestyle and the attention of their rivals' craft . 

2021/22 The fiscal year ,LOFT Our net income reached 1020 Billion yen , About us 50.4 RMB . 

Introduction of medium-sized stores , source ：LOFT Official website  

LOFT The target user group is young consumers in their twenties and thirties , Especially female consumers . 

At present, there are 4 Seed shop ： The large store is about 3000-6000㎡、 Medium sized stores are about 1000-3000㎡、 Standard stores and small stores are 1000㎡ following , Of the store SKU The number will be adjusted according to the size of the area . 

Generally speaking , near 1000㎡ In the shop , Have super 2.5 Ten thousand pieces of goods , Including stationery 、 Beauty makeup 、 Comprehensive miscellaneous 、 There are four categories of daily necessities . 

LOFT Where is the uniqueness of ？ 

LOFT The goal of , Is to become a customer “ There can be no fixed purpose , But I hope to meet something special ” The place of . This is also very similar to the development path of Jiumu sundry store . 

LOFT The goods are extremely rich , Even to the stage of having to select .LOFT More emphasis is placed on “ Exhibition ” Logical “ Commodity proposal ”, By grasping the needs of consumers in different periods , Launch different sales planning schemes . 

LOFT Planning activities , source ：LOFT Official website  

Different from Japan , China's cultural and creative grocery store is not so rich in products ,SKU Less than one tenth of Japanese stores , Product homogenization is also very serious . 

therefore , China's cultural and creative grocery store can only collect all known products , This is the “ A selection of goods ” The biggest difference between Japanese Collection stores . 

And pay attention to the scene shaping , and “ Provide a place to visit ” Where to go , In these two aspects, Jiumu debris agency , And LOFT There are similarities and differences . 

04

Valuation space of cultural and creative grocery store

As mentioned above , since 2021 Since then , Revenue of Chenguang shares 、 Both net profits are down , The concerns of the market mainly focus on several aspects ： First, the epidemic disturbance , Students take online classes at home , E-learning leads to a reduction in the demand for stationery products , The stationery market may continue to shrink in the future . 

Second, the number of births fell precipitously , The total student population will fall sharply in the future , The scale of the industry has shrunk . The third is “ Double subtraction ” Under the policy , The frequency of stationery consumption will decrease in the medium and long term , The growth rate of the industry has declined . 

therefore , The present , The most controversial point in the market is , As the most promising growth business of Chenguang in the future , But it's not yet 10 Cultural and creative grocery store with a revenue of 100 million , How should the valuation be done ？ 

Zheshang Securities believes that , The business is in its infancy , Based on prudent consideration , At present, it is not considered to be included in the valuation of business segments . 

But the view of Guosheng securities, which holds different opinions, is , As a fast-growing business , You should refer to bubble Mart 、 As a comparable company , To give 5 times P/S, forecast 2022 Annual revenue 13.4 One hundred million yuan , Corresponding market value 64.28 One hundred million yuan , According to the segment valuation method , Then the total market value of Chenguang shares will exceed 590 One hundred million yuan . 

Long term view , If we can reach Japan LOFT Of 50 Billion revenue , The business of cultural and creative grocery stores should also have about four times the growth space . According to the above calculation method , This part of the valuation will exceed 250 One hundred million yuan , It also pushed Chenguang shares to 770 Billion . 

Jiumu sundries Club 、 MINISO 、 Comparison of income of bubble Mart single store , source ： Guosheng Securities Research Institute  

After listing , Chen's three siblings and affiliated holding companies, the founder and actual controller of Chenguang shares , Accumulated reduction and cash out has exceeded 45 One hundred million yuan .2021 year 1 month , The Chen family reduced their holdings and cashed out more than in a month 15 One hundred million yuan . 

Affected by large-scale reduction , Then the share price began to fall continuously . Although last year 12 Month's shareholding increase plan , but 1.76 The increase of 100 million yuan is a drop in the bucket . Chenguang shares from last year 2 Monthly highest point 99.67 element , The lowest point hit 43.4 element , Nearly cut off . 

At present, the total market value has rebounded to 500 Billion , The profile reflects the expectation of the market for the future of Chenguang shares . 

Chenguang share price chart , source ： flush  

The traditional stationery business of Chenguang shares will face the risk of value dissipation for a considerable period of time in the future . And the ultimate imagination of new business , Whether it can support future expectations ？ Investors need to pay close attention to the changes in their performance .