A little experience from reading "civilization, modernization, value investment and China"

Recently read 《 civilization 、 modernization 、 Value investment and China 》, It's a huge benefit , I feel it necessary to record my experience .

Li Lu ,1966 Born in Tangshan, Hebei Province , Chinese American investor and hedge fund manager , Is the founder of Himalayan capital , Charlie • The main manager of Munger family assets , One of Buffett's successors . Published a Book 《 civilization 、 modernization 、 Value investment and China 》

Always feeling , The encounter between people and books requires all kinds of coincidence , At the same time, it is also very much like the encounter between people in this world .

When I first came into contact with this book, it gave me an intuitive feeling —— These are two books , A book about Chinese civilization and modernization , A book about value investment . But after careful reading, I found that these are two closely related topics , The process of modernization itself is actually an investment , The essence of value investment is to invest in the future 、 Invest in modernization . Now investment institutions 、 Individual investors are talking about value investment , Value investment is not just about finding the valuation differences of enterprises , And more is the right way to invest in value , Let investors continue to create value in the process of enterprises , By growing together with the enterprise , Let's share the return of enterprise value in the process of growth .

First, civilization

At the beginning of the book , The author first describes his views on civilization , The author believes that we humans are an ancestor , All developed from Africa , Later, they kept going to Europe 、 America 、 Other places such as Asia migrate , Combine my only knowledge of geography and history , It seems to see the long road of human migration .

Humans began with the same ancestor , Human beings have the same bad root , For example, greed, anger, delusion ; It also has the same advantages , dedication 、 altruism , Pursue truth, goodness and beauty , Of course, the author speaks with data , This gives us another perspective on the development of civilization .

1.0 civilization

The author thinks that 1.0 Civilization , The most crucial factor determining the development of civilization is climate . The worst period of the glacier season , The total human population once fell to 2 About ten thousand people , Mankind shows no sign of conquering the earth . But human beings have one characteristic , It's a big brain , Strong computing power , When the earth's climate warms , When it becomes beneficial to Biology , The advantages of human beings are particularly obvious . Climate warming has a characteristic , As it gets warmer , The more places suitable for living , So human ancestors went out of Africa and spread all over the world , The development of civilization in various places is relatively balanced , Opportunities are equal .

2.0 civilization

In nature 20 Among 10000 flowering plants , Yes 56 The seeds are big , Nutritious edible plants , Their distribution in the world is extremely uneven , this 56 There are among the species 32 Species are distributed in the flanking hills （ Jordan River Basin ）, East Asia 6 Kind of . Natural species 14 A domesticated wild animal , Southwest Asia has 7 Kind of , East Asia 5 Kind of . So in agricultural civilization , The luckiest thing is the flanking hills （ The birthplace of Western civilization ）. The second is the Yellow River Basin （ The birthplace of Oriental civilization ）.

2.0 Civilized ceiling

Observe that the whole agricultural civilization has always followed the rise 、 Go to the top 、 The cyclical law of decline , The reason is , There is a bottleneck of natural deficiency in agricultural civilization . Crops are produced by photosynthesis , Animal husbandry also consumes plants , Therefore, the upper limit of the energy produced by photosynthesis is subject to the land area and the unit output of the land .

The imperial examination system

The west is divided into many small plots due to the complex division of rivers and mountains , So western countries need to maintain politics through blood , And the position and honor can be inherited , This also makes the rising channel of society blocked naturally and inefficient . The imperial examination system uses fairness 、 Open 、 Select talents from all levels of society in a transparent way , The talents selected in this way can ensure comprehensive ability , Loyalty to the regime , At the same time, it is the first civilian to manage military officials , It can better ensure political stability . This is almost a perfect system , From A.D 500 year -1700 year , China is ahead of the West 1200 year , The imperial examination system is an important reason .

American continent

The first time man entered America was in BC 15000 year , At that time, human ancestors who came out of Africa walked directly to America through the Siberian continental shelf . but 12000 Around the year , The end of the glacial period , The sea level rises and the continental shelf no longer exists , It made American civilization separate from other civilizations . Although it has a good climate , But there are no wild animals and plants suitable for agriculture and animal husbandry , So the American continent almost missed the whole 2.0 civilization . The American continent is far away from Europe 3000 miles , Distance from China 6000 miles , But due to ocean currents , This makes the sailing distance from China to America far greater than 6000 miles , This also makes the probability of Europeans discovering the American continent much higher than that of Chinese . Europeans discovered the American continent half by chance and half by necessity , In Europe at that time , For the frustrated people who have no inheritance right in their family , America has become a better way out . Because Europe unwittingly inherited this fertile and huge part of America 、 It seems that the mainland can undertake unlimited population , It makes western civilization inadvertently bypass the Marcus trap for a short time （ Subject to the rise of land 、 Go to the top 、 The cyclical law of decline ）. But Europe has different colonial countries, such as Spain 、 Portugal 、 Netherlands 、 The British , But why did Britain finally dominate the Atlantic economic circle ？ The main reason is that other countries do not value business , Even use merchants as cash machines , and 17 Britain in the th century was indeed a mercantile society , The immigrant areas established by Britain are for the benefit of businessmen 、 The fundamental purpose is to protect private property , This is highly consistent with the fundamental goal of the New World immigrants to pursue wealth and religious freedom . Under such preconditions , An anarchism , The global free market, completely dominated by capital and businessmen, began to grow . Of course , If the population continues to grow , Finally, I still can't get around 2.0 The iron law of civilization （ Subject to the rise of land 、 Go to the top 、 The cyclical law of decline ）. This is the time , This round of longer colonial economic growth + The idea of freedom eventually led to the enlightenment and the scientific revolution , From then on, the free market + Modern technology has pushed mankind into a new stage .

3.0 civilization

Ricardo, a British economist, found , When there is social division of labor and Exchange , The value created will be higher , Because everyone focuses on what they are good at , The result of this exchange makes the combined value greater , Reached 1+1＞2 The effect of . Further infer , The more people participate in the single market, the more increment , So the free market itself is an economy of scale . This is the charm of the free market . stay 3.0 The biggest feature of civilization is the seamless connection between scientific and technological knowledge and products , And the efficient exchange of knowledge and ideas makes both sides of the exchange not lose their own knowledge, but also gain the knowledge of others , That's what makes 1+1＞4 The effect of , The products provided by technology are infinite , The cost reduction is also infinite , At the same time, it is perfectly combined with people's needs , Formed a modern economy with compound interest growth .

3.0 The iron law of civilization

The author believes that the free market is a continuous self evolution 、 A mechanism for self-improvement , Modern technology makes this process extremely rapid , because 1+1＞4 The cumulative effect of , Make more people participate , It's going to get better and better , So the largest free market will eventually become the only market , Any person 、 company 、 The final result of the country leaving the largest market must be backwardness , Because compound interest has a cumulative effect , The small closed market and the largest free market will become larger and larger . The biggest market is the only market , This is it. 3.0 The iron law of civilization .

Let's talk about modernization

For various geographical reasons 、 Social and political system reasons , Europe is closer to America in a straight line , So it is more likely than China to discover America , And Europe discovered America , Solved the land problem in Europe 、 Population problem 、 The question of resources , While these problems are solved , Science and technology have developed , Here we go 2.0 The age of civilization . And at the same time , China is closed to the outside world , So China missed the modernization process of the whole world , Become a backward country that will be beaten . Of course in the process , China has also been exploring its own way , With the Westernization Movement 、 Three people's principles 、 Planned economy , until 1978 Deng Xiaoping began reform and opening up , Begin to take the road of combining market economy with science and Technology , This is achieved 40 Earth shaking changes in .

So much first , The next part , Value investment , Add it next time